New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2009 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2009 NFL season on 2009-12-27, the New York Jets took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 29–15 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +10.49 total EPA, and +10.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.49 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-27.8% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (1:38) (Run formation) 7-C.Painter sacked at IND 12 for -8 yards (97-C.Pace). FUMBLES (97-C.Pace), touched at IND 10, RECOVERED by NYJ-93-M.Douglas at IND 1. 93-M.Douglas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 10 sac

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +10.49 total EPA · 25 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Collie · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +6.97 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.00 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Cotchery · New York Jets · Receiving · +2.14 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
4. 4 S. Greene · New York Jets · Rushing · +2.09 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Addai · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +1.87 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Brown · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.51 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.51 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Jones · New York Jets · Rushing · +1.44 total EPA · 23 snaps · +0.06 EPA/play
8. 8 H. Baskett · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.18 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — J. Addai (Q1 52:00)
• New York Jets — B. Smith (Q3 30:00)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Brown (Q3 25:20)
• New York Jets — M. Douglas (Q3 16:38)
• New York Jets — T. Jones (Q4 5:42)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 41:50)
• New York Jets — J. Feely (Q2 31:49)
• New York Jets — unlisted player (Q2 30:32)
• New York Jets — J. Feely (Q4 13:28)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 6–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NYJ 21 (Q1 52:00) — (7:00) (Shotgun) 29-J.Addai up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The second quarter: New York Jets won the period 6–3. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NYJ 4 (Q2 41:50) — (11:50) 4-A.Vinatieri 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; New York Jets connected on a field goal from the IND 17 (Q2 31:49) — (1:49) 3-J.Feely 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-11-K.Clemens.; New York Jets connected on a field goal (Q2 30:32) — Timeout #2 by IND at 00:32..

The third quarter: New York Jets won the period 15–6. New York Jets found the end zone from the IND 30 (Q3 30:00) — 1-P.McAfee kicks 76 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -6. 16-B.Smith for 106 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 29:48) — 3-J.Feely extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-11-K.Clemens.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NYJ 1 (Q3 25:20) — (10:20) (Run formation) 31-D.Brown right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets found the end zone from the NYJ 80 (Q3 16:38); New York Jets registered a safety from the IND 2 (Q3 16:29) — (Run formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-M.Sanchez pass to 81-D.Keller is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

The fourth quarter: New York Jets won the period 11–0. New York Jets connected on a field goal from the IND 25 (Q4 13:28) — (13:28) 3-J.Feely 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-11-K.Clemens.; New York Jets found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q4 5:42) — (5:42) (Run formation) 20-T.Jones right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets registered a safety from the IND 2 (Q4 5:38) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-M.Sanchez pass to 17-B.Edwards is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 16:38) — (1:38) (Run formation) 7-C.Painter sacked at IND 12 for -8 yards (97-C.Pace). FUMBLES (97-C.Pace), touched at IND 10, RECOVERED by NYJ-93-M.Douglas at IND 1. 93-M.Douglas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 10 sac [WPA -27.8% · EPA -8.03]
• New York Jets (Q3 30:00) — 1-P.McAfee kicks 76 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -6. 16-B.Smith for 106 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.5% · EPA +6.79]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 52:35) — (7:35) 31-D.Brown right tackle to NYJ 31 for no gain (57-Ba.Scott). PENALTY on NYJ-57-Ba.Scott, Tripping, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 31 - No Play. [WPA +10.6% · EPA +2.12]
• New York Jets (Q3 16:29) — (Run formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-M.Sanchez pass to 81-D.Keller is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. [WPA +7.5% · EPA +1.05]
• New York Jets (Q3 23:00) — (8:00) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanchez pass short left to 89-J.Cotchery ran ob at IND 46 for 16 yards. [WPA +7.4% · EPA +2.42]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 16:38) — (1:38) (Run formation) 7-C.Painter sacked at IND 12 for -8 yards (97-C.Pace). FUMBLES (97-C.Pace), touched at IND 10, RECOVERED by NYJ-93-M.Douglas at IND 1. 93-M.Douglas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 10 sac [WPA -27.8% · EPA -8.03]
• New York Jets (Q3 30:00) — 1-P.McAfee kicks 76 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -6. 16-B.Smith for 106 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.5% · EPA +6.79]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 4:52) — (4:52) (Shotgun) 7-C.Painter pass short left intended for 84-J.Tamme INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Lowery at NYJ 35. 21-D.Lowery pushed ob at NYJ 42 for 7 yards (86-T.Santi). [WPA -3.2% · EPA -4.41]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 38:49) — (8:49) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 17-A.Collie to IND 39 for 22 yards (26-L.Sheppard). NYJ-97-C.Pace was injured during the play. His return is Probable. [WPA +5.5% · EPA +3.11]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 25 dropbacks · 56.0% completion · +10.5% CPOE · +0.42 EPA/play · +10.49 total EPA
• M.Sanchez (New York Jets) · 24 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -4.5% CPOE · -0.08 EPA/play · -1.99 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New York Jets generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.08 vs -0.15), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Indianapolis Colts: 12 drives, -11.77 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New York Jets: 13 drives, +6.23 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New York Jets leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Manning (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• M. Sanchez (NYJ) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 52:00 · NYJ 21 · Score 0-6
   (7:00) (Shotgun) 29-J.Addai up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 41:50 · NYJ 4 · Score 0-9
   (11:50) 4-A.Vinatieri 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
3. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q2 31:49 · IND 17 · Score 3-9
   (1:49) 3-J.Feely 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-11-K.Clemens.
4. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q2 30:32 · Score 3-9
   Timeout #2 by IND at 00:32.
5. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q3 30:00 · IND 30 · Score 9-9
   1-P.McAfee kicks 76 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -6. 16-B.Smith for 106 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q3 29:48 · IND 2 · Score 10-9
   3-J.Feely extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-11-K.Clemens.
7. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 25:20 · NYJ 1 · Score 10-15
   (10:20) (Run formation) 31-D.Brown right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q3 16:38 · NYJ 80 · Score 16-15
   (1:38) (Run formation) 7-C.Painter sacked at IND 12 for -8 yards (97-C.Pace). FUMBLES (97-C.Pace), touched at IND 10, RECOVERED by NYJ-93-M.Douglas at IND 1. 93
9. New York Jets Safety (+2) — Q3 16:29 · IND 2 · Score 18-15
   (Run formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-M.Sanchez pass to 81-D.Keller is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
10. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q4 13:28 · IND 25 · Score 21-15
    (13:28) 3-J.Feely 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-11-K.Clemens.
11. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q4 5:42 · IND 1 · Score 27-15
    (5:42) (Run formation) 20-T.Jones right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. New York Jets Safety (+2) — Q4 5:38 · IND 2 · Score 29-15
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-M.Sanchez pass to 17-B.Edwards is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.