Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos: 2020 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2020 NFL season on 2021-01-03, the Las Vegas Raiders took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 32–31 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 30 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Lock (Denver Broncos) paced the passing game, with +10.49 total EPA, and -3.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Lock (Denver Broncos) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.49 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+39.1% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Denver Broncos changed the game: (6:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Lock · Denver Broncos · Passing · +10.49 total EPA · 49 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Jeudy · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +9.08 total EPA · 8 snaps · +1.14 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Edwards · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +6.49 total EPA · 2 snaps · +3.24 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Jacobs · Las Vegas Raiders · Rushing · +3.36 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Waller · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +2.46 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.22 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Cleveland · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.45 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
7. 7 H. Ruggs · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +2.40 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Carr · Las Vegas Raiders · Rushing · +2.10 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.05 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Denver Broncos — T. Fumagalli (D. Lock pass) (Q1 45:22)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Waller (D. Carr pass) (Q2 41:21)
• Las Vegas Raiders — B. Edwards (D. Carr pass) (Q2 30:32)
• Denver Broncos — M. Gordon (Q4 15:00)
• Las Vegas Raiders — J. Jacobs (Q4 7:34)
• Denver Broncos — J. Jeudy (D. Lock pass) (Q4 6:43)
• Las Vegas Raiders — J. Jacobs (Q4 0:27)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q1 54:08)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Carlson (Q1 49:38)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q3 26:25)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q3 18:10)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 10–3. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the LV 4 (Q1 54:08) — (9:08) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the DEN 15 (Q1 49:38) — (4:38) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the LV 1 (Q1 45:22) — (:22) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 84-T.Fumagalli for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q1 45:17) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin..

The second quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 14–0. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the DEN 28 (Q2 41:21) — (11:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 83-D.Waller for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-J.Attaochu].; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q2 41:15) — 2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the DEN 26 (Q2 30:32) — (:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-B.Edwards for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q2 30:26) — 2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole..

The third quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 6–0. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the LV 18 (Q3 26:25) — (11:25) 8-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the LV 7 (Q3 18:10) — (3:10) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 15–15. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the LV 10 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-24-J.Abram was injured during the play.; Denver Broncos registered a safety from the LV 2 (Q4 14:54) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-D.Lock pass to 10-J.Jeudy is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the DEN 28 (Q4 7:34) — (7:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q4 7:27) — 2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the LV 92 (Q4 6:43) — (6:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q4 6:29); Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the DEN 1 (Q4 0:27) — (:27) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders registered a safety from the DEN 2 (Q4 0:24) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 83-D.Waller is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Denver Broncos (Q4 6:43) — (6:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +39.1% · EPA +8.40]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 0:09) — (:09) 8-B.McManus 63 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-M.Crosby), Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by LV-99-A.Key at LV 43. [WPA -33.3% · EPA -0.74]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 0:24) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 83-D.Waller is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. [WPA +27.4% · EPA +1.05]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 0:27) — (:27) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +23.0% · EPA +3.24]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q3 17:32) — (2:32) 11-H.Ruggs left end to LV 42 for 3 yards (23-M.Ojemudia). FUMBLES (23-M.Ojemudia), RECOVERED by DEN-42-P.Motley at LV 39. 42-P.Motley to LV 34 for 5 yards (61-R.Hudson). LV-11-H.Ruggs was injur [WPA -22.7% · EPA -5.59]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q4 6:43) — (6:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +39.1% · EPA +8.40]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q3 17:32) — (2:32) 11-H.Ruggs left end to LV 42 for 3 yards (23-M.Ojemudia). FUMBLES (23-M.Ojemudia), RECOVERED by DEN-42-P.Motley at LV 39. 42-P.Motley to LV 34 for 5 yards (61-R.Hudson). LV-11-H.Ruggs was injur [WPA -22.7% · EPA -5.59]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 14:14) — (14:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson at LV 44. 22-K.Jackson ran ob at LV 31 for 13 yards (35-T.Riddick). [WPA -7.1% · EPA -4.94]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q2 30:32) — (:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-B.Edwards for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.1% · EPA +4.52]

Quarterback report card

D.Lock led all passers in efficiency for Denver Broncos, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Lock (Denver Broncos) · 49 dropbacks · 51.0% completion · -3.2% CPOE · +0.21 EPA/play · +10.49 total EPA
• D.Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) · 45 dropbacks · 53.3% completion · +3.6% CPOE · +0.03 EPA/play · +1.49 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Las Vegas Raiders +0.01, Denver Broncos -0.00) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Denver Broncos: 14 drives, -0.32 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Las Vegas Raiders: 14 drives, +0.98 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Las Vegas Raiders leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Lock (Denver Broncos) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Lock (DEN) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• D. Carr (LV) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 54:08 · LV 4 · Score 0-3
   (9:08) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
2. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q1 49:38 · DEN 15 · Score 3-3
   (4:38) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
3. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 45:22 · LV 1 · Score 3-9
   (:22) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 84-T.Fumagalli for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 45:17 · LV 15 · Score 3-10
   8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
5. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q2 41:21 · DEN 28 · Score 9-10
   (11:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 83-D.Waller for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-J.Attaochu].
6. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q2 41:15 · DEN 15 · Score 10-10
   2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
7. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q2 30:32 · DEN 26 · Score 16-10
   (:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-B.Edwards for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q2 30:26 · DEN 15 · Score 17-10
   2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
9. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q3 26:25 · LV 18 · Score 17-13
   (11:25) 8-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
10. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q3 18:10 · LV 7 · Score 17-16
    (3:10) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
11. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · LV 10 · Score 17-22
    (15:00) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-24-J.Abram was injured during the play.
12. Denver Broncos Safety (+2) — Q4 14:54 · LV 2 · Score 17-24
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-D.Lock pass to 10-J.Jeudy is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
13. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 7:34 · DEN 28 · Score 23-24
    (7:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q4 7:27 · DEN 15 · Score 24-24
    2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
15. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 6:43 · LV 92 · Score 24-30
    (6:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 6:29 · LV 15 · Score 24-31
    8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. PENALTY on LV-99-A.Key, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
17. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 0:27 · DEN 1 · Score 30-31
    (:27) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Las Vegas Raiders Safety (+2) — Q4 0:24 · DEN 2 · Score 32-31
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 83-D.Waller is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.