Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots: 2016 Week 10 Recap

Game story

In Week 10 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-11-13, the Seattle Seahawks took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 31–24 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) paced the passing game, with +20.71 total EPA, and +10.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +20.71 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-21.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (8:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to SEA 38 for 5 yards (31-K.Chancellor). FUMBLES (31-K.Chancellor), RECOVERED by SEA-25-R.Sherman at SEA 38. 25-R.Sherman to NE 48 for 14

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Wilson · Seattle Seahawks · Passing · +20.71 total EPA · 45 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +11.17 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Prosise · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +8.16 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.17 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Baldwin · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +7.51 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Bennett · New England Patriots · Receiving · +6.35 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.91 EPA/play
6. 6 P. Richardson · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +3.44 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.15 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Lockett · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +3.32 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Graham · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +2.97 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.74 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q1 55:30)
• Seattle Seahawks — D. Baldwin (R. Wilson pass) (Q2 40:56)
• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q2 31:14)
• Seattle Seahawks — D. Baldwin (R. Wilson pass) (Q2 30:13)
• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q3 22:58)
• Seattle Seahawks — D. Baldwin (R. Wilson pass) (Q4 4:30)

Field goals

• Seattle Seahawks — S. Hauschka (Q1 52:14)
• Seattle Seahawks — S. Hauschka (Q1 46:37)
• Seattle Seahawks — S. Hauschka (Q3 17:57)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 13:05)
• Seattle Seahawks — S. Hauschka (Q4 8:59)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–6. New England Patriots found the end zone from the SEA 1 (Q1 55:30) — (10:30) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the SEA 15 (Q1 55:19) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Seattle Seahawks connected on a field goal from the NE 8 (Q1 52:14) — (7:14) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.; Seattle Seahawks connected on a field goal from the NE 13 (Q1 46:37) — (1:37) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan..

The second quarter: Seattle Seahawks won the period 13–7. Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the NE 6 (Q2 40:56) — (10:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the SEA 1 (Q2 31:14) — (1:14) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the SEA 15 (Q2 31:05) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the NE 18 (Q2 30:13) — (:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 30:06) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the SEA 13 (Q3 22:58); New England Patriots added 1 points from the SEA 15 (Q3 22:52) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Seattle Seahawks connected on a field goal from the NE 23 (Q3 17:57) — (2:57) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan..

The fourth quarter: Seattle Seahawks won the period 9–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the SEA 12 (Q4 13:05) — (13:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Seattle Seahawks connected on a field goal from the NE 5 (Q4 8:59) — (8:59) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.; Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the NE 15 (Q4 4:30) — (4:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 8:39) — (8:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to SEA 38 for 5 yards (31-K.Chancellor). FUMBLES (31-K.Chancellor), RECOVERED by SEA-25-R.Sherman at SEA 38. 25-R.Sherman to NE 48 for 14 [WPA -21.8% · EPA -5.31]
• New England Patriots (Q3 15:10) — (:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at SEA 9 for 33 yards (29-E.Thomas). [WPA +17.8% · EPA +3.85]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 11:09) — (11:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 22-C.Prosise to NE 2 for 38 yards (32-D.McCourty; 52-E.Roberts). [WPA +17.6% · EPA +4.29]
• New England Patriots (Q4 2:33) — (2:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 11-J.Edelman to SEA 24 for 30 yards (29-E.Thomas; 25-R.Sherman). [WPA +16.8% · EPA +2.85]
• New England Patriots (Q4 1:29) — (1:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to SEA 2 for 26 yards (35-D.Shead). NE 12-Brady 75th career 300-yard game, 3rd most all-time. [WPA +14.7% · EPA +3.10]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q4 8:39) — (8:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to SEA 38 for 5 yards (31-K.Chancellor). FUMBLES (31-K.Chancellor), RECOVERED by SEA-25-R.Sherman at SEA 38. 25-R.Sherman to NE 48 for 14 [WPA -21.8% · EPA -5.31]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q2 30:13) — (:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.6% · EPA +4.38]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 11:09) — (11:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 22-C.Prosise to NE 2 for 38 yards (32-D.McCourty; 52-E.Roberts). [WPA +17.6% · EPA +4.29]
• New England Patriots (Q3 15:10) — (:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at SEA 9 for 33 yards (29-E.Thomas). [WPA +17.8% · EPA +3.85]

Quarterback report card

R.Wilson led all passers in efficiency for Seattle Seahawks, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) · 45 dropbacks · 55.6% completion · +10.2% CPOE · +0.46 EPA/play · +20.71 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 38 dropbacks · 60.5% completion · +8.1% CPOE · +0.29 EPA/play · +11.17 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Seattle Seahawks generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.25 vs +0.10), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +8.59 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Seattle Seahawks: 10 drives, +21.65 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Seattle Seahawks leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• R. Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Wilson (SEA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 55:30 · SEA 1 · Score 0-6
   (10:30) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 55:19 · SEA 15 · Score 0-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3. Seattle Seahawks FG (+3) — Q1 52:14 · NE 8 · Score 3-7
   (7:14) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
4. Seattle Seahawks FG (+3) — Q1 46:37 · NE 13 · Score 6-7
   (1:37) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
5. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q2 40:56 · NE 6 · Score 12-7
   (10:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 31:14 · SEA 1 · Score 12-13
   (1:14) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
7. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 31:05 · SEA 15 · Score 12-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
8. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q2 30:13 · NE 18 · Score 18-14
   (:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q2 30:06 · NE 15 · Score 19-14
   4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 22:58 · SEA 13 · Score 19-20
    (7:58) 29-L.Blount left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 3 rush TD in a game ties his career high (9-17-15 vs Jax). Pats record is 4 (Jonas Gray 11-16-
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 22:52 · SEA 15 · Score 19-21
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
12. Seattle Seahawks FG (+3) — Q3 17:57 · NE 23 · Score 22-21
    (2:57) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
13. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 13:05 · SEA 12 · Score 22-24
    (13:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
14. Seattle Seahawks FG (+3) — Q4 8:59 · NE 5 · Score 25-24
    (8:59) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
15. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q4 4:30 · NE 15 · Score 31-24
    (4:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.