Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2023 Week 9 Recap

Game story

In Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season on 2023-11-05, the Minnesota Vikings took care of business against the Atlanta Falcons, pulling away with a 31–28 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 29 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Heinicke (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with -1.40 total EPA, and -7.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Smith (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.56 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+33.9% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Minnesota Vikings changed the game: (:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 12 for 22 yards (27-R.Grant).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Smith · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +7.56 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.26 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Dobbs · Minnesota Vikings · Passing · +6.22 total EPA · 40 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Mattison · Minnesota Vikings · Receiving · +5.41 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.71 EPA/play
4. 4 K. Pitts · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +5.36 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.07 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Osborn · Minnesota Vikings · Receiving · +3.72 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.86 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Hockenson · Minnesota Vikings · Receiving · +3.31 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Hall · Minnesota Vikings · Passing · +2.82 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
8. 8 K. Hodge · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +2.71 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Minnesota Vikings — A. Mattison (J. Dobbs pass) (Q2 31:00)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Smith (T. Heinicke pass) (Q3 22:04)
• Minnesota Vikings — J. Dobbs (Q3 17:29)
• Atlanta Falcons — T. Allgeier (Q4 2:13)
• Minnesota Vikings — B. Powell (J. Dobbs pass) (Q4 0:27)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q1 52:11)
• Minnesota Vikings — G. Joseph (Q1 47:23)
• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q2 39:02)
• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q2 35:35)
• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q3 27:20)
• Minnesota Vikings — G. Joseph (Q3 23:16)
• Minnesota Vikings — G. Joseph (Q4 14:22)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the MIN 34 (Q1 52:11) — (7:11) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.; Minnesota Vikings connected on a field goal from the ATL 1 (Q1 47:23) — (2:23) 1-G.Joseph 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright..

The second quarter: Minnesota Vikings won the period 13–8. Atlanta Falcons registered a safety from the ATL 95 (Q2 44:12) — (14:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (93-C.Campbell).; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the MIN 24 (Q2 39:02) — (9:02) 6-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the MIN 5 (Q2 35:35) — (5:35) 6-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.; Minnesota Vikings found the end zone from the ATL 2 (Q2 31:00) — (1:00) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 2-A.Mattison for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Minnesota Vikings found the end zone from the ATL 15 (Q2 30:55) — 1-G.Joseph extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright..

The third quarter: Minnesota Vikings won the period 11–10. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the MIN 36 (Q3 27:20); Minnesota Vikings connected on a field goal from the ATL 14 (Q3 23:16) — (8:16) 1-G.Joseph 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the MIN 60 (Q3 22:04) — (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the MIN 15 (Q3 21:54) — 6-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.; Minnesota Vikings found the end zone from the ATL 18 (Q3 17:29) — (2:29) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Minnesota Vikings registered a safety from the ATL 2 (Q3 17:20) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-J.Dobbs pass to 9-T.Jackson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

The fourth quarter: Minnesota Vikings won the period 16–13. Minnesota Vikings connected on a field goal from the ATL 13 (Q4 14:22) — (14:22) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the MIN 5 (Q4 2:13); Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the MIN 30 (Q4 2:08) — 6-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.; Minnesota Vikings found the end zone from the ATL 6 (Q4 0:27) — (:27) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Minnesota Vikings found the end zone from the ATL 15 (Q4 0:22) — 1-G.Joseph extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Minnesota Vikings (Q4 0:52) — (:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 12 for 22 yards (27-R.Grant). [WPA +33.9% · EPA +3.18]
• Minnesota Vikings (Q4 0:27) — (:27) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +31.4% · EPA +2.79]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 22:04) — (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.6% · EPA +4.99]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:05) — (:05) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete deep right (7-B.Murphy). [WPA -17.0% · EPA -0.24]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 17:20) — (2:20) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 14-D.Byrd INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at ATL 42. 7-B.Murphy ran ob at ATL 24 for 18 yards (81-J.Smith). [WPA -16.5% · EPA -5.95]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Minnesota Vikings (Q2 37:45) — (7:45) 15-J.Dobbs sacked at MIN 22 for -4 yards (17-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (17-A.Ebiketie) [17-A.Ebiketie], touched at MIN 22, RECOVERED by ATL-0-L.Carter at MIN 20. 0-L.Carter to MIN 1 for 19 yards (84 [WPA -16.1% · EPA -7.82]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 17:20) — (2:20) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 14-D.Byrd INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at ATL 42. 7-B.Murphy ran ob at ATL 24 for 18 yards (81-J.Smith). [WPA -16.5% · EPA -5.95]
• Minnesota Vikings (Q3 28:53) — (13:53) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs sacked at MIN 27 for -6 yards (90-D.Onyemata). FUMBLES (90-D.Onyemata), RECOVERED by ATL-75-K.Street at MIN 30. [WPA -11.4% · EPA -5.08]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 22:04) — (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.6% · EPA +4.99]

Quarterback report card

T.Heinicke led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Heinicke (Atlanta Falcons) · 42 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -7.1% CPOE · -0.03 EPA/play · -1.40 total EPA
• J.Dobbs (Minnesota Vikings) · 40 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -0.5% CPOE · +0.16 EPA/play · +6.22 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Minnesota Vikings generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.02 vs -0.07), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Atlanta Falcons: 13 drives, -6.64 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Minnesota Vikings: 13 drives, -1.79 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Minnesota Vikings leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Smith (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Heinicke (ATL) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 52:11 · MIN 34 · Score 0-3
   (7:11) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
2. Minnesota Vikings FG (+3) — Q1 47:23 · ATL 1 · Score 3-3
   (2:23) 1-G.Joseph 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
3. Atlanta Falcons Safety (+2) — Q2 44:12 · ATL 95 · Score 3-5
   (14:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (93-C.Campbell).
4. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 39:02 · MIN 24 · Score 3-8
   (9:02) 6-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
5. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 35:35 · MIN 5 · Score 3-11
   (5:35) 6-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
6. Minnesota Vikings TD (+6) — Q2 31:00 · ATL 2 · Score 9-11
   (1:00) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 2-A.Mattison for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Minnesota Vikings TD (+7) — Q2 30:55 · ATL 15 · Score 10-11
   1-G.Joseph extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
8. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q3 27:20 · MIN 36 · Score 10-14
   (12:20) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on MIN-20-J.Ward, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
9. Minnesota Vikings FG (+3) — Q3 23:16 · ATL 14 · Score 13-14
   (8:16) 1-G.Joseph 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
10. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 22:04 · MIN 60 · Score 13-20
    (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 21:54 · MIN 15 · Score 13-21
    6-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
12. Minnesota Vikings TD (+6) — Q3 17:29 · ATL 18 · Score 19-21
    (2:29) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Minnesota Vikings Safety (+2) — Q3 17:20 · ATL 2 · Score 21-21
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-J.Dobbs pass to 9-T.Jackson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
14. Minnesota Vikings FG (+3) — Q4 14:22 · ATL 13 · Score 24-21
    (14:22) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
15. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 2:13 · MIN 5 · Score 24-27
    (2:13) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-15-V.Jefferson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
16. Atlanta Falcons TD (+7) — Q4 2:08 · MIN 30 · Score 24-28
    6-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
17. Minnesota Vikings TD (+6) — Q4 0:27 · ATL 6 · Score 30-28
    (:27) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Minnesota Vikings TD (+7) — Q4 0:22 · ATL 15 · Score 31-28
    1-G.Joseph extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.