San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2013 NFL season on 2014-01-05, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business against the Green Bay Packers, pulling away with a 23–20 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) paced the passing game, with +4.66 total EPA, and -1.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.71 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+20.0% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Green Bay Packers changed the game: (13:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 18-R.Cobb to SF 4 for 26 yards (20-P.Cox).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Crabtree · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +8.71 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.67 EPA/play
2. 2 C. Kaepernick · San Francisco 49ers · Rushing · +5.94 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.85 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Nelson · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +5.39 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.67 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Cobb · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +5.16 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.58 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Kaepernick · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +4.66 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.14 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +3.68 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Kuhn · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +2.58 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.29 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Dixon · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +1.23 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.23 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Green Bay Packers — J. Nelson (A. Rodgers pass) (Q2 35:56)
• San Francisco 49ers — F. Gore (Q2 32:54)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Kuhn (Q4 12:09)
• San Francisco 49ers — V. Davis (C. Kaepernick pass) (Q4 10:37)

Field goals

• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q1 54:04)
• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q1 47:20)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q2 30:04)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q4 5:09)
• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q4 0:03)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 6–0. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the GB 4 (Q1 54:04) — (9:04) 9-P.Dawson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the GB 7 (Q1 47:20) — (2:20) 9-P.Dawson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee..

The second quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 10–7. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the SF 5 (Q2 35:56) — (5:56) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the SF 2 (Q2 35:50) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the GB 10 (Q2 32:54) — (2:54) (Shotgun) 21-F.Gore left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the GB 2 (Q2 32:48) — 9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the SF 17 (Q2 30:04) — (:04) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 10–10. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the SF 1 (Q4 12:09) — (12:09) 30-J.Kuhn left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the SF 2 (Q4 12:06) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the GB 28 (Q4 10:37) — (10:37) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep middle to 85-V.Davis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the GB 2 (Q4 10:31) — 9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the SF 6 (Q4 5:09) — (5:09) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the GB 15 (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 9-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee. Penalty on GB-31-D.House, Defensive Offside, declined..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Green Bay Packers (Q4 13:28) — (13:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 18-R.Cobb to SF 4 for 26 yards (20-P.Cox). [WPA +20.0% · EPA +3.83]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 9-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee. Penalty on GB-31-D.House, Defensive Offside, declined. [WPA +17.5% · EPA +0.31]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 2:46) — (2:46) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 21-F.Gore to GB 40 for 11 yards (59-B.Jones). [WPA +15.4% · EPA +1.04]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 4:09) — (4:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short middle to 15-M.Crabtree to SF 48 for 17 yards (33-M.Hyde). [WPA +14.7% · EPA +1.67]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 10:37) — (10:37) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep middle to 85-V.Davis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.9% · EPA +3.34]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 43:23) — (13:23) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right intended for 85-V.Davis INTERCEPTED by 38-T.Williams at GB 13. 38-T.Williams to GB 30 for 17 yards (7-C.Kaepernick). [WPA -11.4% · EPA -4.97]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 55:06) — (10:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree to GB 4 for 31 yards (33-M.Hyde). [WPA +10.1% · EPA +4.68]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 13:28) — (13:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 18-R.Cobb to SF 4 for 26 yards (20-P.Cox). [WPA +20.0% · EPA +3.83]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 10:37) — (10:37) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep middle to 85-V.Davis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.9% · EPA +3.34]

Quarterback report card

C.Kaepernick led all passers in efficiency for San Francisco 49ers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) · 34 dropbacks · 47.1% completion · -1.3% CPOE · +0.14 EPA/play · +4.66 total EPA
• A.Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) · 32 dropbacks · 53.1% completion · +10.2% CPOE · +0.11 EPA/play · +3.68 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, San Francisco 49ers generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.12 vs +0.04), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Green Bay Packers: 10 drives, +2.81 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 9 drives, +9.54 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• San Francisco 49ers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• M. Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Rodgers (GB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q1 54:04 · GB 4 · Score 3-0
   (9:04) 9-P.Dawson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.
2. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q1 47:20 · GB 7 · Score 6-0
   (2:20) 9-P.Dawson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.
3. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 35:56 · SF 5 · Score 6-6
   (5:56) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 35:50 · SF 2 · Score 6-7
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
5. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 32:54 · GB 10 · Score 12-7
   (2:54) (Shotgun) 21-F.Gore left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 32:48 · GB 2 · Score 13-7
   9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.
7. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q2 30:04 · SF 17 · Score 13-10
   (:04) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
8. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 12:09 · SF 1 · Score 13-16
   (12:09) 30-J.Kuhn left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q4 12:06 · SF 2 · Score 13-17
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
10. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 10:37 · GB 28 · Score 19-17
    (10:37) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep middle to 85-V.Davis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q4 10:31 · GB 2 · Score 20-17
    9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.
12. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q4 5:09 · SF 6 · Score 20-20
    (5:09) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
13. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 0:03 · GB 15 · Score 23-20
    (:03) 9-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee. Penalty on GB-31-D.House, Defensive Offside, declined.