New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2013 NFL season on 2013-12-15, the Miami Dolphins took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 24–20 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +13.04 total EPA, and -0.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +15.25 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-29.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle intended for 10-A.Collie INTERCEPTED by 31-M.Thomas at MIA -2. Touchback.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Tannehill · Miami Dolphins · Passing · +15.25 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +13.04 total EPA · 57 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +9.00 total EPA · 19 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Wallace · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +8.64 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Amendola · New England Patriots · Receiving · +6.90 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Thigpen · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +4.02 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.01 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Hoomanawanui · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.62 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.87 EPA/play
8. 8 B. Hartline · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +2.43 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — M. Hoomanawanui (T. Brady pass) (Q2 31:45)
• Miami Dolphins — M. Wallace (R. Tannehill pass) (Q2 30:40)
• Miami Dolphins — D. Thomas (R. Tannehill pass) (Q4 15:00)
• New England Patriots — J. Edelman (T. Brady pass) (Q4 4:14)
• Miami Dolphins — M. Thigpen (R. Tannehill pass) (Q4 1:21)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q1 48:57)
• Miami Dolphins — C. Sturgis (Q3 22:34)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 7:49)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the MIA 4 (Q1 48:57) — (3:57) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 13 (Q2 31:45) — (1:45) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 47-M.Hoomanawanui for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q2 31:38) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 39 (Q2 30:40) — (:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-M.Wallace for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 30:32) — 9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields..

The third quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 3–0. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the NE 14 (Q3 22:34) — (7:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Sturgis 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields..

The fourth quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 14–10. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 33-D.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 14:54) — 9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the MIA 5 (Q4 7:49) — (7:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 24 (Q4 4:14) — (4:14) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q4 4:07) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 14 (Q4 1:21) — (1:21) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 34-M.Thigpen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 1:15) — 9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 0:07) — (:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle intended for 10-A.Collie INTERCEPTED by 31-M.Thomas at MIA -2. Touchback. [WPA -29.8% · EPA -2.35]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 1:21) — (1:21) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 34-M.Thigpen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.1% · EPA +2.77]
• New England Patriots (Q4 0:31) — (:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to MIA 19 for 12 yards (20-R.Jones). [WPA +15.2% · EPA +0.82]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 2:41) — (2:41) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 42-C.Clay to NE 49 for 6 yards (28-S.Gregory). [WPA +14.3% · EPA +2.41]
• New England Patriots (Q4 4:14) — (4:14) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.0% · EPA +3.39]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Miami Dolphins (Q2 30:40) — (:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-M.Wallace for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.6% · EPA +4.97]
• New England Patriots (Q3 26:19) — (11:19) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen. [WPA -5.8% · EPA -3.74]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 33:39) — (3:39) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Fields FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 32, RECOVERED by NE-43-N.Ebner at NE 31. 43-N.Ebner to NE 31 for no gain (9-C.Sturgis). [WPA -12.6% · EPA -3.66]
• New England Patriots (Q2 31:45) — (1:45) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 47-M.Hoomanawanui for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.4% · EPA +3.62]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 57 dropbacks · 59.6% completion · -0.3% CPOE · +0.23 EPA/play · +13.04 total EPA
• R.Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) · 42 dropbacks · 59.5% completion · +7.5% CPOE · +0.36 EPA/play · +15.25 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (New England Patriots +0.13, Miami Dolphins +0.16) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Miami Dolphins: 10 drives, +13.14 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +12.02 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Miami Dolphins leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• R. Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Tannehill (MIA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 48:57 · MIA 4 · Score 3-0
   (3:57) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 31:45 · MIA 13 · Score 9-0
   (1:45) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 47-M.Hoomanawanui for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 31:38 · MIA 2 · Score 10-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
4. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 30:40 · NE 39 · Score 10-6
   (:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-M.Wallace for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 30:32 · NE 2 · Score 10-7
   9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
6. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q3 22:34 · NE 14 · Score 10-10
   (7:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Sturgis 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
7. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · NE 2 · Score 10-16
   (15:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 33-D.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 14:54 · NE 2 · Score 10-17
   9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
9. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 7:49 · MIA 5 · Score 13-17
   (7:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 4:14 · MIA 24 · Score 19-17
    (4:14) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 4:07 · MIA 2 · Score 20-17
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
12. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 1:21 · NE 14 · Score 20-23
    (1:21) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 34-M.Thigpen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 1:15 · NE 2 · Score 20-24
    9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.