New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: 2011 Week 3 Recap

Game story

In Week 3 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-09-25, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 34–31 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +12.06 total EPA, and +9.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, W. Welker (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +25.49 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-64.8% win probability) landed in the second quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: 9-R.Lindell kicks 37 yards from BUF 35 to NE 28. 50-R.Ninkovich to NE 38 for 10 yards (51-C.White).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +25.49 total EPA · 20 snaps · +1.27 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +12.06 total EPA · 47 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Fitzpatrick · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +9.96 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
4. 4 St. Johnson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +7.06 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.71 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +6.55 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.73 EPA/play
6. 6 F. Jackson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.23 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.71 EPA/play
7. 7 S. Ridley · New England Patriots · Rushing · +2.19 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Nelson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.15 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — W. Welker (T. Brady pass) (Q1 54:50)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q1 51:05)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q2 36:06)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Fitzpatrick (Q2 32:00)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Chandler (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q3 24:37)
• Buffalo Bills — F. Jackson (Q4 10:39)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Florence (Q4 10:32)
• New England Patriots — W. Welker (T. Brady pass) (Q4 3:33)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 30:08)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 19:53)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q4 0:03)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 14 (Q1 54:50) — (9:50) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 9.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 54:45) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q1 51:05) — (6:05) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 7 yds. into end zone, crossing to right.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 51:01) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 26 (Q2 36:06) — (6:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 36:01) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 11 (Q2 32:00); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 31:56) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 24 (Q2 30:08) — (:08) 9-R.Lindell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 3 (Q3 24:37) — (9:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 84-S.Chandler for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 1 yd. into end zone.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q3 24:34) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 5 (Q3 19:53) — (4:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 17–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q4 10:39) — (10:39) 22-F.Jackson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 10:36) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 80 (Q4 10:32); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 10:22) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 6 (Q4 3:33) — (3:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Williams]. Caught at BUF 1, slanting from middle.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 3:25) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 10 (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 9-R.Lindell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q2 30:03) — 9-R.Lindell kicks 37 yards from BUF 35 to NE 28. 50-R.Ninkovich to NE 38 for 10 yards (51-C.White). [WPA -64.8% · EPA +0.84]
• New England Patriots (Q2) — End of half - 2:31 pm [WPA +60.9% · EPA -1.63]
• New England Patriots (Q4 10:32) — (10:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Florence (99-M.Dareus) at NE 27. 29-D.Florence for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass tipped at line before INT. [WPA -29.4% · EPA -7.54]
• New England Patriots (Q4 3:33) — (3:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Williams]. Caught at BUF 1, slanting from middle. [WPA +19.0% · EPA +4.27]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 10:50) — (10:50) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right intended for 86-D.Nelson INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Barrett at NE -3. Touchback. PENALTY on NE-31-S.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at NE 32 - [WPA +15.1% · EPA +2.64]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q4 10:32) — (10:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Florence (99-M.Dareus) at NE 27. 29-D.Florence for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass tipped at line before INT. [WPA -29.4% · EPA -7.54]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 53:58) — (8:58) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 19-D.Jones INTERCEPTED by 24-K.Arrington at NE 38. 24-K.Arrington to BUF 35 for 27 yards (14-R.Fitzpatrick). Thrown between receiver's h [WPA -14.7% · EPA -6.36]
• New England Patriots (Q3 28:27) — (13:27) 12-T.Brady pass deep right intended for 85-C.Ochocinco INTERCEPTED by 21-L.McKelvin at BUF 40. 21-L.McKelvin pushed ob at NE 39 for 21 yards (87-R.Gronkowski). [WPA -12.0% · EPA -5.25]
• New England Patriots (Q2 31:09) — (1:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 39-D.Woodhead INTERCEPTED by 43-B.Scott at BUF 10. 43-B.Scott pushed ob at BUF 10 for no gain (39-D.Woodhead). Coverage along sideline. [WPA -7.6% · EPA -4.63]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 47 dropbacks · 63.8% completion · +9.0% CPOE · +0.26 EPA/play · +12.06 total EPA
• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 44 dropbacks · 61.4% completion · +8.7% CPOE · +0.23 EPA/play · +9.96 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (New England Patriots +0.08, Buffalo Bills +0.10) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 13 drives, +8.23 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 13 drives, +7.10 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• W. Welker (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• R. Fitzpatrick (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 54:50 · BUF 14 · Score 6-0
   (9:50) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 9.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 54:45 · BUF 2 · Score 7-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 51:05 · BUF 1 · Score 13-0
   (6:05) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 7 yds. into end zone, crossing to right.
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 51:01 · BUF 2 · Score 14-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 36:06 · BUF 26 · Score 20-0
   (6:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line.
6. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 36:01 · BUF 2 · Score 21-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
7. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 32:00 · NE 11 · Score 21-6
   (2:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 13-St.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Fade pattern, caught along sideline 5 yds. into end zone.
8. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 31:56 · NE 2 · Score 21-7
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
9. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:08 · NE 24 · Score 21-10
   (:08) 9-R.Lindell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
10. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 24:37 · NE 3 · Score 21-16
    (9:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 84-S.Chandler for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 1 yd. into end zone.
11. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 24:34 · NE 2 · Score 21-17
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
12. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 19:53 · BUF 5 · Score 24-17
    (4:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
13. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 10:39 · NE 1 · Score 24-23
    (10:39) 22-F.Jackson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 10:36 · NE 2 · Score 24-24
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
15. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 10:32 · BUF 80 · Score 24-30
    (10:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Florence (99-M.Dareus) at NE 27. 29-D.Florence for 27 yards, TOUCHDOW
16. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 10:22 · NE 2 · Score 24-31
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
17. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 3:33 · BUF 6 · Score 30-31
    (3:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Williams]. Caught at BUF 1, slanting from middle.
18. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 3:25 · BUF 2 · Score 31-31
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
19. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 0:03 · NE 10 · Score 31-34
    (:03) 9-R.Lindell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.