New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2019 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season on 2019-11-17, the New Orleans Saints took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pulling away with a 34–17 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) paced the passing game, with -6.12 total EPA, and -2.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.85 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-14.5% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Tampa Bay Buccaneers changed the game: (:10) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis (43-M.Williams) at TB 17. 56-D.Davis to TB 16 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Brees · New Orleans Saints · Passing · +10.85 total EPA · 36 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Thomas · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +8.35 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play
3. 3 S. Miller · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +4.13 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.69 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Cook · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +4.01 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.01 EPA/play
5. 5 P. Barber · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +3.47 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.74 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Godwin · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.96 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Ginn · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +2.06 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Brate · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +1.88 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New Orleans Saints — M. Thomas (D. Brees pass) (Q1 45:03)
• New Orleans Saints — J. Cook (D. Brees pass) (Q2 35:19)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — P. Barber (J. Winston pass) (Q2 32:47)
• New Orleans Saints — T. Ginn (D. Brees pass) (Q3 20:32)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Godwin (J. Winston pass) (Q3 16:31)
• New Orleans Saints — M. Williams (Q4 5:19)

Field goals

• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q1 53:49)
• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q1 45:54)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Gay (Q3 26:13)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 13–0. New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the TB 26 (Q1 53:49) — (8:49) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the TB 8 (Q1 45:54) — (:54) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the TB 16 (Q1 45:03) — (:03) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q1 45:00) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the TB 3 (Q2 35:19) — (5:19) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 87-J.Cook for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 35:13) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the NO 6 (Q2 32:47) — (2:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 25-P.Barber for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q2 32:42) — 9-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion..

The third quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 10–7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the NO 37 (Q3 26:13) — (11:13) 9-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the TB 6 (Q3 20:32) — (5:32) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 19-T.Ginn for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q3 20:27) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the NO 30 (Q3 16:31) — (1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q3 16:22) — 9-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion..

The fourth quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 7–0. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the NO 67 (Q4 5:19); New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q4 5:07) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 45:10) — (:10) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis (43-M.Williams) at TB 17. 56-D.Davis to TB 16 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard). [WPA -14.5% · EPA -4.81]
• New Orleans Saints (Q1 57:19) — (12:19) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to TB 30 for 30 yards (39-A.Adams). [WPA +9.5% · EPA +2.61]
• New Orleans Saints (Q1 55:59) — (10:59) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill sacked at TB 37 for -9 yards (34-M.Edwards). [WPA -6.0% · EPA -2.23]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 33:43) — (3:43) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 10-S.Miller for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-J.Winston pass deep righ [WPA +5.5% · EPA +4.04]
• New Orleans Saints (Q3 23:22) — (8:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas pushed ob at TB 17 for 41 yards (39-A.Adams). [WPA +5.0% · EPA +3.57]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 5:19) — (5:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at NO 45. 43-M.Williams for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -3.9% · EPA -6.01]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 2:52) — (2:52) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at NO 0. Touchback. Penalty on TB-84-C.Brate, Illegal Motion, declined. [WPA -0.8% · EPA -5.97]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 45:10) — (:10) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis (43-M.Williams) at TB 17. 56-D.Davis to TB 16 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard). [WPA -14.5% · EPA -4.81]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 33:43) — (3:43) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 10-S.Miller for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-J.Winston pass deep righ [WPA +5.5% · EPA +4.04]

Quarterback report card

J.Winston led all passers in efficiency for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 60 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -2.5% CPOE · -0.10 EPA/play · -6.12 total EPA
• D.Brees (New Orleans Saints) · 36 dropbacks · 77.8% completion · +14.6% CPOE · +0.30 EPA/play · +10.85 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New Orleans Saints generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.13 vs -0.14), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• New Orleans Saints: 10 drives, +11.07 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10 drives, -11.38 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New Orleans Saints leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Brees (NO) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q1 53:49 · TB 26 · Score 3-0
   (8:49) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
2. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q1 45:54 · TB 8 · Score 6-0
   (:54) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
3. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q1 45:03 · TB 16 · Score 12-0
   (:03) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q1 45:00 · TB 15 · Score 13-0
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
5. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q2 35:19 · TB 3 · Score 19-0
   (5:19) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 87-J.Cook for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q2 35:13 · TB 15 · Score 20-0
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 32:47 · NO 6 · Score 20-6
   (2:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 25-P.Barber for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 32:42 · NO 15 · Score 20-7
   9-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q3 26:13 · NO 37 · Score 20-10
   (11:13) 9-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
10. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q3 20:32 · TB 6 · Score 26-10
    (5:32) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 19-T.Ginn for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q3 20:27 · TB 15 · Score 27-10
    3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q3 16:31 · NO 30 · Score 27-16
    (1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q3 16:22 · NO 15 · Score 27-17
    9-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
14. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 5:19 · NO 67 · Score 33-17
    (5:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at NO 45. 43-M.Williams for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 5:07 · TB 15 · Score 34-17
    3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.