Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2019 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season on 2019-11-17, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 33–13 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 15 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

N. Foles (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with -8.24 total EPA, and +1.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Mack (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.68 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+10.5% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (12:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 33-J.Williams to JAX 45 for 31 yards (94-D.Smoot).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Mack · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +5.68 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Williams · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +5.60 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Williams · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.83 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.83 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Johnson · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.79 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Brissett · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +2.66 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.08 EPA/play
6. 6 K. Cole · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.10 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Rogers · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +1.10 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.10 EPA/play
8. 8 N. Hines · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +0.98 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.24 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Jacksonville Jaguars — D. Chark (N. Foles pass) (Q1 52:02)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Mack (Q1 45:45)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Johnson (J. Brissett pass) (Q3 23:54)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Brissett (Q3 16:04)
• Indianapolis Colts — N. Hines (Q4 12:46)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — D. Chark (N. Foles pass) (Q4 1:05)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 38:30)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 34 (Q1 52:02) — (7:02) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q1 51:53) — 4-J.Lambo extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 13 (Q1 45:45) — (:45) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 45:35) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 3–0. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 16 (Q2 38:30) — (8:30) 4-A.Vinatieri 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q3 23:54) — (8:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 83-M.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q3 23:46) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 5 (Q3 16:04) — (1:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q3 15:58) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 9–6. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 7 (Q4 12:46) — (12:46) (Shotgun) 21-N.Hines up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q4 12:42) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 20 (Q4 1:05) — (1:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts registered a safety from the IND 2 (Q4 0:59).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 27:43) — (12:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 33-J.Williams to JAX 45 for 31 yards (94-D.Smoot). [WPA +10.5% · EPA +3.83]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 30:57) — (:57) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep right intended for 17-D.Chark Jr. INTERCEPTED by 34-R.Ya-Sin at IND 42. 34-R.Ya-Sin to IND 42 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook). [WPA -9.5% · EPA -2.00]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 45:45) — (:45) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.5% · EPA +2.18]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 52:02) — (7:02) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.3% · EPA +3.62]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 53:31) — (8:31) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short left to 12-D.Westbrook to IND 39 for 15 yards (23-K.Moore II). [WPA +8.8% · EPA +2.05]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 15:18) — (:18) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to IND 30, Center-46-M.Orzech. 58-B.Okereke MUFFS catch, touched at IND 30, RECOVERED by JAX-54-D.Payne at IND 29. 54-D.Payne to IND 29 for no gain (30- [WPA +2.4% · EPA +5.24]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 14:57) — (14:57) 4-J.Lambo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. [WPA -1.9% · EPA -3.96]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 27:43) — (12:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 33-J.Williams to JAX 45 for 31 yards (94-D.Smoot). [WPA +10.5% · EPA +3.83]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 52:02) — (7:02) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.3% · EPA +3.62]

Quarterback report card

N.Foles led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• N.Foles (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 53 dropbacks · 62.3% completion · +1.9% CPOE · -0.16 EPA/play · -8.24 total EPA
• J.Brissett (Indianapolis Colts) · 32 dropbacks · 46.9% completion · +3.8% CPOE · +0.08 EPA/play · +2.66 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Indianapolis Colts held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.16 vs -0.13), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Indianapolis Colts: 11 drives, +12.66 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 12 drives, -10.60 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Mack (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Brissett (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 52:02 · IND 34 · Score 6-0
   (7:02) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 51:53 · IND 15 · Score 7-0
   4-J.Lambo extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
3. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 45:45 · JAX 13 · Score 7-6
   (:45) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 45:35 · JAX 15 · Score 7-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
5. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 38:30 · JAX 16 · Score 7-10
   (8:30) 4-A.Vinatieri 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
6. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 23:54 · JAX 1 · Score 7-16
   (8:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 83-M.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 23:46 · JAX 15 · Score 7-17
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
8. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 16:04 · JAX 5 · Score 7-23
   (1:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 15:58 · JAX 15 · Score 7-24
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
10. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 12:46 · JAX 7 · Score 7-30
    (12:46) (Shotgun) 21-N.Hines up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 12:42 · JAX 15 · Score 7-31
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 1:05 · IND 20 · Score 13-31
    (1:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Indianapolis Colts Safety (+2) — Q4 0:59 · IND 2 · Score 13-33
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-N.Foles pass to 18-C.Conley is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 58-B.Okereke intercepted