Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets: 2021 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season on 2021-12-26, the New York Jets took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 26–21 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 16 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with +10.14 total EPA, and +11.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.14 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-33.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones (40-J.Guidry). Penalty on JAX, Illegal Shift, declined.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Lawrence · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +10.14 total EPA · 45 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
2. 2 Z. Wilson · New York Jets · Passing · +8.27 total EPA · 26 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
3. 3 L. Treadwell · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +5.80 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.16 EPA/play
4. 4 B. Berrios · New York Jets · Receiving · +4.98 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play
5. 5 Mi. Carter · New York Jets · Rushing · +4.49 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
6. 6 J. O'Shaughnessy · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +3.78 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Wingard · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +2.80 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.80 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Austin · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.80 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.40 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New York Jets — Z. Wilson (Q1 49:08)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — T. Lawrence (Q2 43:16)
• New York Jets — B. Berrios (Q2 43:08)
• New York Jets — C. McDermott (Z. Wilson pass) (Q4 9:24)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — D. Ogunbowale (Q4 5:28)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Wright (Q1 53:15)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Wright (Q2 38:19)
• New York Jets — E. Pineiro (Q3 24:51)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Wright (Q3 15:29)
• New York Jets — E. Pineiro (Q4 1:49)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New York Jets won the period 6–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the NYJ 2 (Q1 53:15) — (8:15) 15-M.Wright 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; New York Jets found the end zone from the JAX 52 (Q1 49:08) — (4:08) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles right end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The second quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 9–7. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the NYJ 3 (Q2 43:16); New York Jets found the end zone from the JAX 35 (Q2 43:08) — 9-L.Cooke kicks 67 yards from JAX 35 to NYJ -2. 10-B.Berrios for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 42:57) — 15-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the NYJ 27 (Q2 38:19) — (8:19) 15-M.Wright 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. New York Jets connected on a field goal from the JAX 24 (Q3 24:51) — (9:51) 15-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the NYJ 21 (Q3 15:29) — (:29) 15-M.Wright 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

The fourth quarter: New York Jets won the period 10–6. New York Jets found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q4 9:24) — (9:24) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 69-C.McDermott for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q4 9:16) — 15-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the NYJ 1 (Q4 5:28) — (5:28) 72-W.Little and 90-M.Brown reported in as eligible. 33-D.Ogunbowale left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets connected on a field goal from the JAX 1 (Q4 1:49) — (1:49) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 15-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 0:12) — (:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones (40-J.Guidry). Penalty on JAX, Illegal Shift, declined. [WPA -33.8% · EPA -3.16]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 0:41) — (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 5 for 26 yards (26-B.Echols). [WPA +26.3% · EPA +2.62]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 22:15) — (7:15) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -19 yards (57-C.Mosley). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley) [57-C.Mosley], RECOVERED by NYJ-54-R.Blair at JAX 19. 54-R.Blair to JAX 13 for 6 yards (65-B.Linder). [WPA -20.1% · EPA -7.60]
• New York Jets (Q2 43:08) — 9-L.Cooke kicks 67 yards from JAX 35 to NYJ -2. 10-B.Berrios for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +19.1% · EPA +5.55]
• New York Jets (Q1 49:08) — (4:08) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles right end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.8% · EPA +4.98]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 22:15) — (7:15) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -19 yards (57-C.Mosley). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley) [57-C.Mosley], RECOVERED by NYJ-54-R.Blair at JAX 19. 54-R.Blair to JAX 13 for 6 yards (65-B.Linder). [WPA -20.1% · EPA -7.60]
• New York Jets (Q2 43:08) — 9-L.Cooke kicks 67 yards from JAX 35 to NYJ -2. 10-B.Berrios for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +19.1% · EPA +5.55]
• New York Jets (Q1 49:08) — (4:08) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles right end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.8% · EPA +4.98]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 45:21) — (:21) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 18-L.Treadwell to NYJ 19 for 20 yards (1-K.Nacua). [WPA +11.5% · EPA +3.61]

Quarterback report card

T.Lawrence led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 45 dropbacks · 57.8% completion · +11.1% CPOE · +0.23 EPA/play · +10.14 total EPA
• Z.Wilson (New York Jets) · 26 dropbacks · 53.8% completion · -3.0% CPOE · +0.32 EPA/play · +8.27 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New York Jets held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.18 vs +0.12), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 9 drives, +10.92 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• New York Jets: 9 drives, +13.03 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New York Jets leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Lawrence (JAX) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q1 53:15 · NYJ 2 · Score 3-0
   (8:15) 15-M.Wright 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
2. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q1 49:08 · JAX 52 · Score 3-6
   (4:08) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles right end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 43:16 · NYJ 3 · Score 9-6
   (13:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right guard to NYJ 1 for 2 yards (41-J.Pinnock). FUMBLES (41-J.Pinnock), recovered by JAX-76-W.Richardson at NYJ -2.
4. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q2 43:08 · JAX 35 · Score 9-12
   9-L.Cooke kicks 67 yards from JAX 35 to NYJ -2. 10-B.Berrios for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q2 42:57 · JAX 15 · Score 9-13
   15-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 38:19 · NYJ 27 · Score 12-13
   (8:19) 15-M.Wright 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
7. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q3 24:51 · JAX 24 · Score 12-16
   (9:51) 15-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q3 15:29 · NYJ 21 · Score 15-16
   (:29) 15-M.Wright 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
9. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q4 9:24 · JAX 1 · Score 15-22
   (9:24) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 69-C.McDermott for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q4 9:16 · JAX 15 · Score 15-23
    15-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 5:28 · NYJ 1 · Score 21-23
    (5:28) 72-W.Little and 90-M.Brown reported in as eligible. 33-D.Ogunbowale left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q4 1:49 · JAX 1 · Score 21-26
    (1:49) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 15-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.