New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2024 Week 7 Recap

Game story

In Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season on 2024-10-20, the Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 32–16 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 25 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Maye (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +8.19 total EPA, and +5.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.44 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+13.4% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Lawrence · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +14.44 total EPA · 23 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Thomas · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +11.25 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.87 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Maye · New England Patriots · Passing · +8.19 total EPA · 46 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Hasty · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.93 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.79 EPA/play
5. 5 H. Henry · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.07 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
6. 6 K. Osborn · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.42 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.81 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Bigsby · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +1.76 total EPA · 26 snaps · +0.07 EPA/play
8. 8 K. Boutte · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.60 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — J. Hasty (D. Maye pass) (Q1 53:40)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — B. Thomas (T. Lawrence pass) (Q2 39:25)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — T. Bigsby (Q2 33:35)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — P. Washington (Q2 31:55)
• New England Patriots — K. Osborn (D. Maye pass) (Q4 8:27)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — T. Bigsby (Q4 1:45)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — J. Slye (Q2 43:35)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Little (Q3 24:45)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the JAX 16 (Q1 53:40) — (8:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 39-J.Hasty for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 53:32) — 13-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer..

The second quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 22–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the JAX 22 (Q2 43:35) — (13:35) 13-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the NE 6 (Q2 39:25) — (9:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 39:21) — 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q2 33:35) — (3:35) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 33:32) — 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the JAX 70 (Q2 31:55) — (1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-P.Washington for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars registered a safety from the NE 1 (Q2 31:34) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 16-T.Lawrence pass to 7-B.Thomas is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

The third quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 3–0. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the NE 3 (Q3 24:45) — (9:45) 39-C.Little 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 13–6. New England Patriots found the end zone from the JAX 22 (Q4 8:27) — (8:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 2-K.Osborn for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the NE 4 (Q4 1:45) — (1:45) 4-T.Bigsby left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the NE 15 (Q4 1:41) — 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 36:31) — (6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez). [WPA +13.4% · EPA +4.21]
• New England Patriots (Q1 53:40) — (8:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 39-J.Hasty for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.9% · EPA +3.43]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 39:25) — (9:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.7% · EPA +3.07]
• New England Patriots (Q2 31:55) — (1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-P.Washington for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -9.2% · EPA -6.32]
• New England Patriots (Q1 57:58) — (12:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry to JAX 34 for 18 yards (5-A.Cisco; 33-D.Lloyd). [WPA +6.9% · EPA +1.65]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q2 31:55) — (1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-P.Washington for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -9.2% · EPA -6.32]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 36:31) — (6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez). [WPA +13.4% · EPA +4.21]
• New England Patriots (Q4 8:27) — (8:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 2-K.Osborn for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +4.8% · EPA +4.06]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 11:16) — (11:16) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to NE 6 for no gain (50-R.McMillan; 94-J.Roy). [WPA +0.1% · EPA -3.51]

Quarterback report card

D.Maye led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Maye (New England Patriots) · 46 dropbacks · 56.5% completion · +5.2% CPOE · +0.18 EPA/play · +8.19 total EPA
• T.Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 23 dropbacks · 65.2% completion · +4.6% CPOE · +0.63 EPA/play · +14.44 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Jacksonville Jaguars held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.23 vs -0.02), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 9 drives, +16.73 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 9 drives, -1.51 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Jacksonville Jaguars leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Maye (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Lawrence (JAX) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 53:40 · JAX 16 · Score 6-0
   (8:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 39-J.Hasty for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 53:32 · JAX 15 · Score 7-0
   13-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
3. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 43:35 · JAX 22 · Score 10-0
   (13:35) 13-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 39:25 · NE 6 · Score 10-6
   (9:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 39:21 · NE 15 · Score 10-7
   39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 33:35 · NE 1 · Score 10-13
   (3:35) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 33:32 · NE 15 · Score 10-14
   39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 31:55 · JAX 70 · Score 10-20
   (1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-P.Washington for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars Safety (+2) — Q2 31:34 · NE 1 · Score 10-22
   TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 16-T.Lawrence pass to 7-B.Thomas is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q3 24:45 · NE 3 · Score 10-25
    (9:45) 39-C.Little 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
11. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 8:27 · JAX 22 · Score 16-25
    (8:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 2-K.Osborn for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 1:45 · NE 4 · Score 16-31
    (1:45) 4-T.Bigsby left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+7) — Q4 1:41 · NE 15 · Score 16-32
    39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.