New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: 2010 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2010 NFL season on 2010-12-26, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 34–3 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with -23.61 total EPA, and -4.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, B. Green-Ellis (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +6.90 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-89.3% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: End of half - 2:30 pm

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 B. Green-Ellis · New England Patriots · Rushing · +6.90 total EPA · 19 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +6.02 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.86 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Woodhead · New England Patriots · Rushing · +4.54 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
4. 4 C. Spiller · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.37 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.12 EPA/play
5. 5 F. Jackson · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +2.25 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Crumpler · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.56 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.56 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Rushing · +0.82 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.82 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Branch · New England Patriots · Receiving · +0.76 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.15 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — D. Woodhead (Q1 48:52)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q2 42:32)
• New England Patriots — A. Crumpler (T. Brady pass) (Q2 30:38)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q3 26:34)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q1 55:12)
• New England Patriots — S. Graham (Q2 34:01)
• New England Patriots — S. Graham (Q4 10:19)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 8 (Q1 55:12) — (10:12) 9-R.Lindell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 29 (Q1 48:52) — (3:52) (Shotgun) 39-D.Woodhead up the middle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 48:46) — 5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 17–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 8 (Q2 42:32) — (12:32) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 6.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 42:27) — 5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 16 (Q2 34:01) — (4:01) 5-S.Graham 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 4 (Q2 30:38) — (:38) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 82-A.Crumpler for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 7 yds. into end zone, crossing from middle.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 30:33).

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 8 (Q3 26:34) — (11:34) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 4 yds. into end zone, crossing from left.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 26:27) — 5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 8 (Q4 10:19) — (10:19) 5-S.Graham 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2) — End of half - 2:30 pm [WPA -89.3% · EPA -0.02]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:11) — (:11) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 22-F.Jackson to BUF 45 for 3 yards (98-E.Moore) [95-T.Banta-Cain]. Shovel pass, caught in flat at BUF 42. [WPA +88.5% · EPA -0.32]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 47:01) — (2:01) 14-R.Fitzpatrick sacked at NE 20 for -3 yards (59-G.Guyton). FUMBLES (59-G.Guyton), RECOVERED by NE-51-J.Mayo at NE 20. 51-J.Mayo to NE 20 for no gain (38-C.McIntyre). [WPA -17.9% · EPA -4.96]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 48:40) — (3:40) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 21-C.Spiller pushed ob at NE 28 for 41 yards (27-K.Arrington). Caught along sideline at NE 35. [WPA +11.6% · EPA +2.54]
• New England Patriots (Q1 48:52) — (3:52) (Shotgun) 39-D.Woodhead up the middle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.7% · EPA +3.25]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 3:37) — (3:37) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle intended for 19-D.Jones INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Fletcher (59-G.Guyton) at NE -3. Touchback. Pass tipped at goal line before INT. [WPA -0.0% · EPA -5.77]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 47:01) — (2:01) 14-R.Fitzpatrick sacked at NE 20 for -3 yards (59-G.Guyton). FUMBLES (59-G.Guyton), RECOVERED by NE-51-J.Mayo at NE 20. 51-J.Mayo to NE 20 for no gain (38-C.McIntyre). [WPA -17.9% · EPA -4.96]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 23:07) — (8:07) 21-C.Spiller left tackle to BUF 36 for 5 yards (51-J.Mayo, 98-E.Moore). New England challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 21-C.Spiller left tackle to BUF [WPA -0.0% · EPA -4.95]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 27:17) — (12:17) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 13-St. Johnson INTERCEPTED by 44-J.Page at BUF 21. 44-J.Page to BUF 21 for no gain (13-St. Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-76-C.Rinehart, Chop Block, 10 [WPA -2.8% · EPA -4.80]

Quarterback report card

R.Fitzpatrick led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 43 dropbacks · 41.9% completion · -4.8% CPOE · -0.55 EPA/play · -23.61 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 32 dropbacks · 46.9% completion · -7.2% CPOE · -0.07 EPA/play · -2.11 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.12 vs -0.33), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 12 drives, -24.93 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 13 drives, +10.74 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• B. Green-Ellis (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Fitzpatrick (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 55:12 · NE 8 · Score 0-3
   (10:12) 9-R.Lindell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 48:52 · BUF 29 · Score 6-3
   (3:52) (Shotgun) 39-D.Woodhead up the middle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 48:46 · BUF 2 · Score 7-3
   5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 42:32 · BUF 8 · Score 13-3
   (12:32) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 6.
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 42:27 · BUF 2 · Score 14-3
   5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
6. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 34:01 · BUF 16 · Score 17-3
   (4:01) 5-S.Graham 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 30:38 · BUF 4 · Score 23-3
   (:38) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 82-A.Crumpler for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 7 yds. into end zone, crossing from middle.
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 30:33 · BUF 2 · Score 24-3
   5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko. PENALTY on BUF-29-D.Florence, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 26:34 · BUF 8 · Score 30-3
   (11:34) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 4 yds. into end zone, crossing from left.
10. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 26:27 · BUF 2 · Score 31-3
    5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
11. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 10:19 · BUF 8 · Score 34-3
    (10:19) 5-S.Graham 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.