Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 7 Recap

Game story

In Week 7 of the 2017 NFL season on 2017-10-22, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pulling away with a 30–27 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 27 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) paced the passing game, with +15.10 total EPA, and +11.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +15.10 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-22.9% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Tampa Bay Buccaneers changed the game: (2:28) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 10-A.Humphries to TB 33 for 8 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-27-T.White at TB 33. Caught in flat at TB 25.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Winston · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +15.10 total EPA · 46 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Taylor · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +13.33 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
3. 3 O. Howard · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +11.40 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.90 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +9.93 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.99 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Thompson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +9.47 total EPA · 4 snaps · +2.37 EPA/play
6. 6 N. O'Leary · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.29 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.64 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Jackson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +4.37 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play
8. 8 L. Thomas · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.08 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.08 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — L. McCoy (Q2 39:26)
• Buffalo Bills — L. Thomas (T. Taylor pass) (Q3 26:43)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — O. Howard (J. Winston pass) (Q3 22:17)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — O. Howard (J. Winston pass) (Q4 10:16)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (J. Winston pass) (Q4 3:20)
• Buffalo Bills — L. McCoy (Q4 2:32)

Field goals

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — P. Murray (Q1 54:49)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q1 50:49)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — P. Murray (Q1 45:25)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q4 13:36)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q4 0:18)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 6–3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the BUF 32 (Q1 54:49) — (9:49) 7-P.Murray 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the TB 6 (Q1 50:49) — (5:49) 4-S.Hauschka 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the BUF 7 (Q1 45:25) — (:25) 7-P.Murray 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the TB 1 (Q2 39:26) — (9:26) 25-L.McCoy left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 39:26) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the TB 22 (Q3 26:43) — (11:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 82-L.Thomas for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline, 4 yds. into end zone.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q3 26:36) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the BUF 7 (Q3 22:17) — (7:17) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 80-O.Howard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 4.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 22:11) — 7-P.Murray extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger..

The fourth quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 14–13. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the TB 34 (Q4 13:36) — (13:36) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the BUF 33 (Q4 10:16) — (10:16) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 80-O.Howard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes]. Caught along sideline at goal line.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 10:08) — 7-P.Murray extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the BUF 12 (Q4 3:20) — (3:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline, 5 yds. into end zone.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 3:14) — 7-P.Murray extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the TB 7 (Q4 2:32) — (2:32) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q4 2:28) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the TB 12 (Q4 0:18) — (:18) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 2:28) — (2:28) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 10-A.Humphries to TB 33 for 8 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-27-T.White at TB 33. Caught in flat at TB 25. [WPA -22.9% · EPA -4.26]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 10:16) — (10:16) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 80-O.Howard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes]. Caught along sideline at goal line. [WPA +20.0% · EPA +3.34]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 3:20) — (3:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline, 5 yds. into end zone. [WPA +18.4% · EPA +2.97]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 3:14) — (3:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 10-D.Thompson to TB 31 for 44 yards (36-R.McClain). TB-36-R.McClain was injured during the play. Caught along sideline at TB 36. PENALTY on TB-36-R.McClai [WPA +15.7% · EPA +3.45]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 0:08) — (:08) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to TB 36 for 5 yards [57-L.Alexander]. Lateral to 34-C.Sims III to TB 33 for -3 yards. Lateral to 13-M.Evans to TB 25 for -8 yards. FUMBLE [WPA -13.0% · EPA -0.08]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 36:36) — (6:36) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at BUF 41 for -9 yards (56-R.Davis). FUMBLES (56-R.Davis) [56-R.Davis], touched at BUF 38, RECOVERED by BUF-24-L.Johnson at BUF 44. 24-L.Johnson to BUF 44 for no ga [WPA -12.3% · EPA -5.09]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 9:39) — (9:39) 25-L.McCoy left tackle to TB 48 for 5 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 46. [WPA -11.7% · EPA -4.83]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 2:28) — (2:28) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 10-A.Humphries to TB 33 for 8 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-27-T.White at TB 33. Caught in flat at TB 25. [WPA -22.9% · EPA -4.26]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 15:15) — (:15) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 84-N.O'Leary to TB 32 for 32 yards (36-R.McClain, 28-V.Hargreaves III). Caught in flat at BUF 45. [WPA +9.6% · EPA +3.68]

Quarterback report card

J.Winston led all passers in efficiency for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 46 dropbacks · 69.6% completion · +11.4% CPOE · +0.33 EPA/play · +15.10 total EPA
• T.Taylor (Buffalo Bills) · 38 dropbacks · 52.6% completion · +5.0% CPOE · +0.35 EPA/play · +13.33 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Tampa Bay Buccaneers +0.07, Buffalo Bills +0.09) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, +8.32 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11 drives, +6.52 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Winston (TB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Taylor (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q1 54:49 · BUF 32 · Score 3-0
   (9:49) 7-P.Murray 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
2. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 50:49 · TB 6 · Score 3-3
   (5:49) 4-S.Hauschka 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q1 45:25 · BUF 7 · Score 6-3
   (:25) 7-P.Murray 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 39:26 · TB 1 · Score 6-9
   (9:26) 25-L.McCoy left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 39:26 · TB 15 · Score 6-10
   4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 26:43 · TB 22 · Score 6-16
   (11:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 82-L.Thomas for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline, 4 yds. into end zone.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 26:36 · TB 15 · Score 6-17
   4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q3 22:17 · BUF 7 · Score 12-17
   (7:17) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 80-O.Howard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 4.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q3 22:11 · BUF 15 · Score 13-17
   7-P.Murray extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
10. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 13:36 · TB 34 · Score 13-20
    (13:36) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 10:16 · BUF 33 · Score 19-20
    (10:16) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 80-O.Howard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes]. Caught along sideline at goal line.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q4 10:08 · BUF 15 · Score 20-20
    7-P.Murray extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 3:20 · BUF 12 · Score 26-20
    (3:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline, 5 yds. into end zone.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q4 3:14 · BUF 15 · Score 27-20
    7-P.Murray extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
15. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 2:32 · TB 7 · Score 27-26
    (2:32) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 2:28 · TB 15 · Score 27-27
    4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
17. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 0:18 · TB 12 · Score 27-30
    (:18) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.