Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans: 2021 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season on 2021-12-26, the Houston Texans took care of business against the Los Angeles Chargers, pulling away with a 41–29 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 38 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) paced the passing game, with +9.99 total EPA, and +8.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Mills (Houston Texans) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +18.03 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-13.7% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Los Angeles Chargers changed the game: (4:07) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 36-J.Owens at HOU -1. 36-J.Owens to HOU 6 for 7 yards (5-J.Palmer).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Mills · Houston Texans · Passing · +18.03 total EPA · 30 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Herbert · Los Angeles Chargers · Passing · +9.99 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Burkhead · Houston Texans · Rushing · +9.13 total EPA · 22 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
4. 4 B. Jordan · Houston Texans · Receiving · +7.37 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.84 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Jackson · Los Angeles Chargers · Receiving · +6.11 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
6. 6 N. Collins · Houston Texans · Receiving · +5.39 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.35 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Conley · Houston Texans · Receiving · +5.34 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.78 EPA/play
8. 8 S. Anderson · Los Angeles Chargers · Receiving · +2.82 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.41 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Houston Texans — R. Burkhead (Q1 51:32)
• Los Angeles Chargers — J. Jackson (Q2 41:20)
• Houston Texans — C. Conley (D. Mills pass) (Q2 30:33)
• Houston Texans — R. Burkhead (Q4 13:40)
• Los Angeles Chargers — J. Jackson (Q4 5:54)
• Houston Texans — N. Collins (D. Mills pass) (Q4 2:36)
• Houston Texans — T. Thomas (Q4 1:59)
• Los Angeles Chargers — J. Palmer (J. Herbert pass) (Q4 0:38)

Field goals

• Los Angeles Chargers — D. Hopkins (Q1 56:00)
• Los Angeles Chargers — D. Hopkins (Q1 47:01)
• Houston Texans — D. Eberle (Q2 35:15)
• Los Angeles Chargers — D. Hopkins (Q3 20:46)
• Houston Texans — D. Eberle (Q4 8:57)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Houston Texans won the period 7–6. Los Angeles Chargers connected on a field goal from the HOU 32 (Q1 56:00) — (11:00) 6-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the LAC 25 (Q1 51:32) — (6:32) (Shotgun) 28-R.Burkhead left tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the LAC 15 (Q1 51:25) — 16-D.Eberle extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.; Los Angeles Chargers connected on a field goal from the HOU 28 (Q1 47:01) — (2:01) 6-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long..

The second quarter: Houston Texans won the period 10–6. Los Angeles Chargers found the end zone from the HOU 17 (Q2 41:20) — (11:20) 22-J.Jackson left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the LAC 33 (Q2 35:15) — (5:15) 16-D.Eberle 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the LAC 41 (Q2 30:33) — (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the LAC 15 (Q2 30:27) — 16-D.Eberle extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston..

The third quarter: Los Angeles Chargers won the period 3–0. Los Angeles Chargers connected on a field goal from the HOU 17 (Q3 20:46) — (5:46) 6-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long..

