New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2006 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2006 NFL season on 2006-12-24, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 24–21 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +6.44 total EPA, and +5.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Thomas (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.99 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-31.1% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (1:55) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard sacked at JAX 44 for -1 yards (97-J.Green). FUMBLES (97-J.Green), RECOVERED by NE-37-R.Harrison at JAX 46. 37-R.Harrison to JAX 46 for no gain (11-R.Williams). Play Challe

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Thomas · New England Patriots · Receiving · +7.99 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.60 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Jones · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +6.89 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.72 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +6.44 total EPA · 45 snaps · +0.14 EPA/play
4. 4 L. Maroney · New England Patriots · Rushing · +5.65 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.71 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Garrard · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +5.06 total EPA · 28 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Gaffney · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.56 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.19 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Graham · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.13 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.04 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Brown · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.97 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.74 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones-Drew (Q2 43:12)
• New England Patriots — C. Dillon (Q2 31:21)
• New England Patriots — D. Thomas (T. Brady pass) (Q3 26:30)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones-Drew (Q3 18:12)
• New England Patriots — L. Maroney (Q4 4:42)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones (D. Garrard pass) (Q4 3:12)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 43:24)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–7. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the JAX 31 (Q2 43:24) — (13:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the NE 74 (Q2 43:12) — (13:12) 32-M.Jones-Drew up the middle for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by NE and Upheld. (Timeout #2 by NE at 12:59.); Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 42:59) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q2 31:21) — (1:21) 28-C.Dillon right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 31:17) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the JAX 22 (Q3 26:30); New England Patriots added 1 points from the JAX 7 (Q3 26:24) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q3 18:12) — (3:12) 32-M.Jones-Drew up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q3 18:06) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the JAX 27 (Q4 4:42) — (4:42) 39-L.Maroney left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q4 4:36) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the NE 33 (Q4 3:12) — (3:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short left to 18-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 3:03) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 1:55) — (1:55) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard sacked at JAX 44 for -1 yards (97-J.Green). FUMBLES (97-J.Green), RECOVERED by NE-37-R.Harrison at JAX 46. 37-R.Harrison to JAX 46 for no gain (11-R.Williams). Play Challe [WPA -31.1% · EPA -2.75]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 43:12) — (13:12) 32-M.Jones-Drew up the middle for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by NE and Upheld. (Timeout #2 by NE at 12:59.) [WPA +21.1% · EPA +5.47]
• New England Patriots (Q4 2:02) — (2:02) 18-T.Sauerbrun punts 42 yards to JAX 45, Center-66-L.Paxton, fair catch by 27-R.Mathis. [WPA -15.0% · EPA -0.41]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 3:12) — (3:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short left to 18-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.4% · EPA +3.73]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 19:00) — (4:00) 9-D.Garrard pass deep left to 19-E.Wilford to NE 2 for 41 yards (22-A.Samuel). [WPA +12.1% · EPA +3.09]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 43:12) — (13:12) 32-M.Jones-Drew up the middle for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by NE and Upheld. (Timeout #2 by NE at 12:59.) [WPA +21.1% · EPA +5.47]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 3:12) — (3:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short left to 18-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.4% · EPA +3.73]
• New England Patriots (Q3 19:48) — (4:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel. [WPA -4.7% · EPA -3.52]
• New England Patriots (Q3 26:30) — (11:30) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 86-D.Thomas for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by JAX and Upheld. (Timeout #1 by JAX at 11:24.) [WPA +9.2% · EPA +3.45]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 45 dropbacks · 62.2% completion · +5.4% CPOE · +0.14 EPA/play · +6.44 total EPA
• D.Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 28 dropbacks · 60.7% completion · +9.1% CPOE · +0.18 EPA/play · +5.06 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (New England Patriots +0.09, Jacksonville Jaguars +0.07) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 11 drives, +4.66 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 12 drives, +8.47 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Thomas (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Garrard (JAX) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 43:24 · JAX 31 · Score 3-0
   (13:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 43:12 · NE 74 · Score 3-6
   (13:12) 32-M.Jones-Drew up the middle for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by NE and Upheld. (Timeout #2 by NE at 12:59.)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 42:59 · NE 2 · Score 3-7
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 31:21 · JAX 1 · Score 9-7
   (1:21) 28-C.Dillon right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 31:17 · JAX 2 · Score 10-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
6. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 26:30 · JAX 22 · Score 16-7
   (11:30) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 86-D.Thomas for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by JAX and Upheld. (Timeout #1 by JAX at 11:24.)
7. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 26:24 · JAX 7 · Score 17-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 18:12 · NE 1 · Score 17-13
   (3:12) 32-M.Jones-Drew up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 18:06 · NE 2 · Score 17-14
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 4:42 · JAX 27 · Score 23-14
    (4:42) 39-L.Maroney left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 4:36 · JAX 2 · Score 24-14
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 3:12 · NE 33 · Score 24-20
    (3:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short left to 18-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 3:03 · NE 2 · Score 24-21
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.