Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: 2011 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-12-24, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 27–24 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +2.22 total EPA, and -8.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Moore (Miami Dolphins) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.28 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+14.1% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Miami Dolphins changed the game: (12:32) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 82-B.Hartline to NE 30 for 39 yards (32-D.McCourty).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Moore · Miami Dolphins · Passing · +12.28 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Marshall · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +8.09 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.74 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Hartline · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +4.78 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.85 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Rushing · +3.55 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Hernandez · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.82 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
7. 7 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.55 total EPA · 19 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +2.22 total EPA · 53 snaps · +0.04 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Miami Dolphins — B. Marshall (M. Moore pass) (Q2 43:50)
• Miami Dolphins — C. Clay (M. Moore pass) (Q2 36:36)
• New England Patriots — D. Branch (T. Brady pass) (Q3 22:16)
• New England Patriots — T. Brady (Q3 17:21)
• New England Patriots — T. Brady (Q4 3:02)
• Miami Dolphins — D. Bess (M. Moore pass) (Q4 1:53)

Field goals

• Miami Dolphins — D. Carpenter (Q1 56:04)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 26:44)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 9:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 3–0. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the NE 30 (Q1 56:04) — (11:04) 5-D.Carpenter 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields..

The second quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 14–0. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 19 (Q2 43:50) — (13:50) 8-M.Moore pass deep middle to 19-B.Marshall for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 43:45) — 5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q2 36:36) — (6:36) 8-M.Moore pass short left to 31-C.Clay for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 36:31) — 5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 17–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the MIA 26 (Q3 26:44) — (11:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 1 (Q3 22:16); New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q3 22:10) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 1 (Q3 17:21) — (2:21) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q3 17:17) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–7. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the MIA 24 (Q4 9:00) — (9:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 1 (Q4 3:02) — (3:02) 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q4 2:56) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 15 (Q4 1:53) — (1:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short left to 15-D.Bess for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 1:48) — 5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Miami Dolphins (Q1 57:32) — (12:32) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 82-B.Hartline to NE 30 for 39 yards (32-D.McCourty). [WPA +14.1% · EPA +4.17]
• New England Patriots (Q4 10:59) — (10:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 83-W.Welker pushed ob at MIA 14 for 42 yards (29-T.Culver). NE 12-Brady now has 4,845 this season, career best. NE 83-Welker 23rd career 100-yard game. [WPA +13.7% · EPA +3.37]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 43:50) — (13:50) 8-M.Moore pass deep middle to 19-B.Marshall for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.1% · EPA +3.27]
• New England Patriots (Q4 9:00) — (9:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko. [WPA +10.5% · EPA +0.94]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 13:34) — (13:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short left to 82-B.Hartline to NE 44 for 10 yards (24-K.Arrington). New England challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1.) [WPA +9.8% · EPA +1.90]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Miami Dolphins (Q1 57:32) — (12:32) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 82-B.Hartline to NE 30 for 39 yards (32-D.McCourty). [WPA +14.1% · EPA +4.17]
• Miami Dolphins (Q3 25:48) — (10:48) 8-M.Moore FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 38, RECOVERED by NE-75-V.Wilfork at MIA 38. 75-V.Wilfork to MIA 38 for no gain (68-R.Incognito). [WPA -6.2% · EPA -3.74]
• New England Patriots (Q4 10:59) — (10:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 83-W.Welker pushed ob at MIA 14 for 42 yards (29-T.Culver). NE 12-Brady now has 4,845 this season, career best. NE 83-Welker 23rd career 100-yard game. [WPA +13.7% · EPA +3.37]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 43:50) — (13:50) 8-M.Moore pass deep middle to 19-B.Marshall for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.1% · EPA +3.27]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 53 dropbacks · 50.9% completion · -8.0% CPOE · +0.04 EPA/play · +2.22 total EPA
• M.Moore (Miami Dolphins) · 38 dropbacks · 42.1% completion · -2.6% CPOE · +0.32 EPA/play · +12.28 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Miami Dolphins +0.11, New England Patriots +0.10) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Miami Dolphins: 13 drives, +10.06 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 13 drives, +10.40 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• M. Moore (Miami Dolphins) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q1 56:04 · NE 30 · Score 3-0
   (11:04) 5-D.Carpenter 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
2. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 43:50 · NE 19 · Score 9-0
   (13:50) 8-M.Moore pass deep middle to 19-B.Marshall for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 43:45 · NE 2 · Score 10-0
   5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
4. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 36:36 · NE 1 · Score 16-0
   (6:36) 8-M.Moore pass short left to 31-C.Clay for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 36:31 · NE 2 · Score 17-0
   5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
6. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 26:44 · MIA 26 · Score 17-3
   (11:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 22:16 · MIA 1 · Score 17-9
   (7:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 84-D.Branch for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [91-C.Wake]. NE 12-Brady 31st straight regular season game with a TD
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 22:10 · MIA 2 · Score 17-10
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 17:21 · MIA 1 · Score 17-16
   (2:21) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 17:17 · MIA 2 · Score 17-17
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
11. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 9:00 · MIA 24 · Score 17-20
    (9:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
12. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 3:02 · MIA 1 · Score 17-26
    (3:02) 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
13. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 2:56 · MIA 2 · Score 17-27
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
14. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 1:53 · NE 15 · Score 23-27
    (1:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short left to 15-D.Bess for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 1:48 · NE 2 · Score 24-27
    5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.