New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers: 2009 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2009 NFL season on 2010-01-03, the Carolina Panthers took care of business against the New Orleans Saints, pulling away with a 23–10 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Brunell (New Orleans Saints) paced the passing game, with -13.37 total EPA, and -8.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Jarrett (Carolina Panthers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +6.97 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+15.0% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (14:20) 28-J.Stewart right tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Jarrett · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +6.97 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.39 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Stewart · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +4.75 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
3. 3 L. Hamilton · New Orleans Saints · Rushing · +4.34 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Muhammad · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +2.16 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.22 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Dinkins · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +1.49 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Hoover · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +0.30 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Humphrey · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +0.18 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Moore · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +0.00 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.00 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Carolina Panthers — J. Stewart (Q1 59:20)
• Carolina Panthers — D. Jarrett (M. Moore pass) (Q2 30:20)
• New Orleans Saints — L. Hamilton (Q3 15:10)

Field goals

• New Orleans Saints — G. Hartley (Q2 41:19)
• Carolina Panthers — J. Kasay (Q2 30:05)
• Carolina Panthers — J. Kasay (Q3 23:11)
• Carolina Panthers — J. Kasay (Q3 20:12)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 67 (Q1 59:20) — (14:20) 28-J.Stewart right tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 2 (Q1 59:08) — 4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

The second quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 10–3. New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the CAR 17 (Q2 41:19) — (11:19) 5-G.Hartley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-J.Kyle, Holder-11-M.Brunell.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 30 (Q2 30:20) — (:20) (Shotgun) 3-M.Moore pass deep middle to 80-D.Jarrett for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by Replay Assistant and Upheld.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 2 (Q2 30:13) — 4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 23 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 4-J.Kasay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

The third quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 7–6. Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 21 (Q3 23:11) — (8:11) 4-J.Kasay 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 19 (Q3 20:12) — (5:12) 4-J.Kasay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 1 (Q3 15:10) — (:10) 30-L.Hamilton left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q3 15:07) — 5-G.Hartley extra point is GOOD, Center-57-J.Kyle, Holder-11-M.Brunell..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q1 59:20) — (14:20) 28-J.Stewart right tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.0% · EPA +5.71]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 30:20) — (:20) (Shotgun) 3-M.Moore pass deep middle to 80-D.Jarrett for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by Replay Assistant and Upheld. [WPA +7.6% · EPA +5.42]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 30:28) — (:28) (Shotgun) 3-M.Moore pass short left to 80-D.Jarrett to NO 30 for 5 yards (20-R.Gay). [WPA +7.3% · EPA +0.74]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 30:13) — 5-R.Lloyd kicks 69 yards from CAR 30 to NO 1. 15-C.Roby to NO 23 for 22 yards (23-S.Martin). FUMBLES (23-S.Martin), RECOVERED by CAR-21-D.Wesley at NO 23. 21-D.Wesley to NO 23 for no gain (84-T.Humphr [WPA -7.1% · EPA -2.39]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 43:45) — (13:45) 25-R.Bush up the middle to CAR 25 for 16 yards (20-C.Gamble). [WPA +6.4% · EPA +1.88]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q1 59:20) — (14:20) 28-J.Stewart right tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.0% · EPA +5.71]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 30:20) — (:20) (Shotgun) 3-M.Moore pass deep middle to 80-D.Jarrett for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by Replay Assistant and Upheld. [WPA +7.6% · EPA +5.42]
• New Orleans Saints (Q4 2:34) — (2:34) (Shotgun) 11-M.Brunell pass short middle intended for 30-L.Hamilton INTERCEPTED by 90-J.Peppers at CAR 23. 90-J.Peppers to CAR 23 for no gain (64-Z.Strief). [WPA -2.3% · EPA -4.36]
• New Orleans Saints (Q3 22:23) — (7:23) 11-M.Brunell pass short left to 17-R.Meachem to NO 23 for 12 yards (30-C.Godfrey). FUMBLES (30-C.Godfrey), RECOVERED by CAR-31-R.Marshall at NO 27. 31-R.Marshall to NO 27 for no gain (17-R.Meac [WPA -0.8% · EPA -3.20]

Quarterback report card

M.Brunell led all passers in efficiency for New Orleans Saints, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Brunell (New Orleans Saints) · 30 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -8.5% CPOE · -0.45 EPA/play · -13.37 total EPA
• M.Moore (Carolina Panthers) · 26 dropbacks · 53.8% completion · -2.6% CPOE · -0.02 EPA/play · -0.55 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Carolina Panthers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (-0.02 vs -0.15), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Carolina Panthers: 15 drives, -1.53 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• New Orleans Saints: 14 drives, -12.26 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Carolina Panthers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. Jarrett (Carolina Panthers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Brunell (NO) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 59:20 · NO 67 · Score 0-6
   (14:20) 28-J.Stewart right tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 59:08 · NO 2 · Score 0-7
   4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
3. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q2 41:19 · CAR 17 · Score 3-7
   (11:19) 5-G.Hartley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-J.Kyle, Holder-11-M.Brunell.
4. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 30:20 · NO 30 · Score 3-13
   (:20) (Shotgun) 3-M.Moore pass deep middle to 80-D.Jarrett for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by Replay Assistant and Upheld.
5. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 30:13 · NO 2 · Score 3-14
   4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
6. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · NO 23 · Score 3-17
   (:05) 4-J.Kasay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
7. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q3 23:11 · NO 21 · Score 3-20
   (8:11) 4-J.Kasay 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
8. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q3 20:12 · NO 19 · Score 3-23
   (5:12) 4-J.Kasay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
9. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q3 15:10 · CAR 1 · Score 9-23
   (:10) 30-L.Hamilton left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q3 15:07 · CAR 2 · Score 10-23
    5-G.Hartley extra point is GOOD, Center-57-J.Kyle, Holder-11-M.Brunell.