New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: 2012 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2012 NFL season on 2012-09-30, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 52–28 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 38 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +6.53 total EPA, and -2.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.75 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+16.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (15:00) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 10.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +14.75 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Bolden · New England Patriots · Rushing · +7.53 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Smith · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +6.74 total EPA · 2 snaps · +3.37 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Jones · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +6.55 total EPA · 3 snaps · +2.18 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Fitzpatrick · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +6.53 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.15 EPA/play
6. 6 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.11 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play
7. 7 F. Jackson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.82 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.61 EPA/play
8. 8 B. Lloyd · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.35 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.62 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — S. Ridley (Q1 51:52)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Chandler (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q2 39:51)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Chandler (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q2 33:35)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Jones (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q3 26:18)
• New England Patriots — D. Woodhead (T. Brady pass) (Q3 23:18)
• New England Patriots — T. Brady (Q3 18:59)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q4 15:00)
• New England Patriots — S. Ridley (Q4 11:46)
• New England Patriots — B. Bolden (Q4 10:34)
• Buffalo Bills — B. Smith (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q4 6:39)
• New England Patriots — B. Lloyd (T. Brady pass) (Q4 4:09)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 2:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 6 (Q1 51:52) — (6:52) 22-S.Ridley left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 51:49) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 24 (Q2 39:51) — (9:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 84-S.Chandler for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in coverage in front corner of end zone.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 39:43) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-4-T.Thigpen.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 20 (Q2 33:35) — (3:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 84-S.Chandler for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 33:30) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-4-T.Thigpen..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 68 (Q3 26:18) — (11:18) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 19-D.Jones for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 39, crossing from right.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q3 26:08) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-4-T.Thigpen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 17 (Q3 23:18); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 23:10) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 4 (Q3 18:59); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 18:53) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 31–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 28 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 10.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 14:55) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 2 (Q4 11:46) — (11:46) 22-S.Ridley left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-27-S.Gilmore, Defensive 12 On-field, declined.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 11:42) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 7 (Q4 10:34) — (10:34) 38-B.Bolden left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 10:29) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 35 (Q4 6:39) — (6:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 16-B.Smith for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at NE 10.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 6:32) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-4-T.Thigpen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 25 (Q4 4:09); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 4:02) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 12 (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 10. [WPA +16.8% · EPA +3.20]
• New England Patriots (Q2 35:46) — (5:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko. [WPA -12.3% · EPA -3.59]
• New England Patriots (Q1 53:57) — (8:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski to BUF 26 for 41 yards (26-J.Rogers). Caught at BUF 32, slanting to sideline. [WPA +11.9% · EPA +3.20]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 31:19) — (1:19) (Shotgun) 28-C.Spiller up the middle to NE 1 for 3 yards (55-B.Spikes). FUMBLES (55-B.Spikes), RECOVERED by NE-75-V.Wilfork at NE 2. 75-V.Wilfork to NE 4 for 2 yards (14-R.Fitzpatrick). [WPA -11.8% · EPA -5.01]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 39:51) — (9:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 84-S.Chandler for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in coverage in front corner of end zone. [WPA +11.5% · EPA +2.67]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 26:18) — (11:18) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 19-D.Jones for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 39, crossing from right. [WPA +9.7% · EPA +5.57]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 31:19) — (1:19) (Shotgun) 28-C.Spiller up the middle to NE 1 for 3 yards (55-B.Spikes). FUMBLES (55-B.Spikes), RECOVERED by NE-75-V.Wilfork at NE 2. 75-V.Wilfork to NE 4 for 2 yards (14-R.Fitzpatrick). [WPA -11.8% · EPA -5.01]
• New England Patriots (Q4 4:09) — (4:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 85-B.Lloyd for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. Penalty on BUF-26-J.Rogers, Defensive Holding, declined. [WPA +0.2% · EPA +4.84]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 6:39) — (6:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 16-B.Smith for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at NE 10. [WPA +0.4% · EPA +4.74]

Quarterback report card

R.Fitzpatrick led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 44 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -2.0% CPOE · +0.15 EPA/play · +6.53 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 38 dropbacks · 57.9% completion · -0.5% CPOE · +0.39 EPA/play · +14.75 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.22 vs -0.08), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 16 drives, -7.26 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 16 drives, +21.81 total EPA, 8 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 51:52 · BUF 6 · Score 6-0
   (6:52) 22-S.Ridley left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 51:49 · BUF 2 · Score 7-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 39:51 · NE 24 · Score 7-6
   (9:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 84-S.Chandler for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in coverage in front corner of end zone.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 39:43 · NE 2 · Score 7-7
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-4-T.Thigpen.
5. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 33:35 · NE 20 · Score 7-13
   (3:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 84-S.Chandler for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line.
6. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 33:30 · NE 2 · Score 7-14
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-4-T.Thigpen.
7. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 26:18 · NE 68 · Score 7-20
   (11:18) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 19-D.Jones for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 39, crossing from right.
8. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 26:08 · NE 2 · Score 7-21
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-4-T.Thigpen.
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 23:18 · BUF 17 · Score 13-21
   (8:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 39-D.Woodhead for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 10, slanted toward middle after catch.
10. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 23:10 · BUF 2 · Score 14-21
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
11. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 18:59 · BUF 4 · Score 20-21
    (3:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the
12. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 18:53 · BUF 2 · Score 21-21
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
13. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · BUF 28 · Score 27-21
    (15:00) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 10.
14. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 14:55 · BUF 2 · Score 28-21
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
15. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 11:46 · BUF 2 · Score 34-21
    (11:46) 22-S.Ridley left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-27-S.Gilmore, Defensive 12 On-field, declined.
16. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 11:42 · BUF 2 · Score 35-21
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
17. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 10:34 · BUF 7 · Score 41-21
    (10:34) 38-B.Bolden left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 10:29 · BUF 2 · Score 42-21
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
19. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 6:39 · NE 35 · Score 42-27
    (6:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 16-B.Smith for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at NE 10.
20. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 6:32 · NE 2 · Score 42-28
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-4-T.Thigpen.
21. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 4:09 · BUF 25 · Score 48-28
    (4:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 85-B.Lloyd for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. Penalty on BUF-26-J.Rogers, Defensive Hol
22. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 4:02 · BUF 2 · Score 49-28
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
23. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 2:00 · BUF 12 · Score 52-28
    (2:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.