Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 2022 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2022 NFL season on 2023-01-07, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Las Vegas Raiders, pulling away with a 31–13 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Stidham (Las Vegas Raiders) paced the passing game, with -5.93 total EPA, and -2.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, H. Renfrow (Las Vegas Raiders) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.41 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+18.4% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Kansas City Chiefs changed the game: (14:22) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson pushed ob at LV 3 for 67 yards (21-A.Robertson).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 H. Renfrow · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +7.41 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.06 EPA/play
2. 2 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +5.54 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
3. 3 I. Pacheco · Kansas City Chiefs · Rushing · +4.45 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
4. 4 Ju. Watson · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +4.41 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.20 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Toney · Kansas City Chiefs · Rushing · +3.81 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.27 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Smith-Schuster · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +2.46 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.23 EPA/play
7. 7 R. Jones · Kansas City Chiefs · Rushing · +2.34 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
8. 8 N. Gray · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +1.52 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.52 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — J. McKinnon (P. Mahomes pass) (Q1 57:58)
• Kansas City Chiefs — R. Jones (Q2 45:00)
• Kansas City Chiefs — K. Toney (Q2 30:53)
• Kansas City Chiefs — I. Pacheco (Q4 11:06)
• Las Vegas Raiders — H. Renfrow (J. Stidham pass) (Q4 6:43)

Field goals

• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Carlson (Q1 52:20)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 30:05)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Carlson (Q3 22:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 7–3. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the LV 2 (Q1 57:58) — (12:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q1 57:52) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the KC 35 (Q1 52:20) — (7:20) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole..

The second quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 17–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the LV 2 (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-R.Jones left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q2 44:56) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the LV 11 (Q2 30:53) — (:53) 19-K.Toney left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q2 30:47) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the LV 26 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend..

The third quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 3–0. Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the KC 20 (Q3 22:00) — (7:00) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the LV 1 (Q4 11:06) — (11:06) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q4 11:03) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the KC 11 (Q4 6:43) — (6:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 6:37) — 2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 59:22) — (14:22) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson pushed ob at LV 3 for 67 yards (21-A.Robertson). [WPA +18.4% · EPA +5.04]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1 46:12) — (1:12) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass deep right intended for 10-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Thornhill at LV 44. 22-J.Thornhill ran ob at LV 44 for no gain. [WPA -6.8% · EPA -2.50]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1 53:03) — (8:03) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham sacked at KC 35 for -7 yards (95-C.Jones). [WPA -6.2% · EPA -2.21]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 49:58) — (4:58) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray to 50 for 14 yards (59-L.Masterson). [WPA +5.5% · EPA +1.52]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q2 44:02) — (14:02) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short middle to 83-D.Waller to LV 47 for 24 yards (47-D.Harris; 22-J.Thornhill). [WPA +5.1% · EPA +2.41]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 59:22) — (14:22) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson pushed ob at LV 3 for 67 yards (21-A.Robertson). [WPA +18.4% · EPA +5.04]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 0:31) — (:31) 4-C.Henne kneels to LV 10 for -1 yards. [EPA -4.33]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 4:31) — (4:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham sacked at LV 34 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones). [WPA -0.0% · EPA -3.25]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 6:43) — (6:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. [WPA -0.0% · EPA +3.13]

Quarterback report card

J.Stidham led all passers in efficiency for Las Vegas Raiders, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Stidham (Las Vegas Raiders) · 52 dropbacks · 42.3% completion · -2.8% CPOE · -0.11 EPA/play · -5.93 total EPA
• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 32 dropbacks · 56.2% completion · +6.7% CPOE · +0.17 EPA/play · +5.54 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Kansas City Chiefs generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.19 vs -0.09), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Kansas City Chiefs: 10 drives, +13.95 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Las Vegas Raiders: 9 drives, -7.31 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• H. Renfrow (Las Vegas Raiders) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Mahomes (KC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q1 57:58 · LV 2 · Score 6-0
   (12:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q1 57:52 · LV 15 · Score 7-0
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
3. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q1 52:20 · KC 35 · Score 7-3
   (7:20) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
4. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · LV 2 · Score 13-3
   (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-R.Jones left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 44:56 · LV 15 · Score 14-3
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
6. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 30:53 · LV 11 · Score 20-3
   (:53) 19-K.Toney left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 30:47 · LV 15 · Score 21-3
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
8. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · LV 26 · Score 24-3
   (:05) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
9. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q3 22:00 · KC 20 · Score 24-6
   (7:00) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
10. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 11:06 · LV 1 · Score 30-6
    (11:06) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 11:03 · LV 15 · Score 31-6
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
12. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 6:43 · KC 11 · Score 31-12
    (6:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
13. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q4 6:37 · KC 15 · Score 31-13
    2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.