New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: 2006 Week 7 Recap

Game story

In Week 7 of the 2006 NFL season on 2006-10-22, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 28–6 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +11.49 total EPA, and +6.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.49 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+13.0% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (5:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass short right to 21-W.McGahee to NE 17 for 56 yards (26-E.Wilson). Shovel pass, caught at BUF 25.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +11.49 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Watson · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.95 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.19 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Gabriel · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.87 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.96 EPA/play
4. 4 W. McGahee · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.10 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.55 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Jackson · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.71 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.71 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Royal · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.87 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Brown · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.60 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.30 EPA/play
8. 8 R. Caldwell · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.38 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — C. Dillon (Q1 53:29)
• New England Patriots — C. Dillon (Q1 46:07)
• New England Patriots — C. Jackson (T. Brady pass) (Q3 17:49)
• New England Patriots — D. Gabriel (T. Brady pass) (Q4 7:43)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q1 47:28)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q4 11:50)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 8 (Q1 53:29) — (8:29) 28-C.Dillon up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 53:23) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 22 (Q1 47:28) — (2:28) 9-R.Lindell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 12 (Q1 46:07) — (1:07) 28-C.Dillon left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 45:59) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 35 (Q3 17:49) — (2:49) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 17-C.Jackson for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 6 yds. into end zone.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 17:42) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 28 (Q4 11:50) — (11:50) 9-R.Lindell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 5 (Q4 7:43) — (7:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 85-D.Gabriel for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in back of end zone.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 7:36).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q1 50:03) — (5:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass short right to 21-W.McGahee to NE 17 for 56 yards (26-E.Wilson). Shovel pass, caught at BUF 25. [WPA +13.0% · EPA +4.97]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 40:13) — (10:13) 7-J.Losman sacked at NE 47 for -6 yards (50-M.Vrabel). FUMBLES (50-M.Vrabel), RECOVERED by NE-75-V.Wilfork at NE 48. 75-V.Wilfork to NE 48 for no gain (62-A.Merz). [WPA -12.2% · EPA -5.29]
• New England Patriots (Q1 47:24) — 9-R.Lindell kicks 65 yards from BUF 30 to NE 5. 39-L.Maroney to BUF 21 for 74 yards (33-J.Greer). Play Challenged by BUF and Upheld. (Timeout #2 by BUF.) [WPA +12.1% · EPA +3.79]
• New England Patriots (Q1 54:13) — (9:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-T.Brown to BUF 8 for 9 yards (59-L.Fletcher-Baker). Caught at BUF 9. [WPA +6.6% · EPA +1.72]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) 7-J.Losman pass short left intended for 83-L.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Samuel at NE 13. 22-A.Samuel pushed ob at NE 18 for 5 yards (83-L.Evans). Receiver and coverage along sideline. [WPA -6.5% · EPA -3.32]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 40:13) — (10:13) 7-J.Losman sacked at NE 47 for -6 yards (50-M.Vrabel). FUMBLES (50-M.Vrabel), RECOVERED by NE-75-V.Wilfork at NE 48. 75-V.Wilfork to NE 48 for no gain (62-A.Merz). [WPA -12.2% · EPA -5.29]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 50:03) — (5:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass short right to 21-W.McGahee to NE 17 for 56 yards (26-E.Wilson). Shovel pass, caught at BUF 25. [WPA +13.0% · EPA +4.97]
• New England Patriots (Q1 47:24) — 9-R.Lindell kicks 65 yards from BUF 30 to NE 5. 39-L.Maroney to BUF 21 for 74 yards (33-J.Greer). Play Challenged by BUF and Upheld. (Timeout #2 by BUF.) [WPA +12.1% · EPA +3.79]
• New England Patriots (Q3 17:49) — (2:49) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 17-C.Jackson for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 6 yds. into end zone. [WPA +4.4% · EPA +3.71]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 31 dropbacks · 58.1% completion · +6.7% CPOE · +0.37 EPA/play · +11.49 total EPA
• J.Losman (Buffalo Bills) · 30 dropbacks · 53.3% completion · +5.2% CPOE · -0.26 EPA/play · -7.71 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.17 vs -0.16), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, -12.00 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 11 drives, +12.10 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• J. Losman (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 53:29 · BUF 8 · Score 6-0
   (8:29) 28-C.Dillon up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 53:23 · BUF 2 · Score 7-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 47:28 · NE 22 · Score 7-3
   (2:28) 9-R.Lindell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 46:07 · BUF 12 · Score 13-3
   (1:07) 28-C.Dillon left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 45:59 · BUF 2 · Score 14-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.
6. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 17:49 · BUF 35 · Score 20-3
   (2:49) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 17-C.Jackson for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 6 yds. into end zone.
7. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 17:42 · BUF 2 · Score 21-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.
8. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 11:50 · NE 28 · Score 21-6
   (11:50) 9-R.Lindell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 7:43 · BUF 5 · Score 27-6
   (7:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 85-D.Gabriel for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in back of end zone.
10. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 7:36 · BUF 2 · Score 28-6
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller. PENALTY on BUF-18-A.Davis, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced between downs.