New York Jets vs. New England Patriots: 2012 Week 7 Recap

Game story

In Week 7 of the 2012 NFL season on 2012-10-21, the New England Patriots took care of business against the New York Jets, pulling away with a 29–26 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Sanchez (New York Jets) paced the passing game, with +12.87 total EPA, and +6.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Sanchez (New York Jets) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.87 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-49.2% win probability) landed in overtime when New York Jets changed the game: (7:35) 6-M.Sanchez sacked at NYJ 28 for -12 yards (sack split by 50-R.Ninkovich and 96-J.Cunningham). FUMBLES (50-R.Ninkovich), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.Ninkovich at NYJ 25. The Replay Assistant challenge

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Sanchez · New York Jets · Passing · +12.87 total EPA · 49 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Kerley · New York Jets · Receiving · +10.10 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.92 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Keller · New York Jets · Receiving · +9.31 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.33 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +7.48 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +7.38 total EPA · 47 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
6. 6 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.70 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Hernandez · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.60 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
8. 8 L. Hilliard · New York Jets · Receiving · +1.84 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.84 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New York Jets — S. Greene (Q1 53:55)
• New England Patriots — D. McCourty (Q1 53:51)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q1 49:17)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q3 17:47)
• New York Jets — D. Keller (M. Sanchez pass) (Q4 5:49)

Field goals

• New York Jets — N. Folk (Q2 30:07)
• New York Jets — N. Folk (Q3 24:36)
• New York Jets — N. Folk (Q4 2:11)
• New York Jets — N. Folk (Q4 1:42)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 0:05)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (OT 11:07)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–7. New York Jets found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q1 53:55) — (8:55) NYJ 6-Sanchez at QB. 63-J.Smith reported in as eligible. 23-S.Greene up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 53:51) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the NYJ 35 (Q1 53:51); New England Patriots added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q1 53:39) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the NYJ 17 (Q1 49:17); New England Patriots added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q1 49:11) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The second quarter: New York Jets won the period 3–2. New England Patriots registered a safety from the NE 88 (Q2 43:14); New York Jets connected on a field goal from the NE 36 (Q2 30:07) — (:07) 2-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. New York Jets connected on a field goal from the NE 3 (Q3 24:36) — (9:36) 2-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the NYJ 2 (Q3 17:47) — (2:47) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q3 17:39) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The fourth quarter: New York Jets won the period 13–3. New York Jets found the end zone from the NE 7 (Q4 5:49) — (5:49) 6-M.Sanchez pass short middle to 81-D.Keller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 5:44) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone.; New York Jets connected on a field goal from the NE 25 (Q4 2:11) — (2:11) 2-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone.; New York Jets connected on a field goal from the NE 25 (Q4 1:42) — (1:42) 2-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the NYJ 25 (Q4 0:05) — (:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

Overtime: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the NYJ 30 (OT 11:07) — (11:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New York Jets (OT 7:35) — (7:35) 6-M.Sanchez sacked at NYJ 28 for -12 yards (sack split by 50-R.Ninkovich and 96-J.Cunningham). FUMBLES (50-R.Ninkovich), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.Ninkovich at NYJ 25. The Replay Assistant challenge [WPA -49.2% · EPA -1.30]
• New England Patriots (Q4 2:06) — 2-N.Folk kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to NE 0. 32-D.McCourty to NE 15 for 15 yards (36-L.Hilliard). FUMBLES (36-L.Hilliard), RECOVERED by NYJ-39-A.Allen at NE 18. [WPA -36.8% · EPA -4.98]
• New England Patriots (Q1 53:51) — 2-N.Folk kicks 69 yards from NYJ 35 to NE -4. 32-D.McCourty for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 2nd longest KO return in franchise history (Hobbs 108) [WPA +19.7% · EPA +6.28]
• New England Patriots (OT 11:07) — (11:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko. [WPA -18.8% · EPA +1.51]
• New York Jets (OT 8:47) — (8:47) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanchez pass deep right to 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 40 for 17 yards (24-K.Arrington). [WPA +16.7% · EPA +1.73]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q1 53:51) — 2-N.Folk kicks 69 yards from NYJ 35 to NE -4. 32-D.McCourty for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 2nd longest KO return in franchise history (Hobbs 108) [WPA +19.7% · EPA +6.28]
• New England Patriots (Q4 2:06) — 2-N.Folk kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to NE 0. 32-D.McCourty to NE 15 for 15 yards (36-L.Hilliard). FUMBLES (36-L.Hilliard), RECOVERED by NYJ-39-A.Allen at NE 18. [WPA -36.8% · EPA -4.98]
• New England Patriots (Q1 49:17) — (4:17) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 39th straight regular season game with a TD pass, 3rd longest all-time. [WPA +7.5% · EPA +3.23]
• New York Jets (Q1 56:29) — (11:29) NYJ 6-Sanchez at QB. (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanchez pass deep right to 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NE 19 for 26 yards (24-K.Arrington). [WPA +11.8% · EPA +2.89]

Quarterback report card

M.Sanchez led all passers in efficiency for New York Jets, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Sanchez (New York Jets) · 49 dropbacks · 57.1% completion · +6.4% CPOE · +0.26 EPA/play · +12.87 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 47 dropbacks · 55.3% completion · +3.4% CPOE · +0.16 EPA/play · +7.38 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (New York Jets +0.15, New England Patriots +0.13) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• New England Patriots: 14 drives, +13.16 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• New York Jets: 12 drives, +14.77 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• M. Sanchez (New York Jets) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Sanchez (NYJ) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q1 53:55 · NE 1 · Score 6-0
   (8:55) NYJ 6-Sanchez at QB. 63-J.Smith reported in as eligible. 23-S.Greene up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q1 53:51 · NE 2 · Score 7-0
   2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 53:51 · NYJ 35 · Score 7-6
   2-N.Folk kicks 69 yards from NYJ 35 to NE -4. 32-D.McCourty for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 2nd longest KO return in franchise history (Hobbs 108)
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 53:39 · NYJ 2 · Score 7-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 49:17 · NYJ 17 · Score 7-13
   (4:17) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 39th straight regular season game with a TD pass, 3rd longest all-time.
6. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 49:11 · NYJ 2 · Score 7-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
7. New England Patriots Safety (+2) — Q2 43:14 · NE 88 · Score 7-16
   (13:14) 6-M.Sanchez FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 6, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. Penalty on NYJ-6-M.Sanchez, Illegal Kick, declined. Sanchez kicked the b
8. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q2 30:07 · NE 36 · Score 10-16
   (:07) 2-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone.
9. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q3 24:36 · NE 3 · Score 13-16
   (9:36) 2-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 17:47 · NYJ 2 · Score 13-22
    (2:47) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 17:39 · NYJ 2 · Score 13-23
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
12. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q4 5:49 · NE 7 · Score 19-23
    (5:49) 6-M.Sanchez pass short middle to 81-D.Keller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q4 5:44 · NE 2 · Score 20-23
    2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone.
14. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q4 2:11 · NE 25 · Score 23-23
    (2:11) 2-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone.
15. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q4 1:42 · NE 25 · Score 26-23
    (1:42) 2-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-R.Malone.
16. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 0:05 · NYJ 25 · Score 26-26
    (:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
17. New England Patriots FG (+3) — OT 11:07 · NYJ 30 · Score 26-29
    (11:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.