New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers: 2018 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-17, the New Orleans Saints took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 12–9 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 10 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) paced the passing game, with -7.45 total EPA, and -1.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, C. McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +6.55 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-19.9% win probability) landed in the second quarter when New Orleans Saints changed the game: (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 85-D.Arnold INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry (58-T.Davis) at CAR 29. 24-J.Bradberry to NO 42 for 29 yards (10-T.Smith).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 C. McCaffrey · Carolina Panthers · Passing · +6.55 total EPA · 1 snaps · +6.55 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Kirkwood · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +5.27 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.63 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Manhertz · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +4.88 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.44 EPA/play
4. 4 A. Kamara · New Orleans Saints · Rushing · +2.82 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.20 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Samuel · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +2.38 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Hill · New Orleans Saints · Rushing · +1.88 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.88 EPA/play
7. 7 B. Watson · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +0.90 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Wright · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +0.89 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.22 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Carolina Panthers — C. Manhertz (C. McCaffrey pass) (Q1 49:12)
• New Orleans Saints — A. Kamara (Q4 12:18)

Field goals

• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q1 47:20)
• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q2 40:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–3. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 50 (Q1 49:12) — (4:12) 74-C.Clark reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey pass short right to 82-C.Manhertz for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q1 49:02) — 4-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the CAR 28 (Q1 47:20) — (2:20) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

The second quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 3–0. New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the CAR 6 (Q2 40:00) — (10:00) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

The fourth quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 6–2. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 16 (Q4 12:18) — (12:18) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers registered a safety from the CAR 2 (Q4 12:12).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New Orleans Saints (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 85-D.Arnold INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry (58-T.Davis) at CAR 29. 24-J.Bradberry to NO 42 for 29 yards (10-T.Smith). [WPA -19.9% · EPA -4.29]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 49:12) — (4:12) 74-C.Clark reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey pass short right to 82-C.Manhertz for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +19.1% · EPA +6.55]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 30:18) — (:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 17-D.Funchess INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Apple at NO 0. Touchback. [WPA -18.7% · EPA -3.53]
• New Orleans Saints (Q4 1:51) — (1:51) 11-T.Lewis right end to CAR 1 for 4 yards (24-J.Bradberry). FUMBLES (24-J.Bradberry), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback. Penalty on NO-13-M.Thomas, Offensive Holding, declined. The Repl [WPA -18.6% · EPA -4.25]
• New Orleans Saints (Q4 12:12) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-D.Brees pass to 13-M.Thomas is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 26-D.Jackson intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. [WPA -14.3% · EPA -2.95]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q1 49:12) — (4:12) 74-C.Clark reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey pass short right to 82-C.Manhertz for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +19.1% · EPA +6.55]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 85-D.Arnold INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry (58-T.Davis) at CAR 29. 24-J.Bradberry to NO 42 for 29 yards (10-T.Smith). [WPA -19.9% · EPA -4.29]
• New Orleans Saints (Q4 1:51) — (1:51) 11-T.Lewis right end to CAR 1 for 4 yards (24-J.Bradberry). FUMBLES (24-J.Bradberry), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback. Penalty on NO-13-M.Thomas, Offensive Holding, declined. The Repl [WPA -18.6% · EPA -4.25]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 30:18) — (:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 17-D.Funchess INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Apple at NO 0. Touchback. [WPA -18.7% · EPA -3.53]

Quarterback report card

D.Brees led all passers in efficiency for New Orleans Saints, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Brees (New Orleans Saints) · 42 dropbacks · 54.8% completion · -1.4% CPOE · -0.18 EPA/play · -7.45 total EPA
• C.Newton (Carolina Panthers) · 34 dropbacks · 47.1% completion · -14.5% CPOE · -0.38 EPA/play · -12.89 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New Orleans Saints generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.05 vs -0.17), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Carolina Panthers: 10 drives, -11.70 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• New Orleans Saints: 11 drives, -4.63 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New Orleans Saints leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• C. McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Newton (CAR) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 49:12 · NO 50 · Score 0-6
   (4:12) 74-C.Clark reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey pass short right to 82-C.Manhertz for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 49:02 · NO 15 · Score 0-7
   4-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
3. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q1 47:20 · CAR 28 · Score 3-7
   (2:20) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
4. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q2 40:00 · CAR 6 · Score 6-7
   (10:00) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
5. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 12:18 · CAR 16 · Score 12-7
   (12:18) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Carolina Panthers Safety (+2) — Q4 12:12 · CAR 2 · Score 12-9
   TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-D.Brees pass to 13-M.Thomas is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 26-D.Jackson intercepted the try attempt.