San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 3 Recap

Game story

In Week 3 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-09-27, the Arizona Cardinals took care of business against the San Francisco 49ers, pulling away with a 47–7 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Palmer (Arizona Cardinals) paced the passing game, with +12.19 total EPA, and +6.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, C. Palmer (Arizona Cardinals) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.19 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-13.4% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when San Francisco 49ers changed the game: (9:14) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right intended for 81-A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [93-C.Campbell] at SF 33. 32-T.Mathieu for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 C. Palmer · Arizona Cardinals · Passing · +12.19 total EPA · 37 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
2. 2 L. Fitzgerald · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +10.58 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Kaepernick · San Francisco 49ers · Rushing · +4.01 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.34 EPA/play
4. 4 JO. Brown · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +3.98 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Johnson · Arizona Cardinals · Rushing · +3.21 total EPA · 23 snaps · +0.14 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Gresham · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +2.74 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.91 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Johnson · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +2.21 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.11 EPA/play
8. 8 G. Celek · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +1.64 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Arizona Cardinals — J. Bethel (Q1 56:15)
• Arizona Cardinals — T. Mathieu (Q1 54:14)
• Arizona Cardinals — C. Johnson (Q2 45:00)
• Arizona Cardinals — C. Johnson (Q2 37:55)
• San Francisco 49ers — C. Kaepernick (Q2 32:11)
• Arizona Cardinals — L. Fitzgerald (C. Palmer pass) (Q3 27:35)
• Arizona Cardinals — L. Fitzgerald (C. Palmer pass) (Q4 5:21)

Field goals

• Arizona Cardinals — C. Catanzaro (Q2 30:01)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Arizona Cardinals won the period 14–0. Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the ARI 88 (Q1 56:15); Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q1 56:06) — 7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.; Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the ARI 69 (Q1 54:14); Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q1 54:03) — 7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler..

The second quarter: Arizona Cardinals won the period 17–7. Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the SF 6 (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 23-C.Johnson up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q2 44:56) — 7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.; Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the SF 1 (Q2 37:55) — (7:55) 23-C.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q2 37:49) — 7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the ARI 12 (Q2 32:11) — (2:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the ARI 15 (Q2 32:03) — 9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; Arizona Cardinals connected on a field goal from the SF 4 (Q2 30:01) — (:01) 7-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler..

The third quarter: Arizona Cardinals won the period 9–0. Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the SF 4 (Q3 27:35) — (12:35) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q3 27:29) — 7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.; Arizona Cardinals registered a safety from the ARI 99 (Q3 19:24) — (4:24) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (51-K.Minter)..

The fourth quarter: Arizona Cardinals won the period 7–0. Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the SF 8 (Q4 5:21) — (5:21) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q4 5:15) — 7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 54:14) — (9:14) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right intended for 81-A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [93-C.Campbell] at SF 33. 32-T.Mathieu for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -13.4% · EPA -7.62]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 56:15) — (11:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right intended for 85-V.Davis INTERCEPTED by 28-J.Bethel [92-F.Rucker] at SF 21. 28-J.Bethel for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -13.2% · EPA -5.44]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q1 57:25) — (12:25) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald. QB pressured by SF #53-Bowman [WPA -3.6% · EPA -1.71]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 32:11) — (2:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +3.6% · EPA +2.87]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q1 58:04) — (13:04) 23-C.Johnson right tackle to SF 45 for -1 yards (92-Q.Dial). [WPA -3.6% · EPA -0.83]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 54:14) — (9:14) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right intended for 81-A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [93-C.Campbell] at SF 33. 32-T.Mathieu for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -13.4% · EPA -7.62]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 56:15) — (11:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right intended for 85-V.Davis INTERCEPTED by 28-J.Bethel [92-F.Rucker] at SF 21. 28-J.Bethel for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -13.2% · EPA -5.44]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 30:42) — (:42) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right intended for 85-V.Davis INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at SF 42. 32-T.Mathieu to SF 25 for 17 yards (66-M.Martin). The Replay Official reviewed the incomple [WPA -1.6% · EPA -3.69]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q2 39:24) — (9:24) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep right to 12-JO.Brown to SF 1 for 27 yards (41-A.Bethea; 36-D.Johnson). [WPA +1.8% · EPA +3.22]

Quarterback report card

C.Palmer led all passers in efficiency for Arizona Cardinals, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Palmer (Arizona Cardinals) · 37 dropbacks · 54.1% completion · +6.0% CPOE · +0.33 EPA/play · +12.19 total EPA
• C.Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) · 25 dropbacks · 36.0% completion · -18.4% CPOE · -0.88 EPA/play · -22.12 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Arizona Cardinals held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.14 vs -0.43), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Arizona Cardinals: 13 drives, +12.30 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 12 drives, -29.03 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Arizona Cardinals leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• C. Palmer (Arizona Cardinals) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Palmer (ARI) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• C. Kaepernick (SF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q1 56:15 · ARI 88 · Score 0-6
   (11:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right intended for 85-V.Davis INTERCEPTED by 28-J.Bethel [92-F.Rucker] at SF 21. 28-J.Bethel for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN
2. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q1 56:06 · SF 15 · Score 0-7
   7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.
3. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q1 54:14 · ARI 69 · Score 0-13
   (9:14) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right intended for 81-A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [93-C.Campbell] at SF 33. 32-T.Mathieu for 33 yards, TOUCH
4. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q1 54:03 · SF 15 · Score 0-14
   7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.
5. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · SF 6 · Score 0-20
   (15:00) 23-C.Johnson up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q2 44:56 · SF 15 · Score 0-21
   7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.
7. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q2 37:55 · SF 1 · Score 0-27
   (7:55) 23-C.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q2 37:49 · SF 15 · Score 0-28
   7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.
9. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 32:11 · ARI 12 · Score 6-28
   (2:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 32:03 · ARI 15 · Score 7-28
    9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
11. Arizona Cardinals FG (+3) — Q2 30:01 · SF 4 · Score 7-31
    (:01) 7-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.
12. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q3 27:35 · SF 4 · Score 7-37
    (12:35) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q3 27:29 · SF 15 · Score 7-38
    7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.
14. Arizona Cardinals Safety (+2) — Q3 19:24 · ARI 99 · Score 7-40
    (4:24) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (51-K.Minter).
15. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q4 5:21 · SF 8 · Score 7-46
    (5:21) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q4 5:15 · SF 15 · Score 7-47
    7-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.