Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 7 Recap

Game story

In Week 7 of the 2014 NFL season on 2014-10-19, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Minnesota Vikings, pulling away with a 17–16 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

K. Orton (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with -6.40 total EPA, and +10.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, S. Watkins (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.53 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+33.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (:01) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short left to 14-S.Watkins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front left corner of end zone.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 S. Watkins · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +9.53 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Wright · Minnesota Vikings · Receiving · +6.55 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.64 EPA/play
3. 3 G. Jennings · Minnesota Vikings · Receiving · +4.24 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.61 EPA/play
4. 4 C. Spiller · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +3.16 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.16 EPA/play
5. 5 F. Jackson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.00 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.67 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Gragg · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.78 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.89 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Asiata · Minnesota Vikings · Receiving · +1.35 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
8. 8 K. Orton · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +0.98 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.98 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — S. Watkins (K. Orton pass) (Q2 39:28)
• Minnesota Vikings — C. Patterson (T. Bridgewater pass) (Q2 36:23)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Watkins (K. Orton pass) (Q4 0:01)

Field goals

• Minnesota Vikings — B. Walsh (Q1 46:54)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q2 34:05)
• Minnesota Vikings — B. Walsh (Q2 30:18)
• Minnesota Vikings — B. Walsh (Q4 11:47)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Minnesota Vikings won the period 3–0. Minnesota Vikings connected on a field goal from the BUF 22 (Q1 46:54) — (1:54) 3-B.Walsh 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-18-J.Locke..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 10–10. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIN 26 (Q2 39:28) — (9:28) 18-K.Orton pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught on run at MIN 1.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIN 2 (Q2 39:23) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Minnesota Vikings found the end zone from the BUF 4 (Q2 36:23) — (6:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WR screen, caught at BUF 6.; Minnesota Vikings added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 36:17) — 3-B.Walsh extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-18-J.Locke.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIN 14 (Q2 34:05) — (4:05) 2-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Minnesota Vikings connected on a field goal from the BUF 37 (Q2 30:18) — (:18) 3-B.Walsh 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-18-J.Locke. Ties as 3rd longest FG in Vikings history..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. Minnesota Vikings connected on a field goal from the BUF 15 (Q4 11:47) — (11:47) 3-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-18-J.Locke.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIN 2 (Q4 0:01) — (:01) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short left to 14-S.Watkins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front left corner of end zone.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIN 2 (Q4 0:01) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:01) — (:01) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short left to 14-S.Watkins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front left corner of end zone. [WPA +33.3% · EPA +3.64]
• Minnesota Vikings (Q4 0:01) — 4-J.Gay kicks onside 15 yards from BUF 35 to 50. 27-S.Prater to MIN 40 for -10 yards. Lateral to 35-M.Sherels to MIN 37 for -3 yards. Lateral to 84-C.Patterson to MIN 37 for no gain (27-D.Williams). [WPA -28.0% · EPA +0.00]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 22:26) — (7:26) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton sacked at MIN 20 for -3 yards (97-E.Griffen). FUMBLES (97-E.Griffen), RECOVERED by MIN-55-A.Barr at MIN 18. 55-A.Barr to MIN 18 for no gain (70-E.Wood). [WPA -18.5% · EPA -5.01]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:27) — (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle to 84-S.Chandler to MIN 36 for 24 yards (22-H.Smith). [WPA +17.9% · EPA +3.19]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:25) — (:25) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep left to 15-C.Hogan to MIN 2 for 28 yards (29-X.Rhodes). Caught along sideline at BUF 2. [WPA +17.6% · EPA +1.37]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 22:26) — (7:26) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton sacked at MIN 20 for -3 yards (97-E.Griffen). FUMBLES (97-E.Griffen), RECOVERED by MIN-55-A.Barr at MIN 18. 55-A.Barr to MIN 18 for no gain (70-E.Wood). [WPA -18.5% · EPA -5.01]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 48:56) — (3:56) 18-K.Orton pass short middle to 10-R.Woods to BUF 26 for 7 yards (22-H.Smith). FUMBLES (22-H.Smith), RECOVERED by MIN-55-A.Barr at BUF 27. Caught at BUF 25. The Replay Official challenged the f [WPA -15.4% · EPA -4.41]
• Minnesota Vikings (Q2 39:34) — (9:34) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 21-L.McKelvin at MIN 26. 21-L.McKelvin ran ob at MIN 26 for no gain. Intercepted along sideline. [WPA -12.8% · EPA -4.25]
• Minnesota Vikings (Q2 42:24) — (12:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right intended for 86-C.Ford INTERCEPTED by 21-L.McKelvin (51-B.Spikes) at BUF 20. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 29 for 9 yards (61-J.Berger). Pass deflected in cove [WPA -7.4% · EPA -3.98]

Quarterback report card

K.Orton led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• K.Orton (Buffalo Bills) · 50 dropbacks · 62.0% completion · +10.9% CPOE · -0.13 EPA/play · -6.40 total EPA
• T.Bridgewater (Minnesota Vikings) · 33 dropbacks · 45.5% completion · -3.1% CPOE · -0.26 EPA/play · -8.52 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Minnesota Vikings -0.08, Buffalo Bills -0.09) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 13 drives, -7.57 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Minnesota Vikings: 13 drives, -7.12 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• S. Watkins (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• K. Orton (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Bridgewater (MIN) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Minnesota Vikings FG (+3) — Q1 46:54 · BUF 22 · Score 3-0
   (1:54) 3-B.Walsh 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-18-J.Locke.
2. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 39:28 · MIN 26 · Score 3-6
   (9:28) 18-K.Orton pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught on run at MIN 1.
3. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 39:23 · MIN 2 · Score 3-7
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
4. Minnesota Vikings TD (+6) — Q2 36:23 · BUF 4 · Score 9-7
   (6:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WR screen, caught at BUF 6.
5. Minnesota Vikings XP (+1) — Q2 36:17 · BUF 2 · Score 10-7
   3-B.Walsh extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-18-J.Locke.
6. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 34:05 · MIN 14 · Score 10-10
   (4:05) 2-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
7. Minnesota Vikings FG (+3) — Q2 30:18 · BUF 37 · Score 13-10
   (:18) 3-B.Walsh 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-18-J.Locke. Ties as 3rd longest FG in Vikings history.
8. Minnesota Vikings FG (+3) — Q4 11:47 · BUF 15 · Score 16-10
   (11:47) 3-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-18-J.Locke.
9. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 0:01 · MIN 2 · Score 16-16
   (:01) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short left to 14-S.Watkins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front left corner of end zone.
10. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 0:01 · MIN 2 · Score 16-17
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.