San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-12-18, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the San Francisco 49ers, pulling away with a 41–13 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) paced the passing game, with +0.80 total EPA, and -9.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +21.76 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-9.2% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when San Francisco 49ers changed the game: (9:45) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde left end to SF 49 for no gain (45-D.Jones). FUMBLES (45-D.Jones), RECOVERED by ATL-22-K.Neal at 50. 22-K.Neal to 50 for no gain (68-Z.Beadles).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +21.76 total EPA · 25 snaps · +0.87 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Robinson · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +6.52 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.30 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Bell · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +4.77 total EPA · 1 snaps · +4.77 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.58 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.19 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Freeman · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +2.97 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.49 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Hooper · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +2.97 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.97 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Freeman · Atlanta Falcons · Rushing · +2.88 total EPA · 20 snaps · +0.14 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Harper · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +2.82 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.94 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (Q1 55:35)
• Atlanta Falcons — T. Gabriel (M. Ryan pass) (Q1 52:48)
• Atlanta Falcons — A. Hooper (M. Ryan pass) (Q1 45:47)
• San Francisco 49ers — G. Celek (C. Kaepernick pass) (Q2 42:50)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (Q2 34:36)
• San Francisco 49ers — R. Streater (C. Kaepernick pass) (Q2 30:17)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (Q3 16:49)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q3 21:34)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q4 1:13)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 21–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SF 5 (Q1 55:35) — (10:35) 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q1 55:31) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SF 9 (Q1 52:48) — (7:48) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q1 52:40) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SF 9 (Q1 45:47) — (:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q1 45:40) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 13–7. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the ATL 16 (Q2 42:50) — (12:50) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 42:45) — 4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SF 9 (Q2 34:36) — (4:36) (No Huddle) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q2 34:28) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the ATL 5 (Q2 30:17) — (:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 81-R.Streater for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The third quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the SF 32 (Q3 21:34) — (6:34) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SF 34 (Q3 16:49) — (1:49) 24-D.Freeman left end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q3 16:42) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 3–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the SF 23 (Q4 1:13) — (1:13) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 54:45) — (9:45) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde left end to SF 49 for no gain (45-D.Jones). FUMBLES (45-D.Jones), RECOVERED by ATL-22-K.Neal at 50. 22-K.Neal to 50 for no gain (68-Z.Beadles). [WPA -9.2% · EPA -5.31]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 58:28) — (13:28) 24-D.Freeman left tackle to SF 39 for 8 yards (99-D.Buckner). [WPA +4.9% · EPA +0.42]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 43:45) — (13:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep middle to 84-B.Bell to ATL 22 for 45 yards (22-K.Neal; 37-R.Allen). SF-84-B.Bell was injured during the play. He is Out. [WPA +4.7% · EPA +4.77]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 58:45) — (13:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to ATL 11, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at SF 47 for 42 yards (5-B.Pinion). [WPA -4.6% · EPA -2.36]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 41:21) — (11:21) (No Huddle) 24-D.Freeman right guard to SF 1 for no gain (57-M.Wilhoite). FUMBLES (57-M.Wilhoite), RECOVERED by SF-57-M.Wilhoite at SF 1. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and th [WPA -4.6% · EPA -5.68]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 41:21) — (11:21) (No Huddle) 24-D.Freeman right guard to SF 1 for no gain (57-M.Wilhoite). FUMBLES (57-M.Wilhoite), RECOVERED by SF-57-M.Wilhoite at SF 1. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and th [WPA -4.6% · EPA -5.68]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 54:45) — (9:45) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde left end to SF 49 for no gain (45-D.Jones). FUMBLES (45-D.Jones), RECOVERED by ATL-22-K.Neal at 50. 22-K.Neal to 50 for no gain (68-Z.Beadles). [WPA -9.2% · EPA -5.31]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 43:45) — (13:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep middle to 84-B.Bell to ATL 22 for 45 yards (22-K.Neal; 37-R.Allen). SF-84-B.Bell was injured during the play. He is Out. [WPA +4.7% · EPA +4.77]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 42:45) — (12:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 19-A.Robinson pushed ob at SF 16 for 59 yards (25-J.Ward). SF-25-J.Ward was injured during the play. He is Out. [WPA +2.9% · EPA +3.29]

Quarterback report card

C.Kaepernick led all passers in efficiency for San Francisco 49ers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) · 36 dropbacks · 55.6% completion · -9.0% CPOE · +0.02 EPA/play · +0.80 total EPA
• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 25 dropbacks · 68.0% completion · +15.8% CPOE · +0.87 EPA/play · +21.76 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Atlanta Falcons held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.28 vs -0.12), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Atlanta Falcons: 11 drives, +23.45 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 11 drives, -8.67 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Kaepernick (SF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 55:35 · SF 5 · Score 0-6
   (10:35) 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 55:31 · SF 15 · Score 0-7
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
3. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 52:48 · SF 9 · Score 0-13
   (7:48) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 52:40 · SF 15 · Score 0-14
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
5. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 45:47 · SF 9 · Score 0-20
   (:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 45:40 · SF 15 · Score 0-21
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
7. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 42:50 · ATL 16 · Score 6-21
   (12:50) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 42:45 · ATL 15 · Score 7-21
   4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
9. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 34:36 · SF 9 · Score 7-27
   (4:36) (No Huddle) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 34:28 · SF 15 · Score 7-28
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
11. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 30:17 · ATL 5 · Score 13-28
    (:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 81-R.Streater for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q3 21:34 · SF 32 · Score 13-31
    (6:34) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
13. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 16:49 · SF 34 · Score 13-37
    (1:49) 24-D.Freeman left end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 16:42 · SF 15 · Score 13-38
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
15. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 1:13 · SF 23 · Score 13-41
    (1:13) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.