New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills: 2023 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season on 2023-11-19, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the New York Jets, pulling away with a 32–6 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 16 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +12.78 total EPA, and -3.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.78 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-8.5% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when New York Jets changed the game: 2-T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 8. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 22 for 14 yards (41-R.Gilliam). FUMBLES (41-R.Gilliam), RECOVERED by BUF-85-Q.Morris at NYJ 21.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +12.78 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Shakir · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +8.24 total EPA · 4 snaps · +2.06 EPA/play
3. 3 Bre. Hall · New York Jets · Receiving · +6.17 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.03 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Johnson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.46 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.82 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Cook · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.02 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.76 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Morstead · New York Jets · Passing · +2.67 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.67 EPA/play
7. 7 B. Echols · New York Jets · Receiving · +2.67 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.67 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Boyle · New York Jets · Rushing · +2.07 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.07 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — J. Cook (J. Allen pass) (Q2 33:08)
• New York Jets — Z. Wilson (Q2 30:50)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Johnson (J. Allen pass) (Q3 25:41)
• Buffalo Bills — K. Shakir (J. Allen pass) (Q3 21:42)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q1 58:35)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q1 50:59)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q2 41:29)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q4 5:21)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q4 5:16)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 6–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NYJ 30 (Q1 58:35) — (13:35) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NYJ 12 (Q1 50:59) — (5:59) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–6. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NYJ 15 (Q2 41:29) — (11:29) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NYJ 5 (Q2 33:08) — (3:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NYJ 15 (Q2 33:03) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; New York Jets found the end zone from the BUF 9 (Q2 30:50) — (:50) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 20-Bre.Hall for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 13–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NYJ 28 (Q3 25:41) — (10:41) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NYJ 81 (Q3 21:42) — (6:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NYJ 15 (Q3 21:29) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 6–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NYJ 32 (Q4 5:21) — (5:21) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the BUF 35 (Q4 5:16) — 2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 2. 25-I.Abanikanda to NYJ 21 for 19 yards (33-S.Neal)..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New York Jets (Q1 60:00) — 2-T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 8. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 22 for 14 yards (41-R.Gilliam). FUMBLES (41-R.Gilliam), RECOVERED by BUF-85-Q.Morris at NYJ 21. [WPA -8.5% · EPA -5.69]
• New York Jets (Q2 35:25) — (5:25) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left intended for 17-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NYJ 31. 31-R.Douglas to NYJ 23 for 8 yards (17-G.Wilson). [WPA -8.3% · EPA -4.65]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 59:15) — (14:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at NYJ 30 for -12 yards (95-Q.Williams). [WPA -6.0% · EPA -2.62]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 59:53) — (14:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to NYJ 18 for 3 yards (26-B.Echols). [WPA +6.0% · EPA -0.17]
• New York Jets (Q1 57:58) — (12:58) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 32 for -10 yards (90-S.Lawson). [WPA -5.2% · EPA -1.69]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 21:42) — (6:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +4.2% · EPA +6.51]
• New York Jets (Q1 60:00) — 2-T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 8. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 22 for 14 yards (41-R.Gilliam). FUMBLES (41-R.Gilliam), RECOVERED by BUF-85-Q.Morris at NYJ 21. [WPA -8.5% · EPA -5.69]
• New York Jets (Q4 14:20) — (14:20) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to BUF 37 for 5 yards (25-T.Dodson). FUMBLES (25-T.Dodson), touched at BUF 37, RECOVERED by BUF-31-R.Douglas at BUF 37. 31-R.Douglas to BUF 3 [WPA -0.5% · EPA -4.98]
• New York Jets (Q2 35:25) — (5:25) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left intended for 17-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NYJ 31. 31-R.Douglas to NYJ 23 for 8 yards (17-G.Wilson). [WPA -8.3% · EPA -4.65]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 39 dropbacks · 51.3% completion · -3.4% CPOE · +0.33 EPA/play · +12.78 total EPA
• Z.Wilson (New York Jets) · 27 dropbacks · 25.9% completion · -17.7% CPOE · -0.26 EPA/play · -7.14 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Buffalo Bills held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.07 vs -0.34), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 12 drives, +5.97 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• New York Jets: 11 drives, -25.21 total EPA, 1 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Allen (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• Z. Wilson (NYJ) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 58:35 · NYJ 30 · Score 0-3
   (13:35) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
2. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 50:59 · NYJ 12 · Score 0-6
   (5:59) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 41:29 · NYJ 15 · Score 0-9
   (11:29) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 33:08 · NYJ 5 · Score 0-15
   (3:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 33:03 · NYJ 15 · Score 0-16
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
6. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q2 30:50 · BUF 9 · Score 6-16
   (:50) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 20-Bre.Hall for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 25:41 · NYJ 28 · Score 6-22
   (10:41) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 21:42 · NYJ 81 · Score 6-28
   (6:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 21:29 · NYJ 15 · Score 6-29
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
10. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 5:21 · NYJ 32 · Score 6-32
    (5:21) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
11. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 5:16 · BUF 35 · Score 6-32
    2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 2. 25-I.Abanikanda to NYJ 21 for 19 yards (33-S.Neal).