New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins: 2020 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2020 NFL season on 2020-12-20, the Miami Dolphins took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 22–12 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 18 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Newton (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with -3.92 total EPA, and +1.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. White (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +4.38 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-11.8% win probability) landed in the third quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (9:58) (No Huddle) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 16-J.Meyers to NE 49 for 20 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-44-E.Roberts at NE 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumbl

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. White · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.38 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.10 EPA/play
2. 2 S. Ahmed · Miami Dolphins · Rushing · +4.08 total EPA · 23 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Breida · Miami Dolphins · Rushing · +2.98 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
4. 4 S. Michel · New England Patriots · Rushing · +2.68 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Smythe · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +2.42 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Tagovailoa · Miami Dolphins · Rushing · +2.10 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.05 EPA/play
7. 7 P. Laird · Miami Dolphins · Rushing · +1.92 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Byrd · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.29 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Miami Dolphins — S. Ahmed (Q3 25:36)
• Miami Dolphins — T. Tagovailoa (Q4 13:02)
• Miami Dolphins — T. Tagovailoa (Q4 3:20)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q2 38:55)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q2 34:20)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q3 19:24)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q4 9:08)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 6–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the MIA 27 (Q2 38:55) — (8:55) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the MIA 18 (Q2 34:20) — (4:20) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey..

The third quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 7–3. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q3 25:36) — (10:36) 70-J.Davenport and 94-C.Wilkins reported in as eligible. 26-S.Ahmed up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 25:32) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-50-B.Ferguson, Holder-2-M.Haack.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the MIA 27 (Q3 19:24) — (4:24) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey..

The fourth quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 15–3. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 3 (Q4 13:02) — (13:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins registered a safety from the NE 2 (Q4 12:55) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass to 26-S.Ahmed is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the MIA 24 (Q4 9:08) — (9:08) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q4 3:20) — (3:20) 70-J.Davenport and 94-C.Wilkins reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 3:17) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-50-B.Ferguson, Holder-2-M.Haack..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q3 24:58) — (9:58) (No Huddle) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 16-J.Meyers to NE 49 for 20 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-44-E.Roberts at NE 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumbl [WPA -11.8% · EPA -3.80]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-B.Ferguson, Holder-2-M.Haack. [WPA -11.1% · EPA -1.84]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 45:04) — (:04) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 15-L.Bowden INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson [50-C.Winovich] at NE -1. 27-J.Jackson to NE 4 for 5 yards (15-L.Bowden). [WPA -11.0% · EPA -4.61]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 30:11) — (:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 32-P.Laird pushed ob at NE 34 for 9 yards (41-M.Bryant). [WPA +9.7% · EPA +1.43]
• Miami Dolphins (Q3 15:44) — (:44) (Shotgun) 32-P.Laird right guard to NE 22 for 12 yards (21-A.Phillips). [WPA +9.6% · EPA +2.01]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Miami Dolphins (Q1 45:04) — (:04) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 15-L.Bowden INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson [50-C.Winovich] at NE -1. 27-J.Jackson to NE 4 for 5 yards (15-L.Bowden). [WPA -11.0% · EPA -4.61]
• New England Patriots (Q3 24:58) — (9:58) (No Huddle) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 16-J.Meyers to NE 49 for 20 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-44-E.Roberts at NE 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumbl [WPA -11.8% · EPA -3.80]
• New England Patriots (Q4 11:15) — (11:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 10-D.Byrd to MIA 47 for 23 yards (25-X.Howard). [WPA +8.4% · EPA +3.19]
• New England Patriots (Q4 1:16) — (1:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at MIA 32 for -9 yards (91-E.Ogbah). [WPA -3.4% · EPA -2.85]

Quarterback report card

C.Newton led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Newton (New England Patriots) · 35 dropbacks · 48.6% completion · +1.6% CPOE · -0.11 EPA/play · -3.92 total EPA
• T.Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) · 30 dropbacks · 66.7% completion · +6.8% CPOE · +0.01 EPA/play · +0.38 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Miami Dolphins held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.10 vs +0.03), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Miami Dolphins: 9 drives, +9.06 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 8 drives, +1.85 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Miami Dolphins leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. White (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Tagovailoa (MIA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 38:55 · MIA 27 · Score 3-0
   (8:55) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
2. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 34:20 · MIA 18 · Score 6-0
   (4:20) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
3. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q3 25:36 · NE 1 · Score 6-6
   (10:36) 70-J.Davenport and 94-C.Wilkins reported in as eligible. 26-S.Ahmed up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q3 25:32 · NE 15 · Score 6-7
   7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-50-B.Ferguson, Holder-2-M.Haack.
5. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 19:24 · MIA 27 · Score 9-7
   (4:24) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
6. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 13:02 · NE 3 · Score 9-13
   (13:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Miami Dolphins Safety (+2) — Q4 12:55 · NE 2 · Score 9-15
   (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass to 26-S.Ahmed is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
8. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 9:08 · MIA 24 · Score 12-15
   (9:08) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
9. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 3:20 · NE 1 · Score 12-21
   (3:20) 70-J.Davenport and 94-C.Wilkins reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 3:17 · NE 15 · Score 12-22
    7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-50-B.Ferguson, Holder-2-M.Haack.