Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2012 Week 9 Recap

Game story

In Week 9 of the 2012 NFL season on 2012-11-04, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 23–20 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +23.74 total EPA, and +4.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +23.74 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+16.7% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (1:58) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Luck · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +23.74 total EPA · 54 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Tannehill · Miami Dolphins · Passing · +7.72 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +6.93 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play
4. 4 B. Hartline · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +6.82 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Allen · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +6.15 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.79 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Avery · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.74 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Clay · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +3.72 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.72 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — R. Wayne (A. Luck pass) (Q1 45:53)
• Miami Dolphins — C. Clay (R. Tannehill pass) (Q2 43:32)
• Miami Dolphins — R. Bush (Q2 35:16)
• Indianapolis Colts — T. Hilton (A. Luck pass) (Q3 16:58)

Field goals

• Miami Dolphins — D. Carpenter (Q1 49:21)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 39:42)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 30:12)
• Miami Dolphins — D. Carpenter (Q4 13:17)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q4 6:03)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–3. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the IND 19 (Q1 49:21) — (4:21) 5-D.Carpenter 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the MIA 9 (Q1 45:53) — (:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 87-R.Wayne for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q1 45:47) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The second quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 14–6. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the IND 31 (Q2 43:32) — (13:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 42-C.Clay for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 43:25) — 5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the MIA 5 (Q2 39:42) — (9:42) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the IND 18 (Q2 35:16); Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 35:07) — 5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the MIA 29 (Q2 30:12) — (:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the MIA 36 (Q3 16:58) — (1:58) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q3 16:49) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the IND 13 (Q4 13:17) — (13:17) 5-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the MIA 25 (Q4 6:03) — (6:03) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 16:58) — (1:58) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.7% · EPA +3.33]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 1:48) — (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 33-D.Thomas to IND 41 for 14 yards (58-M.Fokou) [90-C.Redding]. Penalty on MIA-77-J.Long, Offensive Holding, declined. [WPA -14.0% · EPA -1.33]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 25:16) — (10:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at MIA 38 for -4 yards (91-C.Wake). FUMBLES (91-C.Wake), touched at MIA 48, recovered by IND-83-D.Allen at 50. 83-D.Allen to 50 for no gain (98-J.Odrick). MIA - Wake [WPA -12.1% · EPA -2.29]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 26:17) — (11:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 11-D.Avery pushed ob at MIA 35 for 22 yards (30-C.Clemons). [WPA +12.0% · EPA +2.71]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 47:22) — (2:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton to MIA 42 for 25 yards (30-C.Clemons) [98-J.Odrick]. [WPA +11.7% · EPA +3.10]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Miami Dolphins (Q2 43:32) — (13:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 42-C.Clay for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.2% · EPA +3.72]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 16:58) — (1:58) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.7% · EPA +3.33]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 54:40) — (9:40) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. Penalty on IND-72-J.Linkenbach, Offensive Holding, declined. [WPA -6.6% · EPA -3.19]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 47:22) — (2:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton to MIA 42 for 25 yards (30-C.Clemons) [98-J.Odrick]. [WPA +11.7% · EPA +3.10]

Quarterback report card

A.Luck led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 54 dropbacks · 55.6% completion · +4.6% CPOE · +0.44 EPA/play · +23.74 total EPA
• R.Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) · 42 dropbacks · 52.4% completion · -6.2% CPOE · +0.18 EPA/play · +7.72 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Miami Dolphins +0.12, Indianapolis Colts +0.11) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, +10.81 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Miami Dolphins: 10 drives, +9.93 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Luck (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• R. Tannehill (MIA) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q1 49:21 · IND 19 · Score 3-0
   (4:21) 5-D.Carpenter 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
2. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 45:53 · MIA 9 · Score 3-6
   (:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 87-R.Wayne for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 45:47 · MIA 2 · Score 3-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
4. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 43:32 · IND 31 · Score 9-7
   (13:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 42-C.Clay for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 43:25 · IND 2 · Score 10-7
   5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
6. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 39:42 · MIA 5 · Score 10-10
   (9:42) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
7. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 35:16 · IND 18 · Score 16-10
   (5:16) (Run formation) 22-R.Bush left end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on IND-32-C.Vaughn, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
8. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 35:07 · IND 2 · Score 17-10
   5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
9. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 30:12 · MIA 29 · Score 17-13
   (:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
10. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 16:58 · MIA 36 · Score 17-19
    (1:58) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 16:49 · MIA 2 · Score 17-20
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
12. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q4 13:17 · IND 13 · Score 20-20
    (13:17) 5-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
13. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 6:03 · MIA 25 · Score 20-23
    (6:03) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.