Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2023 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season on 2023-12-24, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 30–12 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) paced the passing game, with +17.24 total EPA, and +7.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, B. Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +17.24 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+10.6% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Tampa Bay Buccaneers changed the game: (10:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to JAX 19 for 22 yards (37-T.Herndon).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 B. Mayfield · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +17.24 total EPA · 40 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +6.97 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Ridley · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +4.57 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.51 EPA/play
4. 4 E. Cooks · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +4.44 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.48 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Godwin · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +3.02 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
6. 6 R. White · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.90 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
7. 7 P. Durham · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +1.93 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.93 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Palmer · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +1.85 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (B. Mayfield pass) (Q2 42:58)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (B. Mayfield pass) (Q2 30:51)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. White (Q3 26:35)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Ridley (T. Lawrence pass) (Q3 15:57)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Ridley (C. Beathard pass) (Q4 4:40)

Field goals

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. McLaughlin (Q1 52:25)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. McLaughlin (Q2 32:30)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. McLaughlin (Q3 18:54)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 3–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the JAX 6 (Q1 52:25) — (7:25) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda..

The second quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 17–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the JAX 3 (Q2 42:58) — (12:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 42:53) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the JAX 13 (Q2 32:30) — (2:30) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the JAX 22 (Q2 30:51) — (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 30:45) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda..

The third quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 10–6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the JAX 2 (Q3 26:35) — (11:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q3 26:30) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the JAX 33 (Q3 18:54) — (3:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the TB 18 (Q3 15:57) — (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 6–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the TB 1 (Q4 4:40) — (4:40) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 0-C.Ridley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 55:11) — (10:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to JAX 19 for 22 yards (37-T.Herndon). [WPA +10.6% · EPA +2.66]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 49:09) — (4:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 11-P.Washington INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at TB 34. 45-D.White to TB 44 for 10 yards (17-E.Engram). [WPA -9.6% · EPA -3.45]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 39:09) — (9:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 14-E.Cooks ran ob at TB 26 for 13 yards (35-J.Dean). [WPA +7.6% · EPA +2.13]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 58:45) — (13:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 46 for 18 yards (5-A.Cisco). [WPA +7.0% · EPA +2.58]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 59:27) — (14:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 28 for -5 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). [WPA -6.9% · EPA -1.74]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 28:39) — (13:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 39 for -10 yards (sack split by 0-Y.Diaby and 45-D.White). FUMBLES (0-Y.Diaby) [45-D.White], RECOVERED by TB-0-Y.Diaby at JAX 37. [WPA -3.5% · EPA -6.31]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 13:09) — (13:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 17-E.Engram to JAX 33 for 13 yards (27-Z.McCollum; 29-C.Izien). FUMBLES (27-Z.McCollum), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at JAX 34. [WPA -0.2% · EPA -3.67]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 49:09) — (4:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 11-P.Washington INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at TB 34. 45-D.White to TB 44 for 10 yards (17-E.Engram). [WPA -9.6% · EPA -3.45]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 0:34) — (:34) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to JAX 13 for -1 yards. [EPA -3.43]

Quarterback report card

B.Mayfield led all passers in efficiency for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 40 dropbacks · 65.0% completion · +7.2% CPOE · +0.43 EPA/play · +17.24 total EPA
• T.Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 36 dropbacks · 47.2% completion · -4.8% CPOE · -0.03 EPA/play · -1.19 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.06 vs -0.19), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 10 drives, -14.39 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11 drives, +5.70 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• B. Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• B. Mayfield (TB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Lawrence (JAX) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q1 52:25 · JAX 6 · Score 0-3
   (7:25) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 42:58 · JAX 3 · Score 0-9
   (12:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 42:53 · JAX 15 · Score 0-10
   4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q2 32:30 · JAX 13 · Score 0-13
   (2:30) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 30:51 · JAX 22 · Score 0-19
   (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 30:45 · JAX 15 · Score 0-20
   4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q3 26:35 · JAX 2 · Score 0-26
   (11:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q3 26:30 · JAX 15 · Score 0-27
   4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q3 18:54 · JAX 33 · Score 0-30
   (3:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 15:57 · TB 18 · Score 6-30
    (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 4:40 · TB 1 · Score 12-30
    (4:40) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 0-C.Ridley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.