San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-11-27, the Miami Dolphins took care of business against the San Francisco 49ers, pulling away with a 31–24 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) paced the passing game, with +6.34 total EPA, and +1.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.21 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-19.1% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when San Francisco 49ers changed the game: (:02) 7-C.Kaepernick scrambles right end to MIA 2 for 4 yards (93-N.Suh, 47-K.Alonso).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Tannehill · Miami Dolphins · Passing · +14.21 total EPA · 35 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
2. 2 C. Kaepernick · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +6.34 total EPA · 57 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Harper · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +5.28 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.32 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Sims · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +4.98 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.24 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Stills · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +4.52 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Landry · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +3.22 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play
7. 7 L. Carroo · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +2.79 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.79 EPA/play
8. 8 V. McDonald · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +2.73 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• San Francisco 49ers — C. Hyde (C. Kaepernick pass) (Q1 54:51)
• Miami Dolphins — J. Ajayi (Q2 42:28)
• Miami Dolphins — D. Sims (R. Tannehill pass) (Q2 32:26)
• San Francisco 49ers — G. Celek (C. Kaepernick pass) (Q3 22:39)
• Miami Dolphins — K. Stills (R. Tannehill pass) (Q3 16:40)
• Miami Dolphins — L. Carroo (R. Tannehill pass) (Q4 11:41)
• San Francisco 49ers — T. Smith (C. Kaepernick pass) (Q4 7:52)

Field goals

• Miami Dolphins — A. Franks (Q3 27:34)
• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q4 2:20)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 7–0. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the MIA 11 (Q1 54:51) — (9:51) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 28-C.Hyde for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q1 54:46) — 4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion..

The second quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 14–0. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the SF 2 (Q2 42:28) — (12:28) 64-J.Brendel reported in as eligible. 23-J.Ajayi left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q2 42:22) — 3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the SF 16 (Q2 32:26) — (2:26) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 80-D.Sims for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q2 32:17) — 3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr..

The third quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 10–7. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the SF 6 (Q3 27:34) — (12:34) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the MIA 4 (Q3 22:39) — (7:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q3 22:34) — 4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the SF 43 (Q3 16:40) — (1:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q3 16:33) — 3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr..

The fourth quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 10–7. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the SF 15 (Q4 11:41) — (11:41) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 88-L.Carroo for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q4 11:31) — 3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the MIA 1 (Q4 7:52) — (7:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 82-T.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q4 7:42) — 4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the MIA 18 (Q4 2:20) — (2:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 0:02) — (:02) 7-C.Kaepernick scrambles right end to MIA 2 for 4 yards (93-N.Suh, 47-K.Alonso). [WPA -19.1% · EPA -2.55]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 39:22) — (9:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short middle to 88-G.Celek to MIA 15 for 16 yards (41-B.Maxwell, 30-B.Rambo) [93-N.Suh]. FUMBLES (41-B.Maxwell), RECOVERED by MIA-47-K.Alonso at MIA 16. [WPA -11.9% · EPA -4.38]
• Miami Dolphins (Q3 16:40) — (1:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.2% · EPA +4.57]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q3 30:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right intended for 82-T.Smith INTERCEPTED by 47-K.Alonso (36-T.Lippett) at SF 36. 47-K.Alonso to SF 26 for 10 yards (11-Q.Patton). [WPA -10.5% · EPA -4.94]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 0:50) — (:50) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short middle to 82-T.Smith ran ob at MIA 46 for 17 yards. [WPA +9.9% · EPA +1.66]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q3 30:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right intended for 82-T.Smith INTERCEPTED by 47-K.Alonso (36-T.Lippett) at SF 36. 47-K.Alonso to SF 26 for 10 yards (11-Q.Patton). [WPA -10.5% · EPA -4.94]
• Miami Dolphins (Q3 16:40) — (1:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.2% · EPA +4.57]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 39:22) — (9:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short middle to 88-G.Celek to MIA 15 for 16 yards (41-B.Maxwell, 30-B.Rambo) [93-N.Suh]. FUMBLES (41-B.Maxwell), RECOVERED by MIA-47-K.Alonso at MIA 16. [WPA -11.9% · EPA -4.38]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 46:23) — (1:23) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 11-D.Parker to SF 42 for 46 yards (26-T.Brock). [WPA +7.5% · EPA +4.09]

Quarterback report card

C.Kaepernick led all passers in efficiency for San Francisco 49ers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) · 57 dropbacks · 50.9% completion · +1.4% CPOE · +0.11 EPA/play · +6.34 total EPA
• R.Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) · 35 dropbacks · 57.1% completion · +6.6% CPOE · +0.41 EPA/play · +14.21 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Miami Dolphins held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.14 vs +0.06), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Miami Dolphins: 11 drives, +10.27 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 11 drives, +5.43 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Miami Dolphins leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• R. Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Tannehill (MIA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q1 54:51 · MIA 11 · Score 6-0
   (9:51) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 28-C.Hyde for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q1 54:46 · MIA 15 · Score 7-0
   4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
3. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 42:28 · SF 2 · Score 7-6
   (12:28) 64-J.Brendel reported in as eligible. 23-J.Ajayi left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 42:22 · SF 15 · Score 7-7
   3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
5. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 32:26 · SF 16 · Score 7-13
   (2:26) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 80-D.Sims for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 32:17 · SF 15 · Score 7-14
   3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
7. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q3 27:34 · SF 6 · Score 7-17
   (12:34) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
8. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q3 22:39 · MIA 4 · Score 13-17
   (7:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q3 22:34 · MIA 15 · Score 14-17
   4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
10. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q3 16:40 · SF 43 · Score 14-23
    (1:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q3 16:33 · SF 15 · Score 14-24
    3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
12. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 11:41 · SF 15 · Score 14-30
    (11:41) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 88-L.Carroo for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 11:31 · SF 15 · Score 14-31
    3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
14. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 7:52 · MIA 1 · Score 20-31
    (7:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 82-T.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
15. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q4 7:42 · MIA 15 · Score 21-31
    4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
16. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 2:20 · MIA 18 · Score 24-31
    (2:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.