New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2013 NFL season on 2013-11-17, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the New York Jets, pulling away with a 37–14 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

E. Manuel (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +8.30 total EPA, and +11.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, E. Manuel (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.30 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+8.6% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (4:13) (No Huddle) 3-E.Manuel pass deep left to 11-T.Graham for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-D.Davis]. Thrown under pressure, caught near sideline at NYJ 6.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 E. Manuel · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +8.30 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Goodwin · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.28 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Graham · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.39 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.10 EPA/play
4. 4 G. Salas · New York Jets · Receiving · +2.97 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.48 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Hogan · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.92 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.73 EPA/play
6. 6 E. Manuel · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +2.73 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Ivory · New York Jets · Rushing · +2.63 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
8. 8 S. Chandler · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.04 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — T. Graham (E. Manuel pass) (Q2 34:13)
• Buffalo Bills — F. Summers (Q2 33:19)
• New York Jets — C. Ivory (Q3 22:21)
• Buffalo Bills — M. Goodwin (E. Manuel pass) (Q3 19:46)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Searcy (Q3 16:20)
• New York Jets — J. Cumberland (M. Simms pass) (Q4 9:41)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q2 42:44)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q2 31:19)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q4 4:07)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 20–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NYJ 22 (Q2 42:44) — (12:44) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NYJ 34 (Q2 34:13); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q2 34:05) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NYJ 3 (Q2 33:19) — (3:19) 38-F.Summers up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q2 33:17) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NYJ 24 (Q2 31:19) — (1:19) 2-D.Carpenter 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–7. New York Jets found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q3 22:21); New York Jets added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 22:18) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-1-R.Quigley.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NYJ 43 (Q3 19:46) — (4:46) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass deep right to 88-M.Goodwin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in coverage at NYJ 3.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q3 19:40) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 64 (Q3 16:20); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q3 16:14) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The fourth quarter: New York Jets won the period 7–3. New York Jets found the end zone from the BUF 13 (Q4 9:41) — (9:41) 5-M.Simms pass short middle to 87-J.Cumberland for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Curl pattern, caught at BUF 2.; New York Jets added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 9:36) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-1-R.Quigley.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NYJ 24 (Q4 4:07) — (4:07) 2-D.Carpenter 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 34:13) — (4:13) (No Huddle) 3-E.Manuel pass deep left to 11-T.Graham for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-D.Davis]. Thrown under pressure, caught near sideline at NYJ 6. [WPA +8.6% · EPA +5.03]
• New York Jets (Q1 50:56) — (5:56) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-1-R.Quigley. [WPA -8.5% · EPA -3.81]
• New York Jets (Q1 53:23) — (8:23) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 10-S.Holmes pushed ob at BUF 32 for 33 yards (24-S.Gilmore). Caught near sideline at BUF 41. [WPA +8.2% · EPA +2.52]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 44:22) — (14:22) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass short right to 15-C.Hogan to NYJ 29 for 12 yards (52-D.Harris). Caught near sideline at NYJ 35. [WPA +8.1% · EPA +1.91]
• New York Jets (Q2 33:59) — (3:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 13 for -7 yards (95-K.Williams). FUMBLES (95-K.Williams), RECOVERED by BUF-91-M.Lawson at NYJ 5. 91-M.Lawson to NYJ 4 for 1 yard (67-B.Winters). [WPA -7.7% · EPA -5.67]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New York Jets (Q3 16:20) — (1:20) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 10-S.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Searcy at NYJ 32. 25-D.Searcy for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WR screen. [WPA -1.0% · EPA -7.63]
• New York Jets (Q2 33:59) — (3:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 13 for -7 yards (95-K.Williams). FUMBLES (95-K.Williams), RECOVERED by BUF-91-M.Lawson at NYJ 5. 91-M.Lawson to NYJ 4 for 1 yard (67-B.Winters). [WPA -7.7% · EPA -5.67]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 34:13) — (4:13) (No Huddle) 3-E.Manuel pass deep left to 11-T.Graham for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-D.Davis]. Thrown under pressure, caught near sideline at NYJ 6. [WPA +8.6% · EPA +5.03]
• New York Jets (Q3 24:24) — (9:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 10-S.Holmes pushed ob at BUF 5 for 38 yards (23-A.Williams). Caught near sideline at BUF 17. [WPA +3.8% · EPA +4.72]

Quarterback report card

E.Manuel led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• E.Manuel (Buffalo Bills) · 31 dropbacks · 64.5% completion · +11.4% CPOE · +0.27 EPA/play · +8.30 total EPA
• G.Smith (New York Jets) · 28 dropbacks · 28.6% completion · -23.3% CPOE · -0.83 EPA/play · -23.30 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Buffalo Bills held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.03 vs -0.27), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 15 drives, +2.48 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• New York Jets: 14 drives, -20.86 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• E. Manuel (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• E. Manuel (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• G. Smith (NYJ) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 42:44 · NYJ 22 · Score 0-3
   (12:44) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
2. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 34:13 · NYJ 34 · Score 0-9
   (4:13) (No Huddle) 3-E.Manuel pass deep left to 11-T.Graham for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-D.Davis]. Thrown under pressure, caught near sideline at NYJ 6.
3. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 34:05 · NYJ 2 · Score 0-10
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 33:19 · NYJ 3 · Score 0-16
   (3:19) 38-F.Summers up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 33:17 · NYJ 2 · Score 0-17
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
6. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 31:19 · NYJ 24 · Score 0-20
   (1:19) 2-D.Carpenter 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
7. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q3 22:21 · BUF 1 · Score 6-20
   (7:21) 33-C.Ivory up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld.
8. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q3 22:18 · BUF 2 · Score 7-20
   2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-1-R.Quigley.
9. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 19:46 · NYJ 43 · Score 7-26
   (4:46) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass deep right to 88-M.Goodwin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in coverage at NYJ 3.
10. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 19:40 · NYJ 2 · Score 7-27
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
11. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 16:20 · BUF 64 · Score 7-33
    (1:20) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 10-S.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Searcy at NYJ 32. 25-D.Searcy for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WR screen.
12. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 16:14 · NYJ 2 · Score 7-34
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
13. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q4 9:41 · BUF 13 · Score 13-34
    (9:41) 5-M.Simms pass short middle to 87-J.Cumberland for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Curl pattern, caught at BUF 2.
14. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q4 9:36 · BUF 2 · Score 14-34
    2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-1-R.Quigley.
15. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 4:07 · NYJ 24 · Score 14-37
    (4:07) 2-D.Carpenter 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.