San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 6 Recap

Game story

In Week 6 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-10-16, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the San Francisco 49ers, pulling away with a 45–16 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) paced the passing game, with +2.29 total EPA, and -12.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Taylor (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.96 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-39.2% win probability) landed in the second quarter when San Francisco 49ers changed the game: End of half - 2.28 pm

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Taylor · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +10.96 total EPA · 36 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
2. 2 L. McCoy · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +7.94 total EPA · 19 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Gillislee · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +4.50 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Woods · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.05 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.67 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Clay · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.84 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play
6. 6 V. McDonald · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +3.03 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.51 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Smith · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +2.62 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Kaepernick · San Francisco 49ers · Rushing · +2.36 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — L. McCoy (Q1 45:18)
• San Francisco 49ers — T. Smith (C. Kaepernick pass) (Q2 44:07)
• Buffalo Bills — L. McCoy (Q2 40:24)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Hunter (T. Taylor pass) (Q3 17:40)
• Buffalo Bills — L. McCoy (Q4 10:59)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Woods (T. Taylor pass) (Q4 10:36)
• Buffalo Bills — M. Gillislee (Q4 5:47)

Field goals

• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q1 50:47)
• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q2 35:59)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q2 30:25)
• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q4 14:53)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the BUF 15 (Q1 50:47) — (5:47) 4-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the SF 4 (Q1 45:18) — (:18) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: J.Felton. Option pitch.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q1 45:14) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 10–10. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the BUF 53 (Q2 44:07); San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 43:56) — 4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the SF 12 (Q2 40:24) — (10:24) Direct snap to L.McCoy (T.Taylor at WR). (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q2 40:18) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the BUF 30 (Q2 35:59) — (5:59) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the SF 22 (Q2 30:25) — (:25) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the SF 30 (Q3 17:40) — (2:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 17-J.Hunter for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, slanting to sideline.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q3 17:34) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 21–3. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the BUF 29 (Q4 14:53) — (14:53) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the SF 18 (Q4 10:59) — (10:59) 25-L.McCoy right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: R.Incognito.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q4 10:53) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the SF 5 (Q4 10:36) — (10:36) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle to 10-R.Woods for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, crossing from right.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q4 10:32) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the SF 44 (Q4 5:47) — (5:47) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee left guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q4 5:40) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q2) — End of half - 2.28 pm [WPA -39.2% · EPA -2.91]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 54:41) — (9:41) 5-T.Taylor to BUF 30 for -6 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at BUF 28. Fumble forced as T.Taylor's arm hit going back for handoff. [WPA -18.6% · EPA -6.20]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 44:07) — (14:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 82-T.Smith for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at BUF 25, crossed to middle after catch. [WPA +16.4% · EPA +4.86]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 33:10) — (3:10) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy left tackle pushed ob at BUF 48 for 22 yards (33-R.Robinson). [WPA +9.5% · EPA +2.57]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q3 19:35) — (4:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-M.Davis up the middle to BUF 40 for no gain (52-P.Brown, 56-L.McCray). [WPA -8.6% · EPA -3.28]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q1 54:41) — (9:41) 5-T.Taylor to BUF 30 for -6 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at BUF 28. Fumble forced as T.Taylor's arm hit going back for handoff. [WPA -18.6% · EPA -6.20]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 10:53) — 2-D.Carpenter kicks 58 yards from BUF 35 to SF 7. 19-K.Martin to SF 27 for 20 yards (21-N.Robey-Coleman). FUMBLES (21-N.Robey-Coleman), RECOVERED by BUF-36-J.Meeks at SF 27. [WPA -2.0% · EPA -5.03]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 44:07) — (14:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 82-T.Smith for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at BUF 25, crossed to middle after catch. [WPA +16.4% · EPA +4.86]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 4:37) — (4:37) 31-J.Williams left tackle to BUF 24 for 4 yards (64-M.Purcell). FUMBLES (64-M.Purcell), RECOVERED by SF-50-N.Bellore at BUF 27. [WPA -0.0% · EPA -4.43]

Quarterback report card

C.Kaepernick led all passers in efficiency for San Francisco 49ers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) · 36 dropbacks · 36.1% completion · -12.9% CPOE · +0.06 EPA/play · +2.29 total EPA
• T.Taylor (Buffalo Bills) · 36 dropbacks · 44.4% completion · +6.4% CPOE · +0.30 EPA/play · +10.96 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Buffalo Bills held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.17 vs -0.16), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 13 drives, +16.32 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 13 drives, -13.69 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Taylor (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Kaepernick (SF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• T. Taylor (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q1 50:47 · BUF 15 · Score 3-0
   (5:47) 4-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
2. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 45:18 · SF 4 · Score 3-6
   (:18) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: J.Felton. Option pitch.
3. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 45:14 · SF 15 · Score 3-7
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
4. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 44:07 · BUF 53 · Score 9-7
   (14:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 82-T.Smith for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at BUF 25, crossed to middle after catch
5. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 43:56 · BUF 15 · Score 10-7
   4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 40:24 · SF 12 · Score 10-13
   (10:24) Direct snap to L.McCoy (T.Taylor at WR). (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 40:18 · SF 15 · Score 10-14
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
8. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 35:59 · BUF 30 · Score 13-14
   (5:59) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
9. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:25 · SF 22 · Score 13-17
   (:25) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
10. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 17:40 · SF 30 · Score 13-23
    (2:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 17-J.Hunter for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, slanting to sideline.
11. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 17:34 · SF 15 · Score 13-24
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
12. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 14:53 · BUF 29 · Score 16-24
    (14:53) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
13. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 10:59 · SF 18 · Score 16-30
    (10:59) 25-L.McCoy right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: R.Incognito.
14. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 10:53 · SF 15 · Score 16-31
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
15. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 10:36 · SF 5 · Score 16-37
    (10:36) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle to 10-R.Woods for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, crossing from right.
16. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 10:32 · SF 15 · Score 16-38
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
17. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 5:47 · SF 44 · Score 16-44
    (5:47) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee left guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 5:40 · SF 15 · Score 16-45
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.