Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots: 2021 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season on 2021-10-03, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 19–17 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 16 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) paced the passing game, with +3.92 total EPA, and -10.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Brown (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +4.29 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-38.1% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (:59) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Brown · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +4.29 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Brady · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +3.92 total EPA · 48 snaps · +0.08 EPA/play
3. 3 K. Bourne · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.16 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play
4. 4 H. Henry · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.54 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.51 EPA/play
5. 5 L. Fournette · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.44 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Bolden · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.31 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Harris · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.22 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.11 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Meyers · New England Patriots · Passing · +1.79 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.89 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — H. Henry (M. Jones pass) (Q2 38:35)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Jones (Q3 18:35)
• New England Patriots — J. Smith (M. Jones pass) (Q4 15:00)

Field goals

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Succop (Q1 49:53)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Succop (Q2 30:18)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Succop (Q4 8:01)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q4 4:37)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Succop (Q4 2:02)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 3–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the NE 11 (Q1 49:53) — (4:53) 3-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the TB 11 (Q2 38:35) — (8:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 38:28) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the NE 26 (Q2 30:18) — (:18) 3-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion..

The third quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 7–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the NE 8 (Q3 18:35) — (3:35) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 18:29) — 3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–6. New England Patriots found the end zone from the TB 1 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 67-T.Karras reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q4 14:57) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the NE 8 (Q4 8:01) — (8:01) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the TB 9 (Q4 4:37) — (4:37) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 36th consecutive FG, t-6th all-time (Stover).; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the NE 30 (Q4 2:02) — (2:02) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 0:59) — (:59) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. [WPA -38.1% · EPA -0.86]
• New England Patriots (Q3 26:19) — (11:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 42-J.Taylor to TB 28 for no gain (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-5-R.Sherman at TB 28. 5-R.Sherman to TB 32 for 4 yards (42-J [WPA -16.5% · EPA -5.76]
• New England Patriots (Q4 6:10) — (6:10) (No Huddle) 16-J.Meyers pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor pushed ob at TB 9 for 30 yards (5-R.Sherman) [9-J.Tryon]. flea flicker snap to NE 10-Jones, hand-off to NE 37-Harris, lateral to NE 16-Me [WPA +14.0% · EPA +1.66]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 2:02) — (2:02) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. [WPA +12.1% · EPA +1.23]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 3:43) — (3:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans to NE 37 for 4 yards (27-J.Jackson). PENALTY on TB-13-M.Evans, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play. [WPA -10.6% · EPA -0.99]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q3 26:19) — (11:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 42-J.Taylor to TB 28 for no gain (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-5-R.Sherman at TB 28. 5-R.Sherman to TB 32 for 4 yards (42-J [WPA -16.5% · EPA -5.76]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 44:53) — (14:53) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. [WPA -7.3% · EPA -4.08]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 46:10) — (1:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-A.Brown pushed ob at NE 21 for 27 yards (31-J.Jones). [WPA +5.4% · EPA +3.01]
• New England Patriots (Q1 48:46) — (3:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield (43-R.Cockrell) [45-D.White] at TB 34. 31-A.Winfield to TB 34 for no gain (15-N.Agholor). Pass defle [WPA -5.9% · EPA -2.46]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 48 dropbacks · 45.8% completion · -10.7% CPOE · +0.08 EPA/play · +3.92 total EPA
• M.Jones (New England Patriots) · 47 dropbacks · 66.0% completion · +7.7% CPOE · +0.01 EPA/play · +0.61 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Tampa Bay Buccaneers generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.03 vs -0.04), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• New England Patriots: 11 drives, -3.28 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11 drives, +2.50 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Brown (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (TB) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• M. Jones (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q1 49:53 · NE 11 · Score 3-0
   (4:53) 3-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 38:35 · TB 11 · Score 3-6
   (8:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 38:28 · TB 15 · Score 3-7
   6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q2 30:18 · NE 26 · Score 6-7
   (:18) 3-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q3 18:35 · NE 8 · Score 12-7
   (3:35) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q3 18:29 · NE 15 · Score 13-7
   3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · TB 1 · Score 13-13
   (15:00) 67-T.Karras reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 14:57 · TB 15 · Score 13-14
   6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q4 8:01 · NE 8 · Score 16-14
   (8:01) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
10. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 4:37 · TB 9 · Score 16-17
    (4:37) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 36th consecutive FG, t-6th all-time (Stover).
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q4 2:02 · NE 30 · Score 19-17
    (2:02) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.