San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks: 2011 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-12-24, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business against the Seattle Seahawks, pulling away with a 19–17 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Jackson (Seattle Seahawks) paced the passing game, with -4.31 total EPA, and -2.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +3.79 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-40.6% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Seattle Seahawks changed the game: (1:18) 7-T.Jackson sacked at SF 49 for -1 yards (54-L.Grant). FUMBLES (54-L.Grant) [54-L.Grant], RECOVERED by SF-31-D.Whitner at SF 36. 31-D.Whitner to SF 36 for no gain (61-L.Jeanpierre).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Crabtree · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +3.79 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Lynch · Seattle Seahawks · Rushing · +3.44 total EPA · 21 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Lockette · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +2.95 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.48 EPA/play
4. 4 V. Davis · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +2.82 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Hunter · San Francisco 49ers · Rushing · +1.81 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.15 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Butler · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +1.70 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.85 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Smith · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +1.18 total EPA · 33 snaps · +0.04 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Smith · San Francisco 49ers · Rushing · +1.13 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.56 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Seattle Seahawks — D. Baldwin (T. Jackson pass) (Q1 56:42)
• San Francisco 49ers — F. Gore (Q3 26:08)
• Seattle Seahawks — M. Lynch (Q4 6:47)

Field goals

• San Francisco 49ers — D. Akers (Q2 44:33)
• Seattle Seahawks — S. Hauschka (Q2 31:33)
• San Francisco 49ers — D. Akers (Q3 19:08)
• San Francisco 49ers — D. Akers (Q4 12:42)
• San Francisco 49ers — D. Akers (Q4 3:01)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Seattle Seahawks won the period 7–0. Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the SF 13 (Q1 56:42) — (11:42) 7-T.Jackson pass short left to 15-D.Baldwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the SF 2 (Q1 56:35) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the SEA 35 (Q2 44:33) — (14:33) 2-D.Akers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; Seattle Seahawks connected on a field goal from the SF 1 (Q2 31:33) — (1:33) 4-S.Hauschka 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan..

The third quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 10–0. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the SEA 4 (Q3 26:08) — (11:08) 75-A.Boone, 90-I.Sopoaga and 74-J.Staley reported in as eligible. 21-F.Gore right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the SEA 2 (Q3 26:01) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the SEA 11 (Q3 19:08) — (4:08) 2-D.Akers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee..

The fourth quarter: Seattle Seahawks won the period 7–6. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the SEA 26 (Q4 12:42) — (12:42) 2-D.Akers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the SF 4 (Q4 6:47) — (6:47) 24-M.Lynch left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the SF 2 (Q4 6:41) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the SEA 21 (Q4 3:01) — (3:01) 2-D.Akers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 1:18) — (1:18) 7-T.Jackson sacked at SF 49 for -1 yards (54-L.Grant). FUMBLES (54-L.Grant) [54-L.Grant], RECOVERED by SF-31-D.Whitner at SF 36. 31-D.Whitner to SF 36 for no gain (61-L.Jeanpierre). [WPA -40.6% · EPA -2.73]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 6:58) — (6:58) 4-A.Lee punt is BLOCKED by 55-H.Farwell, Center-86-B.Jennings, recovered by SF-43-C.Jones at SF 4. 43-C.Jones to SF 4 for no gain (42-C.Maragos). [WPA -26.9% · EPA -4.99]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 5:51) — (5:51) 11-Alex Smith pass deep left to 15-M.Crabtree to SEA 28 for 41 yards (39-B.Browner). [WPA +20.0% · EPA +3.30]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 0:52) — (:52) 4-A.Lee punts 60 yards to SEA 2, Center-86-B.Jennings. 33-L.Washington to SEA 26 for 24 yards (54-L.Grant). [WPA -19.9% · EPA -0.12]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 0:18) — (:18) (Shotgun) 7-T.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Miller. [WPA -16.2% · EPA -1.23]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 6:58) — (6:58) 4-A.Lee punt is BLOCKED by 55-H.Farwell, Center-86-B.Jennings, recovered by SF-43-C.Jones at SF 4. 43-C.Jones to SF 4 for no gain (42-C.Maragos). [WPA -26.9% · EPA -4.99]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q3 27:41) — (12:41) 75-A.Boone and 90-I.Sopoaga reported in as eligible. 11-Alex Smith pass deep right to 85-V.Davis ran ob at SEA 24 for 16 yards. Penalty on SEA-92-B.Mebane, Defensive Holding, declined. [WPA +10.9% · EPA +4.05]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q1 59:57) — (14:57) 7-T.Jackson pass deep right to 83-R.Lockette to SF 36 for 44 yards (22-C.Rogers). [WPA +10.4% · EPA +3.51]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 52:50) — (7:50) 2-D.Akers 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee. [WPA -7.2% · EPA -3.47]

Quarterback report card

T.Jackson led all passers in efficiency for Seattle Seahawks, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Jackson (Seattle Seahawks) · 35 dropbacks · 42.9% completion · -2.8% CPOE · -0.12 EPA/play · -4.31 total EPA
• A.Smith (San Francisco 49ers) · 33 dropbacks · 42.4% completion · -3.8% CPOE · +0.04 EPA/play · +1.18 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, San Francisco 49ers generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.02 vs -0.06), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Seattle Seahawks: 11 drives, -4.67 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 11 drives, +1.44 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• San Francisco 49ers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• M. Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Smith (SF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q1 56:42 · SF 13 · Score 0-6
   (11:42) 7-T.Jackson pass short left to 15-D.Baldwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q1 56:35 · SF 2 · Score 0-7
   4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
3. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 44:33 · SEA 35 · Score 3-7
   (14:33) 2-D.Akers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
4. Seattle Seahawks FG (+3) — Q2 31:33 · SF 1 · Score 3-10
   (1:33) 4-S.Hauschka 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
5. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q3 26:08 · SEA 4 · Score 9-10
   (11:08) 75-A.Boone, 90-I.Sopoaga and 74-J.Staley reported in as eligible. 21-F.Gore right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q3 26:01 · SEA 2 · Score 10-10
   2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
7. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q3 19:08 · SEA 11 · Score 13-10
   (4:08) 2-D.Akers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
8. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 12:42 · SEA 26 · Score 16-10
   (12:42) 2-D.Akers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
9. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q4 6:47 · SF 4 · Score 16-16
   (6:47) 24-M.Lynch left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q4 6:41 · SF 2 · Score 16-17
    4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
11. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 3:01 · SEA 21 · Score 19-17
    (3:01) 2-D.Akers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.