Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 2018 Week 13 Recap

Game story

In Week 13 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-02, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Las Vegas Raiders, pulling away with a 40–33 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with +16.26 total EPA, and +4.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +16.26 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+16.0% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Las Vegas Raiders changed the game: Raiders Captains: #4 D.Carr, #27 R.Nelson, #58 K.Wilber, #61 R.Hudson, #98 F.Rucker Chiefs Captains: #11 D.Robinson, #77 A.Wylie, #94 J.Jenkins

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +16.26 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Carr · Las Vegas Raiders · Passing · +15.19 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +12.26 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.94 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Cook · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +7.51 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.94 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Nelson · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +5.36 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Robinson · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +2.91 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.91 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Hill · Kansas City Chiefs · Rushing · +2.78 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.39 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Richard · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +2.15 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Kelce (P. Mahomes pass) (Q1 57:16)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Martin (Q2 31:07)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Kelce (P. Mahomes pass) (Q2 30:12)
• Kansas City Chiefs — S. Ware (Q3 20:52)
• Las Vegas Raiders — J. Cook (D. Carr pass) (Q3 18:33)
• Kansas City Chiefs — D. Harris (P. Mahomes pass) (Q3 15:09)
• Las Vegas Raiders — L. Smith (D. Carr pass) (Q4 10:45)
• Las Vegas Raiders — M. Ateman (D. Carr pass) (Q4 6:49)
• Kansas City Chiefs — C. Conley (P. Mahomes pass) (Q4 1:57)

Field goals

• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q1 52:45)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 37:07)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Carlson (Q3 26:10)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Carlson (Q4 0:34)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 10–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the LV 3 (Q1 57:16) — (12:16) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q1 57:11) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the LV 10 (Q1 52:45) — (7:45) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The second quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 9–7. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the LV 32 (Q2 37:07) — (7:07) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the KC 1 (Q2 31:07) — (1:07) 97-C.McDonald and 76-J.Feliciano reported in as eligible. 28-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 31:04) — 8-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the LV 6 (Q2 30:12) — (:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The third quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 14–9. Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the KC 32 (Q3 26:10) — (11:10) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the LV 1 (Q3 20:52) — (5:52) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 32-S.Ware. 32-S.Ware up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q3 20:48) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the KC 24 (Q3 18:33) — (3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 87-J.Cook for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the LV 13 (Q3 15:09) — (:09) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 84-D.Harris for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q3 15:04) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The fourth quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 17–7. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the KC 1 (Q4 10:45); Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 10:41) — 8-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the KC 9 (Q4 6:49) — (6:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-M.Ateman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 6:46) — 8-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the LV 2 (Q4 1:57) — (1:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-C.Conley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q4 1:54) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the KC 26 (Q4 0:34) — (:34) 8-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1) — Raiders Captains: #4 D.Carr, #27 R.Nelson, #58 K.Wilber, #61 R.Hudson, #98 F.Rucker Chiefs Captains: #11 D.Robinson, #77 A.Wylie, #94 J.Jenkins [WPA +16.0% · EPA -1.54]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 2:25) — (2:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LV 4 for 25 yards (27-R.Nelson). [WPA +11.7% · EPA +2.99]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1 56:23) — (11:23) 28-D.Martin left tackle to LV 49 for 2 yards (97-A.Bailey). FUMBLES (97-A.Bailey), RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at LV 49. 50-J.Houston to LV 49 for no gain (87-J.Cook). [WPA -10.1% · EPA -5.54]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q2 43:12) — (13:12) 33-D.Washington left tackle to KC 30 for -2 yards (98-X.Williams). FUMBLES (98-X.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-44-D.O'Daniel at KC 30. [WPA -8.6% · EPA -5.38]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 58:03) — (13:03) 10-T.Hill left end ran ob at LV 32 for 33 yards (21-G.Conley). [WPA +8.1% · EPA +2.37]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1 56:23) — (11:23) 28-D.Martin left tackle to LV 49 for 2 yards (97-A.Bailey). FUMBLES (97-A.Bailey), RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at LV 49. 50-J.Houston to LV 49 for no gain (87-J.Cook). [WPA -10.1% · EPA -5.54]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q2 43:12) — (13:12) 33-D.Washington left tackle to KC 30 for -2 yards (98-X.Williams). FUMBLES (98-X.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-44-D.O'Daniel at KC 30. [WPA -8.6% · EPA -5.38]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q3 17:24) — (2:24) (Shotgun) 30-J.Richard right tackle to KC 49 for 17 yards (23-K.Fuller). FUMBLES (23-K.Fuller), RECOVERED by KC-49-D.Sorensen at KC 48. 49-D.Sorensen to KC 48 for no gain (75-B.Parker). [WPA -7.3% · EPA -4.38]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 15:33) — (:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-23-N.Nelson, Defensive Offside, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by cont [WPA +6.0% · EPA +3.23]

Quarterback report card

P.Mahomes led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 44 dropbacks · 52.3% completion · +4.5% CPOE · +0.37 EPA/play · +16.26 total EPA
• D.Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) · 44 dropbacks · 65.9% completion · +12.9% CPOE · +0.35 EPA/play · +15.19 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Kansas City Chiefs generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.20 vs +0.06), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Kansas City Chiefs: 12 drives, +17.83 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• Las Vegas Raiders: 13 drives, +5.87 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Mahomes (KC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Carr (LV) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q1 57:16 · LV 3 · Score 6-0
   (12:16) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q1 57:11 · LV 15 · Score 7-0
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
3. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q1 52:45 · LV 10 · Score 10-0
   (7:45) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
4. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 37:07 · LV 32 · Score 13-0
   (7:07) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
5. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q2 31:07 · KC 1 · Score 13-6
   (1:07) 97-C.McDonald and 76-J.Feliciano reported in as eligible. 28-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q2 31:04 · KC 15 · Score 13-7
   8-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.
7. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 30:12 · LV 6 · Score 19-7
   (:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q3 26:10 · KC 32 · Score 19-10
   (11:10) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.
9. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 20:52 · LV 1 · Score 25-10
   (5:52) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 32-S.Ware. 32-S.Ware up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q3 20:48 · LV 15 · Score 26-10
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
11. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q3 18:33 · KC 24 · Score 26-16
    (3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 87-J.Cook for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 15:09 · LV 13 · Score 32-16
    (:09) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 84-D.Harris for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q3 15:04 · LV 15 · Score 33-16
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
14. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 10:45 · KC 1 · Score 33-22
    (10:45) 76-J.Feliciano and 97-C.McDonald reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass short right to 86-L.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [50-J.Houston]. Penalty on KC-38
15. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q4 10:41 · KC 15 · Score 33-23
    8-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.
16. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 6:49 · KC 9 · Score 33-29
    (6:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-M.Ateman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q4 6:46 · KC 15 · Score 33-30
    8-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.
18. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 1:57 · LV 2 · Score 39-30
    (1:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-C.Conley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 1:54 · LV 15 · Score 40-30
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
20. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q4 0:34 · KC 26 · Score 40-33
    (:34) 8-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.