New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-12-18, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 16–3 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 7 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Siemian (Denver Broncos) paced the passing game, with -16.37 total EPA, and -0.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Edelman (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +4.96 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-18.7% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Denver Broncos changed the game: (15:00) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left intended for 10-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan at NE 8. 26-L.Ryan to DEN 46 for 46 yards (88-D.Thomas).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.96 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Lewis · New England Patriots · Rushing · +2.75 total EPA · 18 snaps · +0.15 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Taylor · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.43 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.43 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Heuerman · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.09 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Develin · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.42 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.42 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Mitchell · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.20 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.20 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +0.30 total EPA · 35 snaps · +0.01 EPA/play
8. 8 V. Green · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +0.08 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.04 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q2 41:05)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q1 57:32)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q1 52:02)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 20:32)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 8:19)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the DEN 27 (Q1 57:32) — (12:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the NE 15 (Q1 52:02) — (7:02) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 1 (Q2 41:05) — (11:05) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q2 41:01) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the DEN 22 (Q3 20:32) — (5:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the DEN 3 (Q4 8:19) — (8:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Denver Broncos (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left intended for 10-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan at NE 8. 26-L.Ryan to DEN 46 for 46 yards (88-D.Thomas). [WPA -18.7% · EPA -6.94]
• New England Patriots (Q1 58:30) — (13:30) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to DEN 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-31-J.Jones at DEN 31. 31-J.Jones to DEN 31 for no gain (11-J.Norwood). [WPA +16.0% · EPA +5.28]
• New England Patriots (Q2 44:05) — (14:05) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at DEN 33 for 17 yards (52-C.Nelson). [WPA +8.3% · EPA +2.08]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 11:34) — (11:34) 13-T.Siemian sacked at DEN 7 for -14 yards (90-M.Brown). [WPA -7.6% · EPA -3.17]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 37:10) — (7:10) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left to 87-J.Taylor pushed ob at NE 33 for 15 yards (25-E.Rowe). [WPA +7.5% · EPA +2.43]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left intended for 10-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan at NE 8. 26-L.Ryan to DEN 46 for 46 yards (88-D.Thomas). [WPA -18.7% · EPA -6.94]
• New England Patriots (Q1 58:30) — (13:30) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to DEN 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-31-J.Jones at DEN 31. 31-J.Jones to DEN 31 for no gain (11-J.Norwood). [WPA +16.0% · EPA +5.28]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 6:04) — (6:04) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Thomas (32-D.McCourty). [WPA -3.3% · EPA -3.19]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 11:34) — (11:34) 13-T.Siemian sacked at DEN 7 for -14 yards (90-M.Brown). [WPA -7.6% · EPA -3.17]

Quarterback report card

T.Siemian led all passers in efficiency for Denver Broncos, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Siemian (Denver Broncos) · 45 dropbacks · 55.6% completion · -0.5% CPOE · -0.36 EPA/play · -16.37 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 35 dropbacks · 45.7% completion · -12.2% CPOE · +0.01 EPA/play · +0.30 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.01 vs -0.22), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Denver Broncos: 12 drives, -17.23 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 13 drives, +1.16 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Edelman (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 57:32 · DEN 27 · Score 3-0
   (12:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
2. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 52:02 · NE 15 · Score 3-3
   (7:02) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 41:05 · DEN 1 · Score 9-3
   (11:05) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 41:01 · DEN 15 · Score 10-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
5. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 20:32 · DEN 22 · Score 13-3
   (5:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
6. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 8:19 · DEN 3 · Score 16-3
   (8:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.