San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 5 Recap

Game story

In Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season on 2022-10-09, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 37–15 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 16 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Mayfield (Carolina Panthers) paced the passing game, with -12.35 total EPA, and -8.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Garoppolo (San Francisco 49ers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +16.39 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-16.1% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Garoppolo · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +16.39 total EPA · 36 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Coleman · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +5.23 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.74 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Jennings · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +4.83 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.42 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Wilson · San Francisco 49ers · Rushing · +4.70 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Moore · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +4.60 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Aiyuk · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +4.47 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.12 EPA/play
7. 7 K. Juszczyk · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +3.30 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.65 EPA/play
8. 8 S. Smith · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +2.91 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.58 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• San Francisco 49ers — T. Coleman (J. Garoppolo pass) (Q1 56:47)
• San Francisco 49ers — E. Moseley (Q2 30:55)
• Carolina Panthers — C. McCaffrey (Q3 27:03)
• San Francisco 49ers — D. Samuel (J. Garoppolo pass) (Q3 21:37)
• San Francisco 49ers — J. Wilson (Q4 12:36)
• San Francisco 49ers — T. Coleman (Q4 3:20)

Field goals

• San Francisco 49ers — R. Gould (Q2 43:01)
• Carolina Panthers — E. Pineiro (Q2 38:04)
• Carolina Panthers — E. Pineiro (Q3 18:44)
• Carolina Panthers — E. Pineiro (Q4 6:55)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 7–0. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the CAR 9 (Q1 56:47) — (11:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 28-T.Coleman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q1 56:40) — 9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky..

The second quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 10–3. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the CAR 31 (Q2 43:01) — (13:01) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the SF 25 (Q2 38:04) — (8:04) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the SF 70 (Q2 30:55); San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q2 30:43) — 9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky..

The third quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 9–7. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the SF 19 (Q3 27:03) — (12:03) 22-C.McCaffrey right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Low Block, 1 yard, enforced between downs.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the CAR 4 (Q3 21:37) — (6:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 19-D.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q3 21:32) — 9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the SF 19 (Q3 18:44) — (3:44) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker..

The fourth quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 13–3. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the CAR 1 (Q4 12:36) — (12:36) 22-J.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the SF 16 (Q4 6:55) — (6:55) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the CAR 5 (Q4 3:20) — (3:20) 28-T.Coleman left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 3:15) — 18-M.Wishnowsky extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-44-K.Juszczyk..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q2 30:55) — (:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -16.1% · EPA -7.43]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 57:32) — (12:32) (Shotgun) 22-J.Wilson up the middle pushed ob at CAR 9 for 41 yards (38-M.Hartsfield). [WPA +12.5% · EPA +3.13]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 31:48) — (1:48) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-Y.Gross-Matos), Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky, RECOVERED by CAR-7-S.Thompson at CAR 21. 7-S.Thompson to CAR 22 for 1 yard (74-S.Burford) [WPA -11.8% · EPA -3.03]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 52:20) — (7:20) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to SF 45 for 7 yards (57-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (57-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 46. 97-Y.Gross-Matos to CAR 46 for no gain. FU [WPA -11.7% · EPA -4.28]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 37:20) — (7:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk to 50 for 24 yards (34-S.Chandler). [WPA +7.9% · EPA +1.98]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q2 30:55) — (:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -16.1% · EPA -7.43]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 4:12) — (4:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 3 for -7 yards (95-D.Jackson). [WPA -0.7% · EPA -4.38]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 52:20) — (7:20) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to SF 45 for 7 yards (57-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (57-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 46. 97-Y.Gross-Matos to CAR 46 for no gain. FU [WPA -11.7% · EPA -4.28]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 47:15) — (2:15) 4-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. [WPA -6.3% · EPA -3.44]

Quarterback report card

B.Mayfield led all passers in efficiency for Carolina Panthers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Mayfield (Carolina Panthers) · 43 dropbacks · 46.5% completion · -8.8% CPOE · -0.29 EPA/play · -12.35 total EPA
• J.Garoppolo (San Francisco 49ers) · 36 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -5.9% CPOE · +0.46 EPA/play · +16.39 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, San Francisco 49ers generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.16 vs -0.15), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Carolina Panthers: 11 drives, -13.16 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 12 drives, +13.26 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• San Francisco 49ers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Garoppolo (San Francisco 49ers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• B. Mayfield (CAR) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• J. Garoppolo (SF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q1 56:47 · CAR 9 · Score 6-0
   (11:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 28-T.Coleman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q1 56:40 · CAR 15 · Score 7-0
   9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
3. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 43:01 · CAR 31 · Score 10-0
   (13:01) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
4. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 38:04 · SF 25 · Score 10-3
   (8:04) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
5. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 30:55 · SF 70 · Score 16-3
   (:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 30:43 · CAR 15 · Score 17-3
   9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
7. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q3 27:03 · SF 19 · Score 17-9
   (12:03) 22-C.McCaffrey right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Low Block, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
8. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q3 21:37 · CAR 4 · Score 23-9
   (6:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 19-D.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q3 21:32 · CAR 15 · Score 24-9
   9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
10. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q3 18:44 · SF 19 · Score 24-12
    (3:44) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
11. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 12:36 · CAR 1 · Score 30-12
    (12:36) 22-J.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q4 6:55 · SF 16 · Score 30-15
    (6:55) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
13. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 3:20 · CAR 5 · Score 36-15
    (3:20) 28-T.Coleman left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q4 3:15 · CAR 15 · Score 37-15
    18-M.Wishnowsky extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-44-K.Juszczyk.