New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers: 2020 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2020 NFL season on 2021-01-03, the New Orleans Saints took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 33–7 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) paced the passing game, with +5.19 total EPA, and +8.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.19 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-18.0% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (10:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NO -2. 27-M.Jenkins pushed ob at NO 46 for 48 yards (10-C.Samuel).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Brees · New Orleans Saints · Passing · +5.19 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.15 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Smith · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +4.76 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Callaway · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +3.94 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.98 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Cook · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +3.69 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.74 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Hill · New Orleans Saints · Rushing · +3.56 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Carr · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +2.09 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.09 EPA/play
7. 7 E. Sanders · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +1.84 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.14 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Stevens · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +1.73 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New Orleans Saints — J. Cook (D. Brees pass) (Q1 54:09)
• Carolina Panthers — R. Smith (Q1 46:44)
• New Orleans Saints — E. Sanders (D. Brees pass) (Q2 38:17)
• New Orleans Saints — T. Hill (Q3 20:00)
• New Orleans Saints — A. Carr (D. Brees pass) (Q4 15:00)

Field goals

• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q2 30:05)
• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q3 26:54)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 18 (Q1 54:09) — (9:09) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 87-J.Cook for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Brown].; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q1 54:04) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 1 (Q1 46:44) — (1:44) 35-R.Smith left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q1 46:40) — 4-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton..

The second quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 9–0. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 8 (Q2 38:17) — (8:17) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 17-E.Sanders for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the CAR 15 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

The third quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 10–0. New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the CAR 29 (Q3 26:54) — (11:54) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 3 (Q3 20:00) — (5:00) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q3 19:56) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

The fourth quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 7–0. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 11 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 80-A.Carr for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 14:55) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q2 40:49) — (10:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NO -2. 27-M.Jenkins pushed ob at NO 46 for 48 yards (10-C.Samuel). [WPA -18.0% · EPA -7.20]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 39:24) — (9:24) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 88-T.Montgomery left end pushed ob at CAR 11 for 36 yards (33-T.Boston). [WPA +11.1% · EPA +2.89]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 32:52) — (2:52) (Shotgun) 10-C.Samuel up the middle to NO 22 for -1 yards (90-M.Brown). [WPA -10.1% · EPA -3.33]
• Carolina Panthers (Q3 24:41) — (9:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 30-G.Haley at NO -5. Touchback. [WPA -9.8% · EPA -5.34]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 43:49) — (13:49) 35-R.Smith right guard to NO 41 for 4 yards (26-P.Williams). [WPA +9.2% · EPA +2.21]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q2 40:49) — (10:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NO -2. 27-M.Jenkins pushed ob at NO 46 for 48 yards (10-C.Samuel). [WPA -18.0% · EPA -7.20]
• Carolina Panthers (Q3 24:41) — (9:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 30-G.Haley at NO -5. Touchback. [WPA -9.8% · EPA -5.34]
• Carolina Panthers (Q3 21:12) — (6:12) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass short middle intended for 10-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at CAR 37. 23-M.Lattimore to CAR 24 for 13 yards (80-I.Thomas). [WPA -5.3% · EPA -4.92]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 4:22) — (4:22) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass deep middle intended for 11-R.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams [92-M.Davenport] at NO 1. 26-P.Williams to NO 31 for 30 yards (10-C.Samuel). [WPA +0.0% · EPA -3.84]

Quarterback report card

D.Brees led all passers in efficiency for New Orleans Saints, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Brees (New Orleans Saints) · 34 dropbacks · 64.7% completion · +8.2% CPOE · +0.15 EPA/play · +5.19 total EPA
• T.Bridgewater (Carolina Panthers) · 27 dropbacks · 48.1% completion · -3.9% CPOE · -0.30 EPA/play · -8.00 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New Orleans Saints generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.12 vs -0.32), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Carolina Panthers: 11 drives, -23.55 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• New Orleans Saints: 12 drives, +9.24 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New Orleans Saints leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Brees (NO) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Bridgewater (CAR) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q1 54:09 · CAR 18 · Score 6-0
   (9:09) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 87-J.Cook for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Brown].
2. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q1 54:04 · CAR 15 · Score 7-0
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
3. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 46:44 · NO 1 · Score 7-6
   (1:44) 35-R.Smith left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 46:40 · NO 15 · Score 7-7
   4-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
5. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q2 38:17 · CAR 8 · Score 13-7
   (8:17) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 17-E.Sanders for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · CAR 15 · Score 16-7
   (:05) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
7. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q3 26:54 · CAR 29 · Score 19-7
   (11:54) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
8. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q3 20:00 · CAR 3 · Score 25-7
   (5:00) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q3 19:56 · CAR 15 · Score 26-7
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
10. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · CAR 11 · Score 32-7
    (15:00) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 80-A.Carr for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 14:55 · CAR 15 · Score 33-7
    3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.