Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 2007 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2007 NFL season on 2008-01-05, the Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business against the Pittsburgh Steelers, pulling away with a 31–29 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 22 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) paced the passing game, with +0.89 total EPA, and +3.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, H. Ward (Pittsburgh Steelers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.53 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-28.4% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Pittsburgh Steelers changed the game: (:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 21 for -7 yards (93-B.McCray). FUMBLES (93-B.McCray) [93-B.McCray], RECOVERED by JAX-66-D.Landri at PIT 21. 66-D.Landri to PIT 21 for no gain (44-N.Dav

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 H. Ward · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +9.53 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
2. 2 H. Miller · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +8.84 total EPA · 8 snaps · +1.10 EPA/play
3. 3 S. Holmes · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +6.79 total EPA · 3 snaps · +2.26 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Jones-Drew · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +5.52 total EPA · 1 snaps · +5.52 EPA/play
5. 5 E. Wilford · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.55 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.27 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Northcutt · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.45 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.45 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Davis · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +1.13 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
8. 8 B. Roethlisberger · Pittsburgh Steelers · Passing · +0.89 total EPA · 53 snaps · +0.02 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Pittsburgh Steelers — N. Davenport (Q1 55:06)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — F. Taylor (Q1 54:47)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — R. Mathis (Q2 40:31)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones-Drew (D. Garrard pass) (Q2 38:42)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones-Drew (Q3 19:44)
• Pittsburgh Steelers — S. Holmes (B. Roethlisberger pass) (Q4 15:00)
• Pittsburgh Steelers — H. Miller (B. Roethlisberger pass) (Q4 10:29)
• Pittsburgh Steelers — N. Davenport (Q4 6:28)

Field goals

• Pittsburgh Steelers — J. Reed (Q3 24:28)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q4 0:40)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Pittsburgh Steelers found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q1 55:06) — (10:06) 44-N.Davenport up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Pittsburgh Steelers added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q1 55:03) — 3-J.Reed extra point is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-9-D.Sepulveda.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the PIT 1 (Q1 54:47) — (9:47) 28-F.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the PIT 2 (Q1 54:39) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

The second quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 14–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the JAX 52 (Q2 40:31); Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the PIT 2 (Q2 40:19) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the PIT 43 (Q2 38:42) — (8:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 32-M.Jones-Drew for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the PIT 2 (Q2 38:34) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

The third quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–3. Pittsburgh Steelers connected on a field goal from the JAX 10 (Q3 24:28) — (9:28) 3-J.Reed 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-9-D.Sepulveda.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the PIT 10 (Q3 19:44) — (4:44) 32-M.Jones-Drew left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the PIT 2 (Q3 19:39) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

The fourth quarter: Pittsburgh Steelers won the period 19–3. Pittsburgh Steelers found the end zone from the JAX 37 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 10-S.Holmes for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Pittsburgh Steelers added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q4 14:53) — 3-J.Reed extra point is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-9-D.Sepulveda.; Pittsburgh Steelers found the end zone from the JAX 14 (Q4 10:29) — (10:29) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 83-H.Miller for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Pittsburgh Steelers found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q4 6:28) — (6:28) #68 Kemoeatu reports as eligible receiver. 44-N.Davenport up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the PIT 7 (Q4 0:40) — (:40) (Field Goal formation) 10-J.Scobee 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q4 0:29) — (:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 21 for -7 yards (93-B.McCray). FUMBLES (93-B.McCray) [93-B.McCray], RECOVERED by JAX-66-D.Landri at PIT 21. 66-D.Landri to PIT 21 for no gain (44-N.Dav [WPA -28.4% · EPA -2.37]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 1:56) — (1:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard scrambles up the middle to PIT 11 for 32 yards (23-T.Carter). [WPA +27.2% · EPA +3.63]
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q2 40:31) — (10:31) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right intended for 10-S.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mathis at JAX 37. 27-R.Mathis for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-33-G.Russell, Low Block, 15 yards, enforc [WPA -24.0% · EPA -8.99]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 9:08) — (9:08) 9-D.Garrard pass deep right intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 24-I.Taylor at JAX 47. 24-I.Taylor to JAX 16 for 31 yards (9-D.Garrard). [WPA -19.9% · EPA -4.15]
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q4 2:50) — (2:50) (Punt formation) 9-D.Sepulveda punts 40 yards to JAX 33, Center-60-G.Warren. 86-D.Northcutt to JAX 49 for 16 yards (60-G.Warren). [WPA -15.2% · EPA -1.09]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q2 40:31) — (10:31) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right intended for 10-S.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mathis at JAX 37. 27-R.Mathis for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-33-G.Russell, Low Block, 15 yards, enforc [WPA -24.0% · EPA -8.99]
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 10-S.Holmes for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.3% · EPA +6.52]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 55:03) — 3-J.Reed kicks 67 yards from PIT 30 to JAX 3. 32-M.Jones-Drew to PIT 1 for 96 yards (37-A.Madison). [WPA +13.2% · EPA +6.18]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 38:42) — (8:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 32-M.Jones-Drew for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.6% · EPA +5.52]

Quarterback report card

B.Roethlisberger led all passers in efficiency for Pittsburgh Steelers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) · 53 dropbacks · 54.7% completion · +3.7% CPOE · +0.02 EPA/play · +0.89 total EPA
• D.Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 29 dropbacks · 31.0% completion · -13.9% CPOE · -0.04 EPA/play · -1.11 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Jacksonville Jaguars generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.00 vs -0.06), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 14 drives, -0.11 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 13 drives, -5.42 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Jacksonville Jaguars leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• H. Ward (Pittsburgh Steelers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• B. Roethlisberger (PIT) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Garrard (JAX) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers TD (+6) — Q1 55:06 · JAX 1 · Score 0-6
   (10:06) 44-N.Davenport up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers XP (+1) — Q1 55:03 · JAX 2 · Score 0-7
   3-J.Reed extra point is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-9-D.Sepulveda.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 54:47 · PIT 1 · Score 6-7
   (9:47) 28-F.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 54:39 · PIT 2 · Score 7-7
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 40:31 · JAX 52 · Score 13-7
   (10:31) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right intended for 10-S.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mathis at JAX 37. 27-R.Mathis for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-3
6. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 40:19 · PIT 2 · Score 14-7
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 38:42 · PIT 43 · Score 20-7
   (8:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 32-M.Jones-Drew for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 38:34 · PIT 2 · Score 21-7
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers FG (+3) — Q3 24:28 · JAX 10 · Score 21-10
   (9:28) 3-J.Reed 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-9-D.Sepulveda.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 19:44 · PIT 10 · Score 27-10
    (4:44) 32-M.Jones-Drew left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 19:39 · PIT 2 · Score 28-10
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · JAX 37 · Score 28-16
    (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 10-S.Holmes for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers XP (+1) — Q4 14:53 · JAX 2 · Score 28-17
    3-J.Reed extra point is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-9-D.Sepulveda.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers TD (+6) — Q4 10:29 · JAX 14 · Score 28-23
    (10:29) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 83-H.Miller for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers TD (+6) — Q4 6:28 · JAX 1 · Score 28-29
    (6:28) #68 Kemoeatu reports as eligible receiver. 44-N.Davenport up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 0:40 · PIT 7 · Score 31-29
    (:40) (Field Goal formation) 10-J.Scobee 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.