San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2013 NFL season on 2013-12-29, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business against the Arizona Cardinals, pulling away with a 23–20 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 19 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Palmer (Arizona Cardinals) paced the passing game, with +6.26 total EPA, and -0.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Boldin (San Francisco 49ers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.52 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+32.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Arizona Cardinals changed the game: (3:28) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 12-A.Roberts for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Boldin · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +10.52 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
2. 2 C. Kaepernick · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +9.71 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Palmer · Arizona Cardinals · Passing · +6.26 total EPA · 50 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
4. 4 A. Roberts · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +5.06 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Housler · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +2.94 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Dixon · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +2.63 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.31 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Ballard · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +2.54 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.54 EPA/play
8. 8 V. Davis · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +2.43 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• San Francisco 49ers — A. Boldin (C. Kaepernick pass) (Q1 53:39)
• San Francisco 49ers — V. Davis (C. Kaepernick pass) (Q1 45:56)
• Arizona Cardinals — J. Ballard (C. Palmer pass) (Q2 34:50)
• Arizona Cardinals — A. Roberts (C. Palmer pass) (Q4 3:28)

Field goals

• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q1 55:41)
• Arizona Cardinals — J. Feely (Q4 14:52)
• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q4 1:50)
• Arizona Cardinals — J. Feely (Q4 0:34)
• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q4 0:02)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 17–0. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the ARI 8 (Q1 55:41) — (10:41) 9-P.Dawson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the ARI 4 (Q1 53:39) — (8:39) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 81-A.Boldin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the ARI 2 (Q1 53:33) — 9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the ARI 3 (Q1 45:56) — (:56) SF #67 and #68 report as eligible. 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 85-V.Davis for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the ARI 2 (Q1 45:52) — 9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee..

The second quarter: Arizona Cardinals won the period 7–0. Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the SF 1 (Q2 34:50) — (4:50) ARI #66 reports as eligible. 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 86-J.Ballard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the SF 2 (Q2 34:46).

The fourth quarter: Arizona Cardinals won the period 13–6. Arizona Cardinals connected on a field goal from the SF 31 (Q4 14:52) — (14:52) 4-J.Feely 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-9-D.Zastudil.; Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the SF 34 (Q4 3:28); Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the SF 2 (Q4 3:20) — 4-J.Feely extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-9-D.Zastudil.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the ARI 38 (Q4 1:50) — (1:50) 9-P.Dawson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.; Arizona Cardinals connected on a field goal from the SF 25 (Q4 0:34) — (:34) 4-J.Feely 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-9-D.Zastudil.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the ARI 22 (Q4 0:02) — (:02) 9-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Arizona Cardinals (Q4 3:28) — (3:28) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 12-A.Roberts for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. [WPA +32.3% · EPA +4.94]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 0:02) — (:02) 9-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee. [WPA +19.9% · EPA +0.46]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 0:18) — (:18) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 11-Q.Patton to ARI 22 for 29 yards (20-A.Cason). [WPA +17.2% · EPA +1.60]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 1:50) — (1:50) 9-P.Dawson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee. [WPA +13.7% · EPA +2.00]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q4 1:23) — (1:23) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 84-R.Housler to ARI 45 for 24 yards (35-E.Reid). ARI-84-R.Housler was injured during the play. Timeout ARI due to injury to avoid 10-second run-off. [WPA +12.6% · EPA +1.22]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 46:49) — (1:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 81-A.Boldin to ARI 3 for 63 yards (26-R.Johnson; 21-P.Peterson). [WPA +8.9% · EPA +5.60]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q3 26:46) — (11:46) 28-R.Mendenhall up the middle to ARI 37 for 2 yards (53-N.Bowman). FUMBLES (53-N.Bowman), RECOVERED by SF-53-N.Bowman at ARI 37. 53-N.Bowman to ARI 37 for no gain (28-R.Mendenhall). The Replay [WPA -11.3% · EPA -5.26]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q4 3:28) — (3:28) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 12-A.Roberts for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. [WPA +32.3% · EPA +4.94]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q1 54:55) — (9:55) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle intended for 15-M.Floyd INTERCEPTED by 53-N.Bowman at ARI 26. 53-N.Bowman to ARI 22 for 4 yards (74-P.Fanaika). [WPA -8.6% · EPA -4.76]

Quarterback report card

C.Palmer led all passers in efficiency for Arizona Cardinals, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Palmer (Arizona Cardinals) · 50 dropbacks · 56.0% completion · -0.6% CPOE · +0.13 EPA/play · +6.26 total EPA
• C.Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) · 38 dropbacks · 55.3% completion · +4.6% CPOE · +0.26 EPA/play · +9.71 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, San Francisco 49ers generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.01 vs -0.07), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Arizona Cardinals: 14 drives, -6.84 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 13 drives, -1.15 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• San Francisco 49ers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Boldin (San Francisco 49ers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Kaepernick (SF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q1 55:41 · ARI 8 · Score 3-0
   (10:41) 9-P.Dawson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.
2. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q1 53:39 · ARI 4 · Score 9-0
   (8:39) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 81-A.Boldin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q1 53:33 · ARI 2 · Score 10-0
   9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.
4. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q1 45:56 · ARI 3 · Score 16-0
   (:56) SF #67 and #68 report as eligible. 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 85-V.Davis for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q1 45:52 · ARI 2 · Score 17-0
   9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.
6. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q2 34:50 · SF 1 · Score 17-6
   (4:50) ARI #66 reports as eligible. 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 86-J.Ballard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q2 34:46 · SF 2 · Score 17-7
   4-J.Feely extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-9-D.Zastudil. PENALTY on SF-25-T.Brown, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
8. Arizona Cardinals FG (+3) — Q4 14:52 · SF 31 · Score 17-10
   (14:52) 4-J.Feely 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-9-D.Zastudil.
9. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q4 3:28 · SF 34 · Score 17-16
   (3:28) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 12-A.Roberts for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was
10. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q4 3:20 · SF 2 · Score 17-17
    4-J.Feely extra point is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-9-D.Zastudil.
11. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 1:50 · ARI 38 · Score 20-17
    (1:50) 9-P.Dawson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.
12. Arizona Cardinals FG (+3) — Q4 0:34 · SF 25 · Score 20-20
    (:34) 4-J.Feely 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-9-D.Zastudil.
13. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 0:02 · ARI 22 · Score 23-20
    (:02) 9-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-A.Lee.