The fourth quarter: Houston Texans won the period 24–14. Houston Texans found the end zone from the LAC 1 (Q4 13:40) — (13:40) 28-R.Burkhead right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the LAC 15 (Q4 13:37) — 16-D.Eberle extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the LAC 7 (Q4 8:57) — (8:57) 16-D.Eberle 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.; Los Angeles Chargers found the end zone from the HOU 9 (Q4 5:54) — (5:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Jackson right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Los Angeles Chargers registered a safety from the HOU 2 (Q4 5:50) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-J.Herbert pass to 87-J.Cook is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the LAC 13 (Q4 2:36) — (2:36) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 12-N.Collins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the LAC 15 (Q4 2:32) — 16-D.Eberle extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the HOU 62 (Q4 1:59); Houston Texans added 1 points from the LAC 15 (Q4 1:49) — 16-D.Eberle extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.; Los Angeles Chargers found the end zone from the HOU 3 (Q4 0:38) — (:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Los Angeles Chargers (Q2 34:07) — (4:07) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 36-J.Owens at HOU -1. 36-J.Owens to HOU 6 for 7 yards (5-J.Palmer). [WPA -13.7% · EPA -3.46]
• Houston Texans (Q2 30:33) — (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.7% · EPA +4.59]
• Los Angeles Chargers (Q4 12:56) — (12:56) 22-J.Jackson up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (55-D.Walker). FUMBLES (55-D.Walker), RECOVERED by HOU-36-J.Owens at HOU 47. 36-J.Owens to LAC 47 for 6 yards (82-S.Anderson). [WPA -9.7% · EPA -5.59]
• Los Angeles Chargers (Q3 25:12) — (10:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 27-J.Kelley pushed ob at HOU 32 for 14 yards (25-D.King). [WPA +9.0% · EPA +2.87]
• Los Angeles Chargers (Q2 42:00) — (12:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen to HOU 17 for 15 yards (24-T.Smith). [WPA +7.6% · EPA +2.12]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Los Angeles Chargers (Q4 1:59) — (1:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Thomas at LAC 48. 37-T.Thomas for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -1.3% · EPA -9.06]
• Los Angeles Chargers (Q4 12:56) — (12:56) 22-J.Jackson up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (55-D.Walker). FUMBLES (55-D.Walker), RECOVERED by HOU-36-J.Owens at HOU 47. 36-J.Owens to LAC 47 for 6 yards (82-S.Anderson). [WPA -9.7% · EPA -5.59]
• Houston Texans (Q2 30:33) — (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.7% · EPA +4.59]
• Los Angeles Chargers (Q2 34:07) — (4:07) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 36-J.Owens at HOU -1. 36-J.Owens to HOU 6 for 7 yards (5-J.Palmer). [WPA -13.7% · EPA -3.46]

Quarterback report card

J.Herbert led all passers in efficiency for Los Angeles Chargers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) · 44 dropbacks · 61.4% completion · +8.0% CPOE · +0.23 EPA/play · +9.99 total EPA
• D.Mills (Houston Texans) · 30 dropbacks · 70.0% completion · +7.6% CPOE · +0.60 EPA/play · +18.03 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Houston Texans held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.21 vs +0.10), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Houston Texans: 10 drives, +18.93 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Los Angeles Chargers: 10 drives, +7.27 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Houston Texans leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. Mills (Houston Texans) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Herbert (LAC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Mills (HOU) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Los Angeles Chargers FG (+3) — Q1 56:00 · HOU 32 · Score 3-0
   (11:00) 6-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.
2. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q1 51:32 · LAC 25 · Score 3-6
   (6:32) (Shotgun) 28-R.Burkhead left tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q1 51:25 · LAC 15 · Score 3-7
   16-D.Eberle extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
4. Los Angeles Chargers FG (+3) — Q1 47:01 · HOU 28 · Score 6-7
   (2:01) 6-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.
5. Los Angeles Chargers TD (+6) — Q2 41:20 · HOU 17 · Score 12-7
   (11:20) 22-J.Jackson left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q2 35:15 · LAC 33 · Score 12-10
   (5:15) 16-D.Eberle 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
7. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q2 30:33 · LAC 41 · Score 12-16
   (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q2 30:27 · LAC 15 · Score 12-17
   16-D.Eberle extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
9. Los Angeles Chargers FG (+3) — Q3 20:46 · HOU 17 · Score 15-17
   (5:46) 6-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.
10. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q4 13:40 · LAC 1 · Score 15-23
    (13:40) 28-R.Burkhead right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q4 13:37 · LAC 15 · Score 15-24
    16-D.Eberle extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
12. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q4 8:57 · LAC 7 · Score 15-27
    (8:57) 16-D.Eberle 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
13. Los Angeles Chargers TD (+6) — Q4 5:54 · HOU 9 · Score 21-27
    (5:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Jackson right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Los Angeles Chargers Safety (+2) — Q4 5:50 · HOU 2 · Score 23-27
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-J.Herbert pass to 87-J.Cook is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
15. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q4 2:36 · LAC 13 · Score 23-33
    (2:36) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 12-N.Collins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q4 2:32 · LAC 15 · Score 23-34
    16-D.Eberle extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
17. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q4 1:59 · HOU 62 · Score 23-40
    (1:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Thomas at LAC 48. 37-T.Thomas for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q4 1:49 · LAC 15 · Score 23-41
    16-D.Eberle extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
19. Los Angeles Chargers TD (+6) — Q4 0:38 · HOU 3 · Score 29-41
    (:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.