Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-23, the Seattle Seahawks took care of business against the Kansas City Chiefs, pulling away with a 38–31 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with +9.79 total EPA, and -2.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +22.75 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-16.8% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Kansas City Chiefs changed the game: (8:48) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams left end to KC 24 for -6 yards (95-D.Jordan). FUMBLES (95-D.Jordan), RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Reed at KC 23. 90-J.Reed to KC 21 for 2 yards (61-M.Morse).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Wilson · Seattle Seahawks · Passing · +22.75 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play
2. 2 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +9.79 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.22 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Baldwin · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +8.47 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.71 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Lockett · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +6.21 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.24 EPA/play
5. 5 C. West · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +3.39 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.13 EPA/play
6. 6 N. Vannett · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +2.72 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.36 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Conley · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +2.54 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.51 EPA/play
8. 8 E. Dickson · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +2.15 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Seattle Seahawks — C. Carson (Q1 54:01)
• Kansas City Chiefs — P. Mahomes (Q2 41:25)
• Seattle Seahawks — N. Vannett (R. Wilson pass) (Q2 35:30)
• Kansas City Chiefs — C. West (P. Mahomes pass) (Q3 20:26)
• Seattle Seahawks — D. Baldwin (R. Wilson pass) (Q3 15:51)
• Seattle Seahawks — E. Dickson (R. Wilson pass) (Q4 7:36)
• Kansas City Chiefs — D. Robinson (P. Mahomes pass) (Q4 4:43)
• Seattle Seahawks — C. Carson (Q4 2:33)

Field goals

• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q1 51:38)
• Seattle Seahawks — S. Janikowski (Q3 24:30)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q4 10:32)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q4 1:23)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Seattle Seahawks won the period 7–3. Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the KC 4 (Q1 54:01) — (9:01) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q1 53:55) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the SEA 36 (Q1 51:38) — (6:38) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the SEA 2 (Q2 41:25) — (11:25) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the SEA 15 (Q2 41:21) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the KC 1 (Q2 35:30) — (5:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 81-N.Vannett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [49-D.Sorensen].; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 35:26) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson..

The third quarter: Seattle Seahawks won the period 10–7. Seattle Seahawks connected on a field goal from the KC 10 (Q3 24:30) — (9:30) 11-S.Janikowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the SEA 25 (Q3 20:26) — (5:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 30-C.West for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the SEA 15 (Q3 20:18) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the KC 27 (Q3 15:51) — (:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q3 15:45) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 14–14. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the SEA 10 (Q4 10:32) — (10:32) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the KC 2 (Q4 7:36) — (7:36) 53-J.Hunt reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 84-E.Dickson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 7:31) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the SEA 11 (Q4 4:43) — (4:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-D.Robinson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Jordan].; Kansas City Chiefs registered a safety from the SEA 2 (Q4 4:36) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-P.Mahomes rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the KC 1 (Q4 2:33) — (2:33) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 2:29) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the SEA 15 (Q4 1:23) — (1:23) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 38:48) — (8:48) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams left end to KC 24 for -6 yards (95-D.Jordan). FUMBLES (95-D.Jordan), RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Reed at KC 23. 90-J.Reed to KC 21 for 2 yards (61-M.Morse). [WPA -16.8% · EPA -5.52]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q3 15:51) — (:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.1% · EPA +3.16]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q3 17:25) — (2:25) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-E.Dickson to KC 29 for 18 yards (20-S.Nelson). [WPA +14.5% · EPA +2.98]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 11:42) — (11:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill ran ob at SEA 4 for 32 yards (28-J.Coleman). [WPA +11.7% · EPA +3.10]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 3:04) — (3:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at KC 21 for 45 yards (35-C.Ward). [WPA +11.3% · EPA +3.33]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 38:48) — (8:48) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams left end to KC 24 for -6 yards (95-D.Jordan). FUMBLES (95-D.Jordan), RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Reed at KC 23. 90-J.Reed to KC 21 for 2 yards (61-M.Morse). [WPA -16.8% · EPA -5.52]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 2:44) — (2:44) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin to KC 1 for 29 yards (35-C.Ward). Penalty on KC-35-C.Ward, Defensive Holding, declined. [WPA +6.6% · EPA +3.79]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q1 46:52) — (1:52) 11-S.Janikowski 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. [WPA -7.2% · EPA -3.51]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q3 25:30) — (10:30) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. PENALTY on KC-24-J.Lucas, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play. [WPA +10.8% · EPA +3.40]

Quarterback report card

P.Mahomes led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 44 dropbacks · 52.3% completion · -2.7% CPOE · +0.22 EPA/play · +9.79 total EPA
• R.Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) · 41 dropbacks · 43.9% completion · +11.2% CPOE · +0.55 EPA/play · +22.75 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Kansas City Chiefs +0.18, Seattle Seahawks +0.20) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Kansas City Chiefs: 11 drives, +14.44 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Seattle Seahawks: 12 drives, +19.98 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Seattle Seahawks leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• R. Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Wilson (SEA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q1 54:01 · KC 4 · Score 0-6
   (9:01) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q1 53:55 · KC 15 · Score 0-7
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
3. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q1 51:38 · SEA 36 · Score 3-7
   (6:38) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
4. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 41:25 · SEA 2 · Score 9-7
   (11:25) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 41:21 · SEA 15 · Score 10-7
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
6. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q2 35:30 · KC 1 · Score 10-13
   (5:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 81-N.Vannett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [49-D.Sorensen].
7. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q2 35:26 · KC 15 · Score 10-14
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
8. Seattle Seahawks FG (+3) — Q3 24:30 · KC 10 · Score 10-17
   (9:30) 11-S.Janikowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
9. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 20:26 · SEA 25 · Score 16-17
   (5:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 30-C.West for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q3 20:18 · SEA 15 · Score 17-17
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
11. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q3 15:51 · KC 27 · Score 17-23
    (:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q3 15:45 · KC 15 · Score 17-24
    11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
13. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q4 10:32 · SEA 10 · Score 20-24
    (10:32) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
14. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q4 7:36 · KC 2 · Score 20-30
    (7:36) 53-J.Hunt reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 84-E.Dickson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q4 7:31 · KC 15 · Score 20-31
    11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
16. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 4:43 · SEA 11 · Score 26-31
    (4:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-D.Robinson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Jordan].
17. Kansas City Chiefs Safety (+2) — Q4 4:36 · SEA 2 · Score 28-31
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-P.Mahomes rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
18. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q4 2:33 · KC 1 · Score 28-37
    (2:33) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
19. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q4 2:29 · KC 15 · Score 28-38
    11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
20. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q4 1:23 · SEA 15 · Score 31-38
    (1:23) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.