Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: 2007 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2007 NFL season on 2007-12-23, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 28–7 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Lemon (Miami Dolphins) paced the passing game, with -17.30 total EPA, and -14.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Gaffney (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.19 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+6.5% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (:42) (Shotgun) 39-L.Maroney left guard to MIA 28 for 51 yards (55-J.Porter). NE39-Maroney longest run of his career.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Gaffney · New England Patriots · Receiving · +9.19 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.84 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Moss · New England Patriots · Receiving · +6.93 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.39 EPA/play
3. 3 L. Maroney · New England Patriots · Rushing · +4.87 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
4. 4 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.21 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +2.99 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.07 EPA/play
6. 6 L. Booker · Miami Dolphins · Rushing · +2.53 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Martin · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +2.23 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.11 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Booker · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +2.22 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.74 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — R. Moss (T. Brady pass) (Q1 53:52)
• New England Patriots — R. Moss (T. Brady pass) (Q2 43:36)
• New England Patriots — L. Maroney (Q2 40:14)
• New England Patriots — J. Gaffney (T. Brady pass) (Q2 33:41)
• Miami Dolphins — G. Camarillo (C. Lemon pass) (Q3 16:19)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 11 (Q1 53:52); New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q1 53:47) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 21–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 1 (Q2 43:36); New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q2 43:32) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 59 (Q2 40:14); New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q2 40:04); New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 48 (Q2 33:41); New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q2 33:33).

The third quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 7–0. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 21 (Q3 16:19) — (1:19) 17-C.Lemon pass deep left to 83-G.Camarillo for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q3 16:13) — 3-J.Feely extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-B.Fields..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q1 45:42) — (:42) (Shotgun) 39-L.Maroney left guard to MIA 28 for 51 yards (55-J.Porter). NE39-Maroney longest run of his career. [WPA +6.5% · EPA +2.98]
• New England Patriots (Q1 53:52) — (8:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-R.Moss for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-56-D.Pope, Illegal Contact, declined. Patriots now have 68 TDs for the 2007 season, 2nd best all-time [WPA +5.4% · EPA +2.67]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 59:16) — (14:16) (Shotgun) 17-C.Lemon pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Peelle. [WPA -4.8% · EPA -1.38]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 46:20) — (1:20) 17-C.Lemon pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Martin. [WPA -3.8% · EPA -0.53]
• New England Patriots (Q1 57:12) — (12:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 18-D.Stallworth to MIA 29 for 16 yards (21-A.Goodman). Patriots have set a new franchise record for first downs in a season with 349 (348 in 1994). [WPA +3.7% · EPA +0.80]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q2 33:41) — (3:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-J.Gaffney for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady now has 48 TD passes for the 2007 season, tied for 2nd best all-time (Dan Marino 1984) Patriots have set [WPA +2.4% · EPA +5.36]
• New England Patriots (Q2 40:14) — (10:14) NE68-O'Callaghan eligible. 39-L.Maroney left guard for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 39-Maroney longest run of his career. NE 39-Maroney is now the 19th player in Patriots history to have at least t [WPA +3.1% · EPA +5.06]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 38:23) — (8:23) 4-B.Fields punts 38 yards to 50, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-T.Brown MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-59-D.Spragan at MIA 45. [WPA +2.6% · EPA +4.20]
• New England Patriots (Q3 28:28) — (13:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right intended for 81-R.Moss INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Allen at MIA -3. 32-J.Allen ran ob at MIA 10 for 13 yards. [WPA -0.6% · EPA -3.56]

Quarterback report card

C.Lemon led all passers in efficiency for Miami Dolphins, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Lemon (Miami Dolphins) · 50 dropbacks · 36.0% completion · -14.8% CPOE · -0.35 EPA/play · -17.30 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 41 dropbacks · 43.9% completion · +1.5% CPOE · +0.07 EPA/play · +2.99 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.13 vs -0.12), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Miami Dolphins: 14 drives, -10.21 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 13 drives, +10.18 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Gaffney (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Lemon (MIA) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 53:52 · MIA 11 · Score 0-6
   (8:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-R.Moss for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-56-D.Pope, Illegal Contact, declined. Patriots now have 68 TD
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 53:47 · MIA 2 · Score 0-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 43:36 · MIA 1 · Score 0-13
   (13:36) NE 68-O'Callaghan eligible 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-R.Moss for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 123rd career TD, tying Marvin Harrison for 10th a
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 43:32 · MIA 2 · Score 0-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 40:14 · MIA 59 · Score 0-20
   (10:14) NE68-O'Callaghan eligible. 39-L.Maroney left guard for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 39-Maroney longest run of his career. NE 39-Maroney is now the 19th playe
6. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 40:04 · MIA 2 · Score 0-21
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson. Patriots now have 544 points for the 2007 season, 2nd best all-time.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 33:41 · MIA 48 · Score 0-27
   (3:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-J.Gaffney for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady now has 48 TD passes for the 2007 season, tied for 2nd best all-
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 33:33 · MIA 2 · Score 0-28
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson. Patriots now have 551 points for the 2007 season, 2nd best all-time.
9. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q3 16:19 · NE 21 · Score 6-28
   (1:19) 17-C.Lemon pass deep left to 83-G.Camarillo for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q3 16:13 · NE 2 · Score 7-28
    3-J.Feely extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-B.Fields.