New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2023 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season on 2023-12-31, the New Orleans Saints took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pulling away with a 23–13 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 16 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) paced the passing game, with +5.79 total EPA, and -0.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, C. Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.01 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+9.8% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when New Orleans Saints changed the game: (11:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 12-C.Olave to TB 31 for 11 yards (27-Z.McCollum).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 C. Godwin · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +10.01 total EPA · 5 snaps · +2.00 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Carr · New Orleans Saints · Passing · +9.25 total EPA · 33 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Johnson · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +7.42 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.62 EPA/play
4. 4 B. Mayfield · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +5.79 total EPA · 40 snaps · +0.14 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Hill · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +3.48 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.74 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.62 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Edmonds · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +1.88 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
8. 8 F. Moreau · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +1.71 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.71 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New Orleans Saints — J. Johnson (D. Carr pass) (Q1 52:08)
• New Orleans Saints — T. Hill (D. Carr pass) (Q2 32:00)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — T. Palmer (B. Mayfield pass) (Q4 7:56)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Godwin (B. Mayfield pass) (Q4 1:47)

Field goals

• New Orleans Saints — B. Grupe (Q2 30:14)
• New Orleans Saints — B. Grupe (Q3 19:29)
• New Orleans Saints — B. Grupe (Q4 3:51)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 7–0. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the TB 4 (Q1 52:08) — (7:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q1 52:04) — 19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley..

The second quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 10–0. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the TB 22 (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 7-T.Hill for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 31:53) — 19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the TB 27 (Q2 30:14) — (:14) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley..

The third quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 3–0. New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the TB 10 (Q3 19:29) — (4:29) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley..

The fourth quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 13–3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the NO 22 (Q4 7:56) — (7:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 10-T.Palmer for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q4 7:50) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the TB 20 (Q4 3:51) — (3:51) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the NO 47 (Q4 1:47) — (1:47) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New Orleans Saints (Q1 56:40) — (11:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 12-C.Olave to TB 31 for 11 yards (27-Z.McCollum). [WPA +9.8% · EPA +2.15]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 40:57) — (10:57) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-J.Johnson to NO 36 for 32 yards (31-A.Winfield). [WPA +9.7% · EPA +3.17]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 45:15) — (:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to NO 39 for 33 yards (29-P.Adebo). [WPA +7.9% · EPA +3.37]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 42:03) — (12:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 10-T.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at NO 2. 1-A.Taylor to NO 2 for no gain (88-C.Otton). NO-45-N.Sewell was injured during the play. [WPA -6.4% · EPA -2.62]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q3 22:46) — (7:46) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right end to NO 27 for 16 yards (24-J.Abram). FUMBLES (24-J.Abram), RECOVERED by NO-56-D.Davis at NO 25. 56-D.Davis to NO 45 for 20 yards (67-L.Goedeke). [WPA -5.6% · EPA -5.51]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q3 22:46) — (7:46) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right end to NO 27 for 16 yards (24-J.Abram). FUMBLES (24-J.Abram), RECOVERED by NO-56-D.Davis at NO 25. 56-D.Davis to NO 45 for 20 yards (67-L.Goedeke). [WPA -5.6% · EPA -5.51]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 1:47) — (1:47) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +0.6% · EPA +5.00]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 11:34) — (11:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 19-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Abram (92-T.Kpassagnon) at NO 46. 24-J.Abram to NO 46 for no gain (19-D.Moore). [WPA -1.3% · EPA -4.85]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 8:20) — (8:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to NO 22 for 16 yards (29-P.Adebo, 32-T.Mathieu). [WPA -0.1% · EPA +4.06]

Quarterback report card

B.Mayfield led all passers in efficiency for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 40 dropbacks · 55.0% completion · -0.9% CPOE · +0.14 EPA/play · +5.79 total EPA
• D.Carr (New Orleans Saints) · 33 dropbacks · 72.7% completion · +4.3% CPOE · +0.28 EPA/play · +9.25 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New Orleans Saints generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.04 vs -0.14), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• New Orleans Saints: 12 drives, +3.63 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 12 drives, -9.91 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New Orleans Saints leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• C. Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Carr (NO) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q1 52:08 · TB 4 · Score 6-0
   (7:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q1 52:04 · TB 15 · Score 7-0
   19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
3. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q2 32:00 · TB 22 · Score 13-0
   (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 7-T.Hill for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q2 31:53 · TB 15 · Score 14-0
   19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
5. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q2 30:14 · TB 27 · Score 17-0
   (:14) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
6. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q3 19:29 · TB 10 · Score 20-0
   (4:29) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 7:56 · NO 22 · Score 20-6
   (7:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 10-T.Palmer for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q4 7:50 · NO 15 · Score 20-7
   4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
9. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q4 3:51 · TB 20 · Score 23-7
   (3:51) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 1:47 · NO 47 · Score 23-13
    (1:47) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.