New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2013 NFL season on 2013-09-29, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Atlanta Falcons, pulling away with a 30–23 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 30 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with +4.82 total EPA, and +0.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +20.71 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-14.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 84-R.White (31-A.Talib).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +20.71 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.65 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Gonzalez · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +11.27 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +8.62 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
4. 4 K. Thompkins · New England Patriots · Receiving · +8.05 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.73 EPA/play
5. 5 H. Douglas · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +5.57 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.93 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +4.82 total EPA · 60 snaps · +0.08 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Rodgers · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +2.05 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
8. 8 B. Bolden · New England Patriots · Rushing · +1.52 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.25 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — M. Mulligan (T. Brady pass) (Q2 42:49)
• Atlanta Falcons — T. Gonzalez (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 30:46)
• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q4 14:37)
• New England Patriots — K. Thompkins (T. Brady pass) (Q4 9:50)
• Atlanta Falcons — T. Gonzalez (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 4:28)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q1 54:27)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 33:27)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 20:29)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q4 11:57)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 6:23)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q4 3:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 3–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the NE 5 (Q1 54:27) — (9:27) 3-M.Bryant 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the ATL 1 (Q2 42:49) — (12:49) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-M.Mulligan for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q2 42:43) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the ATL 30 (Q2 33:27) — (3:27) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the NE 21 (Q2 30:46) — (:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 88-T.Gonzalez for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 30:38) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the ATL 4 (Q3 20:29) — (5:29) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 17–13. New England Patriots found the end zone from the ATL 47 (Q4 14:37) — (14:37) 29-L.Blount left guard for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL-52-A.Dent was injured during the play.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q4 14:26) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the NE 27 (Q4 11:57) — (11:57) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the ATL 18 (Q4 9:50) — (9:50) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 85-K.Thompkins for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q4 9:43) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the ATL 31 (Q4 6:23) — (6:23) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the NE 11 (Q4 4:28) — (4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 88-T.Gonzalez for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 4:22) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the NE 7 (Q4 3:00) — (3:00) 3-M.Bryant 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:41) — (:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 84-R.White (31-A.Talib). [WPA -14.3% · EPA -2.64]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 1:50) — (1:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones to NE 13 for 49 yards (32-D.McCourty). [WPA +13.5% · EPA +3.24]
• New England Patriots (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 85-K.Thompkins to NE 38 for 26 yards (25-W.Moore). PENALTY on ATL-25-W.Moore, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 38. Penalty was for hit t [WPA +13.5% · EPA +4.33]
• New England Patriots (Q4 14:37) — (14:37) 29-L.Blount left guard for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL-52-A.Dent was injured during the play. [WPA +13.5% · EPA +4.47]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 12:33) — (12:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NE 27 for -9 yards (99-M.Buchanan). [WPA -13.0% · EPA -2.01]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q4 14:37) — (14:37) 29-L.Blount left guard for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL-52-A.Dent was injured during the play. [WPA +13.5% · EPA +4.47]
• New England Patriots (Q4 10:29) — (10:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at ATL 18 for 44 yards (27-R.McClain). [WPA +7.7% · EPA +4.35]
• New England Patriots (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 85-K.Thompkins to NE 38 for 26 yards (25-W.Moore). PENALTY on ATL-25-W.Moore, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 38. Penalty was for hit t [WPA +13.5% · EPA +4.33]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 5:39) — (5:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 83-H.Douglas ran ob at NE 23 for 40 yards (28-S.Gregory) [50-R.Ninkovich]. [WPA +0.0% · EPA +3.71]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 60 dropbacks · 56.7% completion · +0.7% CPOE · +0.08 EPA/play · +4.82 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 32 dropbacks · 62.5% completion · +5.6% CPOE · +0.65 EPA/play · +20.71 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.21 vs +0.07), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Atlanta Falcons: 11 drives, +6.48 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 12 drives, +17.93 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 54:27 · NE 5 · Score 0-3
   (9:27) 3-M.Bryant 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 42:49 · ATL 1 · Score 6-3
   (12:49) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-M.Mulligan for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 42:43 · ATL 2 · Score 7-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
4. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 33:27 · ATL 30 · Score 10-3
   (3:27) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
5. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 30:46 · NE 21 · Score 10-9
   (:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 88-T.Gonzalez for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 30:38 · NE 2 · Score 10-10
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
7. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 20:29 · ATL 4 · Score 13-10
   (5:29) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
8. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 14:37 · ATL 47 · Score 19-10
   (14:37) 29-L.Blount left guard for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL-52-A.Dent was injured during the play.
9. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 14:26 · ATL 2 · Score 20-10
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
10. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 11:57 · NE 27 · Score 20-13
    (11:57) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
11. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 9:50 · ATL 18 · Score 26-13
    (9:50) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 85-K.Thompkins for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 9:43 · ATL 2 · Score 27-13
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
13. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 6:23 · ATL 31 · Score 30-13
    (6:23) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
14. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 4:28 · NE 11 · Score 30-19
    (4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 88-T.Gonzalez for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 4:22 · NE 2 · Score 30-20
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
16. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 3:00 · NE 7 · Score 30-23
    (3:00) 3-M.Bryant 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.