Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-12-18, the Baltimore Ravens took care of business against the Philadelphia Eagles, pulling away with a 27–26 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles) paced the passing game, with -4.47 total EPA, and -13.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, Z. Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +6.85 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-24.2% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Philadelphia Eagles changed the game: TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 11-C.Wentz pass to 81-J.Matthews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 Z. Ertz · Philadelphia Eagles · Receiving · +6.85 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.86 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Mathews · Philadelphia Eagles · Rushing · +6.61 total EPA · 21 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
3. 3 T. West · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +3.12 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.78 EPA/play
4. 4 K. Aiken · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +3.07 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.53 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Wallace · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +2.99 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Campanaro · Baltimore Ravens · Rushing · +2.69 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.69 EPA/play
7. 7 S. Smith · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +2.35 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
8. 8 K. Barner · Philadelphia Eagles · Receiving · +1.68 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Baltimore Ravens — K. Aiken (J. Flacco pass) (Q1 56:41)
• Philadelphia Eagles — R. Mathews (Q2 44:44)
• Baltimore Ravens — S. Smith (J. Flacco pass) (Q2 30:16)
• Baltimore Ravens — K. Dixon (Q4 11:14)
• Philadelphia Eagles — C. Wentz (Q4 0:12)

Field goals

• Philadelphia Eagles — C. Sturgis (Q1 49:47)
• Baltimore Ravens — J. Tucker (Q1 47:00)
• Baltimore Ravens — J. Tucker (Q2 39:27)
• Philadelphia Eagles — C. Sturgis (Q2 31:43)
• Philadelphia Eagles — C. Sturgis (Q4 14:51)
• Philadelphia Eagles — C. Sturgis (Q4 2:26)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Baltimore Ravens won the period 10–3. Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the PHI 5 (Q1 56:41) — (11:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-K.Aiken for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the PHI 15 (Q1 56:38) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.; Philadelphia Eagles connected on a field goal from the BAL 27 (Q1 49:47) — (4:47) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.; Baltimore Ravens connected on a field goal from the PHI 35 (Q1 47:00).

The second quarter: Baltimore Ravens won the period 17–11. Philadelphia Eagles found the end zone from the BAL 4 (Q2 44:44) — (14:44) 24-R.Mathews right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL-54-Z.Orr was injured during the play.; Philadelphia Eagles registered a safety from the BAL 2 (Q2 44:38) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 24-R.Mathews rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Baltimore Ravens connected on a field goal from the PHI 28 (Q2 39:27) — (9:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.; Philadelphia Eagles connected on a field goal from the BAL 16 (Q2 31:43) — (1:43) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the PHI 34 (Q2 30:16) — (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 89-S.Smith for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the PHI 15 (Q2 30:09) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the BAL 75 (Q2 30:09) — (:09) 11-C.Wentz kneels to PHI 24 for -1 yards..

The fourth quarter: Philadelphia Eagles won the period 12–7. Philadelphia Eagles connected on a field goal from the BAL 9 (Q4 14:51) — (14:51) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the PHI 16 (Q4 11:14) — (11:14) 30-K.Dixon left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the PHI 15 (Q4 11:06) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.; Philadelphia Eagles connected on a field goal from the BAL 11 (Q4 2:26) — (2:26) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.; Philadelphia Eagles found the end zone from the BAL 4 (Q4 0:12) — (:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Philadelphia Eagles (Q4 0:04) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 11-C.Wentz pass to 81-J.Matthews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. [WPA -24.2% · EPA -0.95]
• Philadelphia Eagles (Q4 0:12) — (:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.3% · EPA +2.81]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q2 30:16) — (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 89-S.Smith for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.3% · EPA +5.03]
• Philadelphia Eagles (Q2 36:53) — (6:53) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 34-K.Barner to BAL 43 for 10 yards (32-E.Weddle). PHI-34-K.Barner was injured during the play. [WPA +10.9% · EPA +1.77]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q2 44:55) — (14:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 6 for -7 yards (53-N.Bradham). FUMBLES (53-N.Bradham) [53-N.Bradham], RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at BAL 8. 91-F.Cox to BAL 8 for no gain (73-M.Yanda). [WPA -10.5% · EPA -4.45]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 6:21) — (6:21) 5-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 84-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hicks at PHI 6. 58-J.Hicks to PHI 40 for 34 yards (5-J.Flacco). [WPA -5.1% · EPA -6.88]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q2 30:16) — (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 89-S.Smith for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.3% · EPA +5.03]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q2 44:55) — (14:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 6 for -7 yards (53-N.Bradham). FUMBLES (53-N.Bradham) [53-N.Bradham], RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at BAL 8. 91-F.Cox to BAL 8 for no gain (73-M.Yanda). [WPA -10.5% · EPA -4.45]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 6:59) — (6:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 17-M.Wallace pushed ob at PHI 11 for 54 yards (23-R.McLeod). [WPA +2.5% · EPA +4.18]

Quarterback report card

C.Wentz led all passers in efficiency for Philadelphia Eagles, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles) · 49 dropbacks · 44.9% completion · -13.2% CPOE · -0.09 EPA/play · -4.47 total EPA
• J.Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) · 33 dropbacks · 48.5% completion · -10.2% CPOE · -0.18 EPA/play · -5.91 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Philadelphia Eagles +0.02, Baltimore Ravens -0.01) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Baltimore Ravens: 12 drives, -0.78 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Philadelphia Eagles: 12 drives, +1.68 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Baltimore Ravens leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• Z. Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Wentz (PHI) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• J. Flacco (BAL) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q1 56:41 · PHI 5 · Score 0-6
   (11:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-K.Aiken for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q1 56:38 · PHI 15 · Score 0-7
   9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
3. Philadelphia Eagles FG (+3) — Q1 49:47 · BAL 27 · Score 3-7
   (4:47) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.
4. Baltimore Ravens FG (+3) — Q1 47:00 · PHI 35 · Score 3-10
   (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker's 10th 50-plus yard field ties NFL record set by B
5. Philadelphia Eagles TD (+6) — Q2 44:44 · BAL 4 · Score 9-10
   (14:44) 24-R.Mathews right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL-54-Z.Orr was injured during the play.
6. Philadelphia Eagles Safety (+2) — Q2 44:38 · BAL 2 · Score 11-10
   TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 24-R.Mathews rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
7. Baltimore Ravens FG (+3) — Q2 39:27 · PHI 28 · Score 11-13
   (9:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
8. Philadelphia Eagles FG (+3) — Q2 31:43 · BAL 16 · Score 14-13
   (1:43) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.
9. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q2 30:16 · PHI 34 · Score 14-19
   (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 89-S.Smith for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q2 30:09 · PHI 15 · Score 14-20
    9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
11. Baltimore Ravens TD (+7) — Q2 30:09 · BAL 75 · Score 14-20
    (:09) 11-C.Wentz kneels to PHI 24 for -1 yards.
12. Philadelphia Eagles FG (+3) — Q4 14:51 · BAL 9 · Score 17-20
    (14:51) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.
13. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q4 11:14 · PHI 16 · Score 17-26
    (11:14) 30-K.Dixon left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q4 11:06 · PHI 15 · Score 17-27
    9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
15. Philadelphia Eagles FG (+3) — Q4 2:26 · BAL 11 · Score 20-27
    (2:26) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.
16. Philadelphia Eagles TD (+6) — Q4 0:12 · BAL 4 · Score 26-27
    (:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.