New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on 2022-10-02, the Green Bay Packers took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 27–24 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) paced the passing game, with -3.31 total EPA, and +0.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Jones (Green Bay Packers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +3.93 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+28.2% win probability) landed in overtime when New England Patriots changed the game: (6:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to GB 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Jones · Green Bay Packers · Rushing · +3.93 total EPA · 17 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Stevenson · New England Patriots · Rushing · +3.68 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Harris · New England Patriots · Rushing · +3.32 total EPA · 18 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Tonyan · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.10 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.55 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Cobb · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.03 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.76 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Parker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.22 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.11 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Watson · Green Bay Packers · Rushing · +2.01 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.01 EPA/play
8. 8 N. Agholor · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.39 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Green Bay Packers — C. Watson (Q2 43:05)
• New England Patriots — A. Rodgers (Q2 30:22)
• Green Bay Packers — R. Tonyan (A. Rodgers pass) (Q3 24:24)
• New England Patriots — D. Parker (B. Zappe pass) (Q3 19:59)
• New England Patriots — D. Harris (Q4 11:19)
• Green Bay Packers — R. Doubs (A. Rodgers pass) (Q4 6:17)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q1 54:49)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q3 15:09)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q3 15:05)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (OT 0:04)
• Green Bay Packers — unlisted player (OT 0:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the GB 19 (Q1 54:49) — (9:49) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the NE 15 (Q2 43:05) — (13:05) 9-C.Watson right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 43:00) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the NE 68 (Q2 30:22); New England Patriots added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q2 30:13) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey..

The third quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 13–7. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the NE 20 (Q3 24:24) — (9:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 85-R.Tonyan for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 24:20) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the GB 25 (Q3 19:59) — (4:59) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 1-D.Parker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q3 19:52) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the NE 20 (Q3 15:09) — (:09) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the GB 35 (Q3 15:05) — 2-M.Crosby kicks 68 yards from GB 35 to NE -3. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 34 for 37 yards (7-Q.Walker)..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the GB 5 (Q4 11:19) — (11:19) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q4 11:14) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the NE 13 (Q4 6:17) — (6:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 6:14) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell..

Overtime: Green Bay Packers won the period 6–0. Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the NE 13 (OT 0:04) — (:04) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal (OT 0:00) — END GAME.

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (OT 6:54) — (6:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to GB 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers. [WPA +28.2% · EPA -0.48]
• Green Bay Packers (Q2 30:22) — (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 13-Ja.Jones at GB 40. 13-Ja.Jones for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -23.8% · EPA -7.20]
• New England Patriots (Q2 31:04) — (1:04) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at GB 31 for -9 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at GB 31. [WPA -18.0% · EPA -4.70]
• New England Patriots (OT 7:00) — (7:00) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 85-H.Henry. [WPA -17.2% · EPA -1.43]
• New England Patriots (Q4 11:19) — (11:19) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.3% · EPA +1.78]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Green Bay Packers (Q2 30:22) — (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 13-Ja.Jones at GB 40. 13-Ja.Jones for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -23.8% · EPA -7.20]
• Green Bay Packers (Q1 53:59) — (8:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to 50 for 1 yard (21-A.Phillips, 13-Ja.Jones). FUMBLES (13-Ja.Jones), touched at NE 49, RECOVERED by NE-13-Ja.Jones at GB 49. [WPA -14.5% · EPA -5.47]
• New England Patriots (Q2 31:04) — (1:04) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at GB 31 for -9 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at GB 31. [WPA -18.0% · EPA -4.70]
• Green Bay Packers (Q3 29:48) — (14:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard to NE 49 for 32 yards (31-Jo.Jones). [WPA +9.1% · EPA +3.55]

Quarterback report card

A.Rodgers led all passers in efficiency for Green Bay Packers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) · 38 dropbacks · 55.3% completion · +0.5% CPOE · -0.09 EPA/play · -3.31 total EPA
• B.Zappe (New England Patriots) · 18 dropbacks · 55.6% completion · +1.1% CPOE · -0.26 EPA/play · -4.76 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (New England Patriots -0.03, Green Bay Packers -0.01) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Green Bay Packers: 14 drives, -1.22 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 12 drives, -1.91 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Green Bay Packers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Jones (Green Bay Packers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 54:49 · GB 19 · Score 3-0
   (9:49) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
2. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 43:05 · NE 15 · Score 3-6
   (13:05) 9-C.Watson right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 43:00 · NE 15 · Score 3-7
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 30:22 · NE 68 · Score 9-7
   (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 13-Ja.Jones at GB 40. 13-Ja.Jones for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 30:13 · GB 15 · Score 10-7
   6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
6. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q3 24:24 · NE 20 · Score 10-13
   (9:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 85-R.Tonyan for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q3 24:20 · NE 15 · Score 10-14
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
8. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 19:59 · GB 25 · Score 16-14
   (4:59) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 1-D.Parker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 19:52 · GB 15 · Score 17-14
   6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
10. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q3 15:09 · NE 20 · Score 17-17
    (:09) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
11. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q3 15:05 · GB 35 · Score 17-17
    2-M.Crosby kicks 68 yards from GB 35 to NE -3. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 34 for 37 yards (7-Q.Walker).
12. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 11:19 · GB 5 · Score 23-17
    (11:19) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 11:14 · GB 15 · Score 24-17
    6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
14. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 6:17 · NE 13 · Score 24-23
    (6:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q4 6:14 · NE 15 · Score 24-24
    2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
16. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — OT 0:04 · NE 13 · Score 24-27
    (:04) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
17. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — OT 0:00 · Score 24-27
    END GAME