Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2006 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2006 NFL season on 2006-12-31, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 27–22 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +15.88 total EPA, and +3.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +15.88 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-15.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Miami Dolphins changed the game: (:07) (Shotgun) 17-C.Lemon pass incomplete deep left to 83-W.Welker.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +15.88 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Harrison · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +8.23 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.65 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Clark · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.23 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.31 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.51 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play
5. 5 R. McMichael · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +3.85 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Booker · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +3.78 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.94 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Addai · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.47 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.16 EPA/play
8. 8 W. Welker · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +3.23 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.08 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — D. Klecko (P. Manning pass) (Q2 42:47)
• Indianapolis Colts — P. Manning (Q2 30:26)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Harrison (P. Manning pass) (Q4 10:12)
• Miami Dolphins — R. McMichael (C. Lemon pass) (Q4 3:15)

Field goals

• Miami Dolphins — O. Mare (Q1 52:52)
• Miami Dolphins — O. Mare (Q2 31:35)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 30:02)
• Miami Dolphins — O. Mare (Q3 28:22)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q3 22:40)
• Miami Dolphins — O. Mare (Q3 17:14)
• Miami Dolphins — O. Mare (Q4 12:42)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 3–0. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the IND 10 (Q1 52:52) — (7:52) 10-O.Mare 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 17–3. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the MIA 2 (Q2 42:47) — (12:47) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 61-D.Klecko for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q2 42:40) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the IND 20 (Q2 31:35) — (1:35) 10-O.Mare 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the MIA 11 (Q2 30:26) — (:26) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning scrambles up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q2 30:19) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the MIA 28 (Q2 30:02) — (:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The third quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 6–3. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the IND 24 (Q3 28:22) — (13:22) 10-O.Mare 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the MIA 16 (Q3 22:40) — (7:40) 4-A.Vinatieri 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the IND 9 (Q3 17:14) — (2:14) 10-O.Mare 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones..

The fourth quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 10–7. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the IND 16 (Q4 12:42) — (12:42) 10-O.Mare 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the MIA 27 (Q4 10:12) — (10:12) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-M.Harrison for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q4 10:07) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the IND 6 (Q4 3:15) — (3:15) 17-C.Lemon pass short middle to 81-R.McMichael for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 3:11) — 10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Miami Dolphins (Q4 0:07) — (:07) (Shotgun) 17-C.Lemon pass incomplete deep left to 83-W.Welker. [WPA -15.8% · EPA -0.64]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:13) — (1:13) 17-H.Smith punts 39 yards to MIA 20, Center-48-J.Snow. 83-W.Welker to MIA 20 for no gain (53-K.O'Neil). [WPA -12.4% · EPA -0.29]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 59:46) — (14:46) 17-H.Smith punts 56 yards to MIA 29, Center-48-J.Snow. 83-W.Welker to MIA 37 for 8 yards (53-K.O'Neil, 54-F.Keiaho). [WPA +10.3% · EPA +0.64]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 10:12) — (10:12) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-M.Harrison for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.9% · EPA +2.80]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 33:23) — (3:23) (Shotgun) 17-C.Lemon pass deep left to 81-R.McMichael to IND 26 for 17 yards (58-G.Brackett) [59-C.June]. [WPA +9.5% · EPA +1.87]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 4:39) — (4:39) 29-J.Addai FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 47, RECOVERED by MIA-99-J.Taylor at MIA 47. 99-J.Taylor to IND 39 for 14 yards (87-R.Wayne). [WPA -5.1% · EPA -5.73]
• Miami Dolphins (Q3 29:54) — (14:54) 23-R.Brown up the middle to IND 28 for 47 yards (41-A.Bethea). [WPA +4.5% · EPA +3.37]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 10:12) — (10:12) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-M.Harrison for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.9% · EPA +2.80]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 30:26) — (:26) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning scrambles up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.8% · EPA +2.58]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 39 dropbacks · 56.4% completion · +3.5% CPOE · +0.41 EPA/play · +15.88 total EPA
• C.Lemon (Miami Dolphins) · 38 dropbacks · 47.4% completion · -0.3% CPOE · +0.08 EPA/play · +2.97 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Miami Dolphins +0.10, Indianapolis Colts +0.09) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, +7.90 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Miami Dolphins: 10 drives, +8.20 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Manning (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q1 52:52 · IND 10 · Score 3-0
   (7:52) 10-O.Mare 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones.
2. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 42:47 · MIA 2 · Score 3-6
   (12:47) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 61-D.Klecko for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 42:40 · MIA 2 · Score 3-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
4. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q2 31:35 · IND 20 · Score 6-7
   (1:35) 10-O.Mare 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones.
5. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 30:26 · MIA 11 · Score 6-13
   (:26) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning scrambles up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 30:19 · MIA 2 · Score 6-14
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
7. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 30:02 · MIA 28 · Score 6-17
   (:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
8. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q3 28:22 · IND 24 · Score 9-17
   (13:22) 10-O.Mare 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones.
9. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q3 22:40 · MIA 16 · Score 9-20
   (7:40) 4-A.Vinatieri 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
10. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q3 17:14 · IND 9 · Score 12-20
    (2:14) 10-O.Mare 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones.
11. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q4 12:42 · IND 16 · Score 15-20
    (12:42) 10-O.Mare 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones.
12. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 10:12 · MIA 27 · Score 15-26
    (10:12) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-M.Harrison for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 10:07 · MIA 2 · Score 15-27
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
14. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 3:15 · IND 6 · Score 21-27
    (3:15) 17-C.Lemon pass short middle to 81-R.McMichael for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 3:11 · IND 2 · Score 22-27
    10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-97-J.Denney, Holder-5-D.Jones.