Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 1 Recap

Game story

In Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-09-11, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took care of business against the Atlanta Falcons, pulling away with a 31–24 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 22 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with +8.23 total EPA, and +0.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +19.27 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+14.6% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (4:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman to TB 10 for 47 yards (23-C.Conte).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Winston · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +19.27 total EPA · 36 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +8.23 total EPA · 45 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +6.43 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.92 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Coleman · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +5.65 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.94 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Sims · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +4.55 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.52 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.14 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.36 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Seferian-Jenkins · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.96 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.96 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Sanu (M. Ryan pass) (Q1 45:16)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — B. Myers (J. Winston pass) (Q2 40:31)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Sims (J. Winston pass) (Q2 30:24)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — A. Seferian-Jenkins (J. Winston pass) (Q3 28:02)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (J. Winston pass) (Q3 20:21)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q3 16:42)

Field goals

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Aguayo (Q1 54:57)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q1 52:13)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q2 31:50)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q4 4:59)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the ATL 25 (Q1 54:57) — (9:57) 19-R.Aguayo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 16 (Q1 52:13) — (7:13) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 5 (Q1 45:16) — (:16) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q1 45:11) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 14–3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 4 (Q2 40:31) — (10:31) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 82-B.Myers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 40:25) — 19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 16 (Q2 31:50) — (1:50) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 23 (Q2 30:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 34-C.Sims for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 30:14) — 19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger..

The third quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 14–8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 30 (Q3 28:02) — (13:02) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q3 27:54) — 19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 45 (Q3 20:21) — (5:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q3 20:12) — 19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 25 (Q3 16:42) — (1:42) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons registered a safety from the TB 2 (Q3 16:35) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Ryan pass to 12-M.Sanu is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 3–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 11 (Q4 4:59) — (4:59) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 34:15) — (4:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman to TB 10 for 47 yards (23-C.Conte). [WPA +14.6% · EPA +3.96]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 54:52) — (9:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 12-M.Sanu to TB 16 for 59 yards (23-C.Conte). [WPA +12.7% · EPA +3.31]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 30:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 34-C.Sims for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.6% · EPA +3.64]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 56:30) — (11:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins. PENALTY on ATL-59-D.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at TB 44 - No Play. [WPA +10.6% · EPA +2.88]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 47:41) — (2:41) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 83-V.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Trufant at TB 22. 21-D.Trufant to TB 13 for 9 yards (34-C.Sims). Penalty on TB-83-V.Jackson, Illegal Formatio [WPA -10.1% · EPA -3.50]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q3 20:21) — (5:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.7% · EPA +4.82]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 34:15) — (4:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman to TB 10 for 47 yards (23-C.Conte). [WPA +14.6% · EPA +3.96]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 30:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 34-C.Sims for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.6% · EPA +3.64]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 47:41) — (2:41) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 83-V.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Trufant at TB 22. 21-D.Trufant to TB 13 for 9 yards (34-C.Sims). Penalty on TB-83-V.Jackson, Illegal Formatio [WPA -10.1% · EPA -3.50]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 45 dropbacks · 60.0% completion · +0.6% CPOE · +0.18 EPA/play · +8.23 total EPA
• J.Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 36 dropbacks · 63.9% completion · +11.2% CPOE · +0.54 EPA/play · +19.27 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Tampa Bay Buccaneers generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.11 vs -0.02), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Atlanta Falcons: 12 drives, -1.64 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 12 drives, +8.93 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Winston (TB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q1 54:57 · ATL 25 · Score 3-0
   (9:57) 19-R.Aguayo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
2. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 52:13 · TB 16 · Score 3-3
   (7:13) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
3. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 45:16 · TB 5 · Score 3-9
   (:16) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 45:11 · TB 15 · Score 3-10
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 40:31 · ATL 4 · Score 9-10
   (10:31) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 82-B.Myers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 40:25 · ATL 15 · Score 10-10
   19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
7. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 31:50 · TB 16 · Score 10-13
   (1:50) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 30:24 · ATL 23 · Score 16-13
   (:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 34-C.Sims for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 30:14 · ATL 15 · Score 17-13
   19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q3 28:02 · ATL 30 · Score 23-13
    (13:02) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q3 27:54 · ATL 15 · Score 24-13
    19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q3 20:21 · ATL 45 · Score 30-13
    (5:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q3 20:12 · ATL 15 · Score 31-13
    19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
14. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 16:42 · TB 25 · Score 31-19
    (1:42) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Atlanta Falcons Safety (+2) — Q3 16:35 · TB 2 · Score 31-21
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Ryan pass to 12-M.Sanu is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
16. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 4:59 · TB 11 · Score 31-24
    (4:59) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.