New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 13 Recap

Game story

In Week 13 of the 2017 NFL season on 2017-12-03, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 23–3 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +11.44 total EPA, and +5.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Gronkowski (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.94 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-48.5% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: End of half - 2.20 pm

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +11.94 total EPA · 11 snaps · +1.09 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +11.44 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Burkhead · New England Patriots · Rushing · +4.85 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.40 EPA/play
4. 4 L. McCoy · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +2.84 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Amendola · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.41 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Burkhead · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.59 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.40 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Webb · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.46 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Lewis · New England Patriots · Rushing · +1.27 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.08 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — R. Burkhead (Q3 24:05)
• New England Patriots — R. Burkhead (Q3 16:16)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q1 46:35)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 36:30)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q2 33:11)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 30:19)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 32 (Q1 46:35) — (1:35) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 6–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 13 (Q2 36:30) — (6:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 30 (Q2 33:11) — (3:11) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 20 (Q2 30:19) — (:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q3 24:05) — (9:05) 34-R.Burkhead left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 24:02) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 14 (Q3 16:16); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 16:08) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2) — End of half - 2.20 pm [WPA -48.5% · EPA -1.30]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:10) — (:10) (Shotgun) 39-T.Cadet up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (70-A.Butler, 55-E.Lee). [WPA +47.3% · EPA +0.58]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 52:58) — (7:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right intended for 25-L.McCoy INTERCEPTED by 55-E.Lee [97-A.Branch] at NE 1. 55-E.Lee to NE 9 for 8 yards (79-J.Mills). [WPA -15.5% · EPA -5.27]
• New England Patriots (Q1 48:18) — (3:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at BUF 31 for 27 yards (23-M.Hyde). Caught along sideline at BUF 31. [WPA +9.5% · EPA +2.83]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 45:06) — (:06) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles right end pushed ob at BUF 38 for 18 yards (53-K.Van Noy). [WPA +8.7% · EPA +2.70]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q1 52:58) — (7:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right intended for 25-L.McCoy INTERCEPTED by 55-E.Lee [97-A.Branch] at NE 1. 55-E.Lee to NE 9 for 8 yards (79-J.Mills). [WPA -15.5% · EPA -5.27]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:05) — (1:05) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass incomplete short middle to 11-Z.Jones (25-E.Rowe) [91-D.Wise]. Receiver and coverage at BUF 28. [WPA -0.0% · EPA -3.65]
• New England Patriots (Q4 0:36) — (:36) 2-B.Hoyer kneels to BUF 21 for -1 yards. [EPA -3.35]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 21:11) — (6:11) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor sacked at BUF 18 for -20 yards (sack split by 53-K.Van Noy and 45-D.Harris). Penalty on BUF-62-V.Ducasse, Offensive Holding, declined. [WPA -5.4% · EPA -3.21]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 34 dropbacks · 61.8% completion · +5.3% CPOE · +0.34 EPA/play · +11.44 total EPA
• T.Taylor (Buffalo Bills) · 26 dropbacks · 34.6% completion · -14.2% CPOE · -0.40 EPA/play · -10.51 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.12 vs -0.19), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, -15.79 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +10.22 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• R. Gronkowski (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Taylor (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 46:35 · BUF 32 · Score 3-0
   (1:35) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
2. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 36:30 · BUF 13 · Score 6-0
   (6:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 33:11 · NE 30 · Score 6-3
   (3:11) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
4. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 30:19 · BUF 20 · Score 9-3
   (:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 24:05 · BUF 1 · Score 15-3
   (9:05) 34-R.Burkhead left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 24:02 · BUF 15 · Score 16-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 16:16 · BUF 14 · Score 22-3
   (1:16) 34-R.Burkhead up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 16:08 · BUF 15 · Score 23-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.