New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos: 2011 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-12-18, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 41–23 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 23 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +20.13 total EPA, and +7.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +20.13 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-22.3% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Denver Broncos changed the game: (5:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to DEN 46 for no gain (95-M.Anderson). FUMBLES (95-M.Anderson), touched at DEN 42, RECOVERED by NE-95-M.Anderson at DEN 40. 95-M.Anderson to DEN 40 for no gai

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +20.13 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Hernandez · New England Patriots · Receiving · +12.90 total EPA · 11 snaps · +1.17 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Thomas · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +6.35 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Woodhead · New England Patriots · Rushing · +3.15 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Tebow · Denver Broncos · Passing · +2.98 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
6. 6 W. McGahee · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +2.59 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Ochocinco · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.54 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.85 EPA/play
8. 8 L. Ball · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.51 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Denver Broncos — T. Tebow (Q1 54:56)
• New England Patriots — C. Ochocinco (T. Brady pass) (Q1 52:30)
• Denver Broncos — L. Ball (Q1 50:10)
• New England Patriots — A. Hernandez (T. Brady pass) (Q2 38:48)
• New England Patriots — T. Brady (Q2 31:17)
• New England Patriots — D. Woodhead (Q3 15:45)
• Denver Broncos — T. Tebow (Q4 8:46)
• New England Patriots — B. Green-Ellis (Q4 4:14)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — M. Prater (Q2 43:50)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 35:52)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 30:03)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 13–7. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the NE 9 (Q1 54:56) — (9:56) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 33 (Q1 52:30); New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q1 52:24) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the NE 32 (Q1 50:10); Denver Broncos added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 50:01) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 20–3. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the NE 8 (Q2 43:50) — (13:50) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 1 (Q2 38:48) — (8:48) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-A.Hernandez for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 38:43) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the DEN 3 (Q2 35:52) — (5:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 1 (Q2 31:17); New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 31:12) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the DEN 16 (Q2 30:03) — (:03) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 10 (Q3 15:45) — (:45) 39-D.Woodhead up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q3 15:39) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q4 8:46) — (8:46) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 8:41) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 1 (Q4 4:14) — (4:14) 42-B.Green-Ellis left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q4 4:10) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Denver Broncos (Q2 35:18) — (5:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to DEN 46 for no gain (95-M.Anderson). FUMBLES (95-M.Anderson), touched at DEN 42, RECOVERED by NE-95-M.Anderson at DEN 40. 95-M.Anderson to DEN 40 for no gai [WPA -22.3% · EPA -5.12]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 38:37) — (8:37) 35-L.Ball right guard to DEN 25 for 2 yards (97-R.Brace). FUMBLES (97-R.Brace), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.Ninkovich at DEN 19. 50-R.Ninkovich to DEN 19 for no gain (86-D.Fells). [WPA -21.2% · EPA -5.32]
• New England Patriots (Q1 54:04) — (9:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-A.Hernandez to DEN 33 for 46 yards (25-C.Harris). [WPA +10.4% · EPA +4.54]
• New England Patriots (Q2 32:16) — (2:16) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 81-A.Hernandez to DEN 6 for 25 yards (52-W.Woodyard). [WPA +10.0% · EPA +3.32]
• New England Patriots (Q1 52:30) — (7:30) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 85-C.Ochocinco for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-92-E.Dumervil, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. [WPA +8.8% · EPA +3.92]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q2 38:37) — (8:37) 35-L.Ball right guard to DEN 25 for 2 yards (97-R.Brace). FUMBLES (97-R.Brace), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.Ninkovich at DEN 19. 50-R.Ninkovich to DEN 19 for no gain (86-D.Fells). [WPA -21.2% · EPA -5.32]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 35:18) — (5:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to DEN 46 for no gain (95-M.Anderson). FUMBLES (95-M.Anderson), touched at DEN 42, RECOVERED by NE-95-M.Anderson at DEN 40. 95-M.Anderson to DEN 40 for no gai [WPA -22.3% · EPA -5.12]
• New England Patriots (Q1 54:04) — (9:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-A.Hernandez to DEN 33 for 46 yards (25-C.Harris). [WPA +10.4% · EPA +4.54]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 9:39) — (9:39) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass deep right to 88-D.Thomas pushed ob at NE 36 for 39 yards (31-S.Brown). [WPA +0.9% · EPA +3.96]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 38 dropbacks · 60.5% completion · +7.3% CPOE · +0.53 EPA/play · +20.13 total EPA
• T.Tebow (Denver Broncos) · 31 dropbacks · 35.5% completion · -6.7% CPOE · +0.10 EPA/play · +2.98 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.26 vs +0.03), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Denver Broncos: 11 drives, +2.58 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 13 drives, +24.65 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Tebow (DEN) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 54:56 · NE 9 · Score 0-6
   (9:56) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 52:30 · DEN 33 · Score 6-6
   (7:30) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 85-C.Ochocinco for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-92-E.Dumervil, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
3. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 52:24 · DEN 2 · Score 7-6
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
4. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 50:10 · NE 32 · Score 7-12
   (5:10) 35-L.Ball right tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld.
5. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 50:01 · NE 2 · Score 7-13
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
6. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q2 43:50 · NE 8 · Score 7-16
   (13:50) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 38:48 · DEN 1 · Score 13-16
   (8:48) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-A.Hernandez for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 38:43 · DEN 2 · Score 14-16
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
9. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 35:52 · DEN 3 · Score 17-16
   (5:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 31:17 · DEN 1 · Score 23-16
    (1:17) 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld.
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 31:12 · DEN 2 · Score 24-16
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
12. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 30:03 · DEN 16 · Score 27-16
    (:03) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
13. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 15:45 · DEN 10 · Score 33-16
    (:45) 39-D.Woodhead up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 15:39 · DEN 2 · Score 34-16
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
15. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 8:46 · NE 2 · Score 34-22
    (8:46) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 8:41 · NE 2 · Score 34-23
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
17. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 4:14 · DEN 1 · Score 40-23
    (4:14) 42-B.Green-Ellis left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
18. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 4:10 · DEN 2 · Score 41-23
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.